Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

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wjs3
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#61 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:16 am

1935 Cane--one of my favorite websites--

http://www.keyshistory.org/35-hurr-homepage.html

And form it, the monthly weather review write up of the hurricane. Awesome stuff. Definitely deepened rapidly!

http://www.keyshistory.org/35-hurr-monthly-review.html

Great reading. A real labor of love.
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#62 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:16 am

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html
You guys gotta check this out. Look at the low level clouds streaming into the storm from the southeast side. I don't think that is a good thing. Looks like the low level convergence is pretty good.
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#63 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:16 am

Looking at the latest satellite loop it looks to me like Ernesto is already
trying to get it's act together. I would not down play this or any other tropical
system based on what you are seeing now. I would not be surprised at all if Ernesto went from what it is now to a Cat.2 or 3 hurricane before landfall. I guess some of you forget how fast these things can wind up in favorable conditions.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
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#64 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:17 am

jschlitz wrote:
I asked about this ULL twice last night and didn't get a single response :roll:



Nice forecasting on your part!
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#65 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:17 am

Ah comparisons to the great 1935 Labor Day storm are surfacing... :eek:
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#66 Postby jhamps10 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:17 am

I have a good question, just how warm ARE the SST's in the straights? and is it me, or am I seeing some stronger development near the north coast?
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#67 Postby Droop12 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:17 am

Plenty of inflow, the outflow is being restricted for now on the NW side due to the UL.
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#68 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:17 am

jhamps10 wrote:I have a good question, just how warm ARE the SST's in the straights? and is it me, or am I seeing some stronger development near the north coast?


86-88F in the FL straits.
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#69 Postby Droop12 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:19 am

gatorcane wrote:Ah comparisons to the great 1935 Labor Day storm are surfacing... :eek:

Yea, nobody is forecasting that so dont worry. It was only used as an example as to how fast things can wind up in the Straights.
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#70 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:19 am

I think we are about ready to see the more solid NW movement...you can see the coulds streaming from East to West pretty rapidly just north of Cuba.....

Just my thinking.
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#71 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:19 am

gatorcane wrote:Ah comparisons to the great 1935 Labor Day storm are surfacing... :eek:


Well, to be clear, I do not mean to make such a comparison--between Ernesto and 1935. but since it came up... I just love that website and find it interesting, as a tropical enthusiast, to read about the context of (and see images of) one of the greatest storms ever.
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#72 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:19 am

I think that robust convection is telling us we are looking a dangerous storm reorganizing itself for a Gulf Stream run.
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#73 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:19 am

Come on gator cane...you should have SEC football on your mind...
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#74 Postby Droop12 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:20 am

Good thing I'll be home later tonight after 1:30 to see what happens.
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#75 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:20 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
You guys gotta check this out. Look at the low level clouds streaming into the storm from the southeast side. I don't think that is a good thing. Looks like the low level convergence is pretty good.


I noticed this too, it's like it's sucking in that warm water through a straw..hehe ;)
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#76 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:21 am

Stormcenter wrote:Looking at the latest satellite loop it looks to me like Ernesto is already
trying to get it's act together. I would not down play this or any other tropical
system based on what you are seeing now. I would not be surprised at all if Ernesto went from what it is now to a Cat.2 or 3 hurricane before landfall. I guess some of you forget how fast these things can wind up in favorable conditions.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html


actually, the national hurricane center his morning eluded to exactly what you are saying in their discussion....So yep, you are correct, just never know...
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#77 Postby Regit » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:22 am

Local met here in Myrtle Beach just mentioned that it looks like the center is reforming to the south of Cuba. Is he seeing something that no one else is? Or maybe he meant to say north.
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#78 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:23 am

wjs3 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
I asked about this ULL twice last night and didn't get a single response :roll:


Nice forecasting on your part!


Huh? That doesn't make any sense?!?!
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#79 Postby Bane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:24 am

regit, he probably meant to say north.
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wjs3
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#80 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:24 am

jschlitz wrote:
wjs3 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
I asked about this ULL twice last night and didn't get a single response :roll:


Nice forecasting on your part!


Huh? That doesn't make any sense?!?!


I mean nice job noticing it. I didn't. Trying to compliment here.
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