Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[Normandy]

THis is so confusing.

Im seeing a LLC that is moving westward over Cuba, but looking at a long VIS loop i have no idea how Ernesto could have relocated there.

[wxman57]

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

I agree on the center reformation. There's no LLC I can find at present over Cuba. Satellite indicates a clear MLC along the northern Cuba coast. I'm sure the LLC will reform up there in the next 6-12 hours.

My gut feeling is that Ernesto may miss Florida to the east then pull a Dennis of 1999, blocked by high pressure and stalled for days while intensifying off the Carolinas.

[tgenius]

And no Recon over land (For safety + Castro not allowing) doesn't help matters much does it?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

That's what i've been thinking as well.

[Normandy]

THis is so confusing.

Im seeing a LLC that is moving westward over Cuba, but looking at a long VIS loop i have no idea how Ernesto could have relocated there.

Actually nvm got a better look.

[MiamiensisWx]

CVW.. whatcha think about the intensity forecast, the 11am brought it to just under Cat1 on SE FL landfall, think any diff?

That will largely depend on the synoptics, the interaction between Ernesto and the ULL, the surrounding middle to upper-level environment, the position and intensity of the mid-level ridging, and the movement/position/timing if Ernesto and the mid-level east-central U.S. trough. As the synoptics support slow consolidation, with possibly a bit quicker strengthening closer to Florida, a low-end hurricane may be very possible.

[Noah]

Does this mean a possiblity of an update at 2pm or 5 pm for a westerly movement?
Or is it more solid now the track he will stay on will be east and up the coast bouncing out to the atlantic then up the coast more north.

[storms in NC]

well Just got back and they moved it more east. They can't move it any more east. I think it will go back to the west some. But let me read though everthing and see where we stand.

[ConvergenceZone]

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

I agree on the center reformation. There's no LLC I can find at present over Cuba. Satellite indicates a clear MLC along the northern Cuba coast. I'm sure the LLC will reform up there in the next 6-12 hours.

My gut feeling is that Ernesto may miss Florida to the east then pull a Dennis of 1999, blocked by high pressure and stalled for days while intensifying off the Carolinas.

hey wxman, do you think there's any chance of it actually hitting the Carolinas? or do you think it should be offshore without a problem? just wanting an opinion here, not meaning to put ya on the spot...

[BensonTCwatcher]

After a crazy trip through the Carrib. A classic battle of the Bermuda High vs Ernesto. Sunday Sunday I can hear it now.....

[CronkPSU]

That's what i've been thinking as well.

can you be more specific with what you're agreeing with?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

I agree on the center reformation. There's no LLC I can find at present over Cuba. Satellite indicates a clear MLC along the northern Cuba coast. I'm sure the LLC will reform up there in the next 6-12 hours.

My gut feeling is that Ernesto may miss Florida to the east then pull a Dennis of 1999, blocked by high pressure and stalled for days while intensifying off the Carolinas.

Thm are some bold predictions considering it was haded to TX 2 days ago...How can you possibly come up with that scenario?

[Thunder44]

2PM NHC position from their latest advisory:

[wxman57]

THis is so confusing.

Im seeing a LLC that is moving westward over Cuba, but looking at a long VIS loop i have no idea how Ernesto could have relocated there.

Don't assume the spin you're seeing is actually down to the surface.

Find the center on this image with surface plots - if you can. Also, see if you can figure how the NHC is calling this a TS, or even a TD.

[Stratosphere747]

That's what i've been thinking as well.

can you be more specific with what you're agreeing with?

I think we was directly agreeing with 57's thoughts. KDFM has been trending to the possiblity of Ernie missing Florida.

[wxman57]

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

I agree on the center reformation. There's no LLC I can find at present over Cuba. Satellite indicates a clear MLC along the northern Cuba coast. I'm sure the LLC will reform up there in the next 6-12 hours.

My gut feeling is that Ernesto may miss Florida to the east then pull a Dennis of 1999, blocked by high pressure and stalled for days while intensifying off the Carolinas.

Thm are some bold predictions considering it was haded to TX 2 days ago...How can you possibly come up with that scenario?

Trend keeps going farther east. Are we sure the trend won't continue?

[Normandy]

THis is so confusing.

Im seeing a LLC that is moving westward over Cuba, but looking at a long VIS loop i have no idea how Ernesto could have relocated there.

Don't assume the spin you're seeing is actually down to the surface.

Find the center on this image with surface plots - if you can. Also, see if you can figure how the NHC is calling this a TS, or even a TD.

Na, i got a better look I agree there isnt a LLC over Cuba where I saw.

[ConvergenceZone]

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

I agree on the center reformation. There's no LLC I can find at present over Cuba. Satellite indicates a clear MLC along the northern Cuba coast. I'm sure the LLC will reform up there in the next 6-12 hours.

My gut feeling is that Ernesto may miss Florida to the east then pull a Dennis of 1999, blocked by high pressure and stalled for days while intensifying off the Carolinas.

Thm are some bold predictions considering it was haded to TX 2 days ago...How can you possibly come up with that scenario?

I don't see anything strange about that at all. If ya think about it, it does look like it might skim Florida now and with the high pressure off shore acting as a block. It very well can get hung up and stall..

[Stratosphere747]

Even the 2pm advisory has this at a "poorly" defined circulation. Still not a healthy system.

[HurricaneJim]

Has anyone noticed that this storm seems to shift it's center at will in order to stay over it's "Food Source" ?

Latest pass has it morphing just off the tip of the island and now there's a whole bunch of convection starting to wrap in from the NE.

It still seems to be hungry and it's headed towards the "Horn of Plenty"

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


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