Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[wxman57]

NHC isn't -removed-. They come from a MET background that is traditionally atmospherics heavy. They don't always watch the water like oceanographers do.

And from a standpoint of being a gov't agency responsible for official forecasting upon which the contingencies of millions rely, they have a huge responsibility and don't think that they don't know it.

My hat is always off to them, they experience pressures from many directions and they bear it professionally and well.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

I agree, Jim. I know the guys at the NHC, they're excellent forecasters. Public pressure prevents them from saying what they may really think in many cases. Flip-flopping H-TS-TD-TS might send the wrong message to the general public. There is definitely a threat for Florida & the Carolinas.

I did edit my earlier comment.

[AJC3]

Oh, I realize the NHC has many things to consider when downgrading a storm. But is there really any evidence that this is a TS? Perhaps another non-biased agency should determine current intensity?

My forecast brings it to a Cat 2-3 off the Carolinas, perhaps a track similar to Dennis of '99 or Ophelia last year.

So after acknowledging this consideration, do you think it would serve any good purpose to operationally downgrade this system to an open wave right now? Do you think waiting another 6-12 hours for a clear trend toward dissipation to establish itself is a better course of action?

[Blown Away]

What's causing the cloud field to expand?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[MiamiensisWx]

It's simple why this storm has been so complicated...

Castro's beard has disrupted the track and synoptics, twisted climatology, and confused the models.

[curtadams]

I think the NHC is wish-casting this to be a TS currently. There's no trackable LLC to estimate a forward speed on. Would they upgrade something so poorly-organized to a TD? They just can never let go of a storm.

Not so much -removed- as their usual obsession with continuity. They don't like to upgrade without conclusive evidence and they drag their feet on downgrades similarly. At present it seems profoundly disorganized and maybe not even closed but since they can't be *sure* they leave it what it was.

Cuban radar shows a weak radar center, presumably at least close to the surface, moving N or even NNE along 75W. Since it's lagging at least an hour (if I read the times correctly) the center is moving offshore now - if it is a center and if it's still there.

[fci]

Continuing the NHC discussion, I think that they HAVE to still call this a TS or all heck will break loose.

IF this were to reintensify to a Hurricane and then hit Fla while they had it pegged as a TD or weak TS; politically it would be horrific.

So, my guess is if you could go "off the record" with the NHC they would admit that this in not a TD at this point and that it will not be a Hurricane IF it hits South Florida.

Then again.... I could be wrong which explains the connundrum they face.
Darned if they do and darned if they don't.

[wxman57]

Oh, I realize the NHC has many things to consider when downgrading a storm. But is there really any evidence that this is a TS? Perhaps another non-biased agency should determine current intensity?

My forecast brings it to a Cat 2-3 off the Carolinas, perhaps a track similar to Dennis of '99 or Ophelia last year.

So after acknowledging this consideration, do you think it would serve any good purpose to operationally downgrade this system to an open wave right now? Do you think waiting another 6-12 hours for a clear trend toward dissipation to establish itself is a better course of action?

I wouldn't necessarily call it a wave, but it's certainly not a TD. If the NHC called it a TD, though, the people of Florida would possibly ignore it, putting themselves at risk. The NHC is stuck behind a rock and a hard place. Not much else they can do, I guess.

[storms in NC]

But when it hit that warm water it will refire back up wait and see. It has been to close to land. to help it any right now.

[curtadams]

On RGB I can see a low cloud spin near 77W 21.5N at 1745 UTC. Yes, I know that's nowhere near the radar center I just mentioned. Brisk Wly winds to the south suggesting some convection is blowing up to the E of that center.

[CrazyC83]

Center seems to me like it is at 20.4N, 74.1W based on Recon data - is that correct?

[wxman57]

On RGB I can see a low cloud spin near 77W 21.5N at 1745 UTC. Yes, I know that's nowhere near the radar center I just mentioned. Brisk Wly winds to the south suggesting some convection is blowing up to the E of that center.

Definitely a mid-level spin there. That may be the place to look for center reformation.

[cpdaman]

curt the weak center reflection is not at 75 but more like 76.3 and the northern edge of it appears to be reaching the coast

here http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... n&type=vis on visible it seems the northern edge of what is left of the circulation is feeling the warm water as t-storms are firing

this radar http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif seems to indicate weak turning in the area well to the north west of the intense rain bands also the motion seems more wnw/nw than before as expected with the influence from the ridge in ron jons sterring maps

that radar clearly shows there is NO rotation on the east side of cuba, the llc is definitely more west if anywhere

[Blown Away]

Assuming the 2pm center was close to 20.7 and continues NW at 10 mph, Ernesto has about 15-20 miles before he can start breathing again.

http://education.yahoo.com/reference/fa ... FHIeC4ecYF

[fci]

Center seems to me like it is at 20.4N, 74.1W based on Recon data - is that correct?

SW of the 2:00 position????

(actually I should have said ESE as has subsequently been pointed out to me; doh!)

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060828 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060828 1800 060829 0600 060829 1800 060830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 76.4W 21.5N 78.1W 22.4N 79.9W 23.4N 81.6W
BAMM 20.9N 76.4W 21.8N 78.2W 23.0N 79.9W 24.3N 81.4W
A98E 20.9N 76.4W 22.0N 78.2W 22.8N 79.4W 23.4N 80.2W
LBAR 20.9N 76.4W 21.9N 78.1W 23.1N 79.9W 24.6N 81.1W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060830 1800 060831 1800 060901 1800 060902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.5N 83.0W 27.2N 84.3W 30.9N 84.7W 34.7N 84.4W
BAMM 25.7N 82.5W 29.2N 82.2W 33.3N 80.5W 36.4N 79.1W
A98E 24.1N 80.6W 25.2N 80.9W 26.6N 81.7W 28.1N 82.8W
LBAR 25.9N 81.9W 28.5N 82.0W 31.0N 81.6W 35.6N 81.0W
SHIP 47KTS 61KTS 70KTS 72KTS
DSHP 32KTS 49KTS 58KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.9N LONCUR = 76.4W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 19.1N LONM12 = 75.1W DIRM12 = 331DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 74.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

Center seems to me like it is at 20.4N, 74.1W based on Recon data - is that correct?

SW of the 2:00 position????

That would be ESE so it would make little sense unless it reformed.

[Pigsnibble]

Could this have just lost its structure and hence not be impacted by the steering currents.....and be stalled out ?

[BReb]

My question about Ernesto is why the NHC reports have had its motion as being either WNW or NW for the past couple of days when a quick look at where it is now and has been reveals that it's clearly being going NNW for most of that time:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00605.html

[KBBOCA]

Fascinating to watch everyone try to find the center. It seems like we have invented a new game "pin the center on the tropical storm"

Well, whatever one can say about this storm, it hasn't been a boring 48 hours!!

I very greatly appreciate the pro Mets who are chiming in here and helping us amateurs to understand better what may or may not be happening.

[WxGuy1]

My question about Ernesto is why the NHC reports have had its motion as being either WNW or NW for the past couple of days when a quick look at where it is now and has been reveals that it's clearly being going NNW for most of that time:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00605.html

Some of the apparent northerly motion has been caused by center relocations... In other words, the center of circulation would move WNW or NW, but a new center would develop to its north. So, after a couple of recenterings, it looks as though the entire storm moved NNW, but the motion of each LLC has had a more westerly component.