Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

gtsmith · #441 Postby **gtsmith** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:28 am

Where did the ULL to the north of it go? Seems to have dissipated.

ConvergenceZone · #442 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:28 am

Sanibel wrote:I don't see any reason to hope for a weak TD that gets dragged across that much of Cuba.

well, it's not like it's going to be over Cuba near as long as they originally thought. It will be back off the coast later tonight and if it goes further North, then it will be off the coast even sooner. I can understand now why they think NC will be a bigger threat at this point.

#443 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:28 am

CocoCreek wrote:Bryan Norcross, on CBS4 in Miami is on, (special news coverage) and said it hasn't been said enough that this is the real deal and has the potential to be worse than hurricane Wilma was last year for some part of the SE FL area.

I agree with him 100% - people are just looking at the now and seeing a weak system but that could really change.

#444 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:30 am

latest frames show some new deep reds forming just south of Cuba - and the convection is not only sustaining but you can see it expanding outwards - a sign it is trying to get its act together....

I really think this is the real deal folks for those in South Florida.

ConvergenceZone · #445 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:30 am

gatorcane wrote:
CocoCreek wrote:Bryan Norcross, on CBS4 in Miami is on, (special news coverage) and said it hasn't been said enough that this is the real deal and has the potential to be worse than hurricane Wilma was last year for some part of the SE FL area.

I agree with him 100% - people are just looking at the now and seeing a weak system but that could really change.

gator, did ya gas up just in case?

...I guess power outages can be a concern too, so I bet there's quite a run for food at the grocery stores.

cpdaman · #446 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:31 am

VERY TRUE

but as sanibel said watch the convection the center is not firing as much while the convection to the east looks impressive. THE LLC may undergo some serious problems which would make a bigger difference in the future intensity than wether it comes off the coast as a 35 mph depression or a 45-50 storm

Sanibel · #447 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:32 am

That's why this one is a bugger because it still hasn't expended its full potential. The Florida Straits are known to rapidly intensify storms. So Norcross is right, this could bomb or it could poof.

The worst ones are storms that arrive with full bombing potential yet untapped.

The wild card here is 2006 isn't boosting storms. But low storm years sometimes breed single monsters.

jhamps10 · #448 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:32 am

ok, Gee CNN needs to get a life, compairing a path that could casue bisucane bay to fill up like Lake Pontrane did during Katrina. 2 words, GET REAL!!!! This is not katrina.

Website · #449 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:33 am

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS
AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

#450 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:33 am

jhamps10 wrote:ok, Gee CNN needs to get a life, compairing a path that could casue bisucane bay to fill up like Lake Pontrane did during Katrina. 2 words, GET REAL!!!! This is not katrina.

Yes very irresponsible of them to hype it up like that :grr:

As far as Gas, yet I just did and the lines are *long* here in SE Palm Beach County (Boca Raton)

#451 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:34 am

jhamps10 wrote:ok, Gee CNN needs to get a life, compairing a path that could casue bisucane bay to fill up like Lake Pontrane did during Katrina. 2 words, GET REAL!!!! This is not katrina.

But let me tell you, that attracks a lot of attention from the public and that's what they are after.

ConvergenceZone · #452 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:34 am

Sanibel wrote:That's why this one is a bugger because it still hasn't expended its full potential. The Florida Straits are known to rapidly intensify storms. So Norcross is right, this could bomb or it could poof.

The worst ones are storms that arrive with full bombing potential yet untapped.

The wild card here is 2006 isn't boosting storms. But low storm years sometimes breed single monsters.

this has been a very frustrating storm...Talk about rollercoaster of emotions all weekend. I'm emotionally drained from following this one... :lol:

Website · #453 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:37 am

Directly over Southeast Florida Wednesday Morning.

ConvergenceZone · #454 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:37 am

gatorcane wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:ok, Gee CNN needs to get a life, compairing a path that could casue bisucane bay to fill up like Lake Pontrane did during Katrina. 2 words, GET REAL!!!! This is not katrina.

Yes very irresponsible of them to hype it up like that

As far as Gas, yet I just did and the lines are *long* here in SE Palm Beach County (Boca Raton)

well, hopefully if this thing does develop, you'll be safe gator....I'm sure at the very least you guys are going to get dumped on with heavy rains and breezy conditions...

CocoCreek · #455 Postby **CocoCreek** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:37 am

New 11AM NHC track is out and it moved East. Projecting a Category 1 over the SE FL area (right over Miami).

ConvergenceZone · #456 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:39 am

CocoCreek wrote:New 11AM NHC track is out and it moved East. Projecting a Category 1 over the SE FL area (right over Miami).

bingo! there it is...good call gator.........

#457 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:39 am

I think the track may shift a lil more east in future runs UNLESS the high pushes em west more..

cpdaman · #458 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:40 am

hurakan that is very true and the public needs to take this MUCH MORE SERIOUSLY since

1. it has the potential to BOMB,

2. and earlier forecasts of it going west and the current low level winds have most people not understanding how fast they may have to react

this has the POTENTIAL to be a DISASTER. for the above reasons this is not fear mongering this is reality

p.s while this is not what i would say is more than 50 percent i would put it at about 1 and 4 25% that this thing could "surprise S FL and do some real damage"

i pray it does not

#459 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:43 am

A SE Florida and NC hit - amazing if that verifies :eek:

CocoCreek · #460 Postby **CocoCreek** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:45 am

cpdaman wrote:hurakan that is very true and the public needs to take this MUCH MORE SERIOUSLY since

1. it has the potential to BOMB,

2. and earlier forecasts of it going west and the current low level winds have most people not understanding how fast they may have to react

this has the POTENTIAL to be a DISASTER. for the above reasons this is not fear mongering this is reality

p.s while this is not what i would say is more than 50 percent i would put it at about 1 and 4 25% that this thing could "surprise S FL and do some real damage"

i pray it does not

This is definitely true. These kinds of storms are the worst for getting the public to prepare. If your going to have to contend with a storm, it's almost better to have an already intense hurricane that grabs peoples' attention early out and then weakens, than a weak one that ramps up quickly and catches people off guard. This could be one of the latter unfortunately.

Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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