Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

Stratosphere747 · #141 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:09 pm

It's there Destruction...

Eastern half is looking impressive, but he western side is still interacting with Cuba.

Regit · #142 Postby **Regit** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:12 pm

Take a look at the loop of Ernesto...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Then look at this graphic. The circled area appears to be the center.

#143 Postby **Noah** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:14 pm

Can Ernie stay on a west motion and not turn east? Meaning stay WNW and come out in the gulf?

#144 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:15 pm

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

ConvergenceZone · #145 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:16 pm

okay, what the heck! does it look like it's just sitting here? is it moving east? whta the heck is it doing? check out the below loop. I can't make heads or tails of this frustrating storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Zadok · #146 Postby **Zadok** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:16 pm

I think the center is relocating to the south.

#147 Postby **THead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:16 pm

Regit wrote:Take a look at the loop of Ernesto...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Then look at this graphic. The circled area appears to be the center.

Hmm, pretty far east of the next forecast point. Maybe the "it'll never hit the fla. peninsula" people were right after all.

I'm still expecting to see more west in his movement very soon, looking at the flow ahead of him. Doesn't seem possible he can continue with this much north in his track, but we know how that goes....

chris_fit · #148 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:17 pm

From the Satelite it looks better than it did when it was near Haiti. Convenction firing north of the "center" out over the warm waters. It should get it's act quickly fairly soon. IMO.

DESTRUCTION5 · #149 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:17 pm

AJC3 wrote:Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

Ohh that will make us feel better..LOL

MiamiensisWx · #150 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:19 pm

Viewing the latest loops, it appears that a slight northwesterly component of the area of the possible LLC may be beginning to occur. See this loop that is from here. It also appears that mid-level shear from the Bahamas ULL may be lessening slightly.

#151 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:20 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Viewing the latest loops, it appears that a slight northwesterly component of the area of the possible LLC may be beginning to occur. See this loop that is from here. It also appears that mid-level shear from the Bahamas ULL may be lessening slightly.

Yes I agree 100% on both claims. Glad somebody is seeing this too.

#152 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:29 pm

As Cape Verde mentioned this loop shows the UL north of the system in the Bahamas that is racing to the West. Conditions should be near ideal for development very soon. That UL is also partly why there are some showers and storms firing now in the Bahamas as it is interacting with Ernesto.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

#153 Postby **Noah** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:30 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Viewing the latest loops, it appears that a slight northwesterly component of the area of the possible LLC may be beginning to occur. See this loop that is from here. It also appears that mid-level shear from the Bahamas ULL may be lessening slightly.

slight northwesterly component of the area of the possible LLC.. This means?

Sanibel · #154 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:32 pm

"S" shape taking shape with that beefing NW quad.

Look for this to strengthen rapidly once it gets over water.

MiamiensisWx · #155 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:33 pm

Noah wrote:slight northwesterly component of the area of the possible LLC.. This means?

It means that as the ULL has retrograded west-southwest, mid-level ridging has built back westward slightly, allowing a more northwestward turn component of Ernesto.

Grease Monkey · #156 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:34 pm

I just don't see it strenghthening rapidly at this point. Plus there's a lot of try air ahead of his path.

Damar91 · #157 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:34 pm

Also looking at the motion of the clouds coming from the Atlantic, a NW direction should be taking place. IMO. For what it is worth, people are really taking this seriously here in Coral Springs. Sam's is a nightmare!

#158 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:34 pm

CVW.. whatcha think about the intensity forecast, the 11am brought it to just under Cat1 on SE FL landfall, think any diff?

#159 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:34 pm

Looking at the latest visible it does appear there is some kind of mid-level rotation or that the center has "jumped" to just offshore cuba:
22N 77W

cpdaman · #160 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:35 pm

yes but gator cane i think this storm looks bette than it really is

i say 2 pm update will have 1008mb 40 mph trop storm (really td)

the souther bahamas convection is from the ull interacting with ernesto and the real llc appears to only have a weak reflection as AJC3 pointed out

it's a waiting game

Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

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