Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

benny · #2401 Postby **benny** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:01 pm

the center is just about off the coast according to the recon data. lots of winds too... as soon as there is convection near the center offshore... watch out. i am curious how far offshore it will make it.. that will help its development. looks like it will emerge around 76.7 west or so..

StormsAhead · #2402 Postby **StormsAhead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:02 pm

URNT11 KNHC 281834
97779 18314 20214 76018 03100 11041 22228 /0010
41135
RMK AF309 1005A ERNESTO OB 04

Surface 35 knots (estimate), 1010mb

URNT11 KNHC 281900
97779 18574 20220 77500 03000 06026 22222 /0011
40625
RMK AF309 1005A ERNESTO OB 05

Surface 25 knots, 1011mb

Scott_inVA · #2403 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:03 pm

rnbaida wrote:***********Folks, look at the visible, the center just moved off the coast of cuba**********

At 3PM EDT the center is still fixed over land...it isn't off-shore. However, TPC's 12Hr position is slow and it will have cleared the Cuban coast before that time.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

Additional edit by Scott: go here: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/recon.htm
Recon is current...TC fix is 2pm

StormsAhead · #2404 Postby **StormsAhead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:05 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 281859
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 15 KNHC
1850 2150N 07706W 00306 5010 062 030 210 210 030 00306 0000000000
1850. 2151N 07707W 00304 5010 067 029 210 210 031 00305 0000000000
1851 2151N 07709W 00304 5009 069 029 216 216 030 00306 0000000000
1851. 2152N 07711W 00305 5008 065 028 212 212 029 00307 0000000000
1852 2153N 07712W 00304 5008 069 030 214 214 030 00306 0000000000
1852. 2153N 07714W 00304 5008 068 032 224 224 032 00307 0000000000
1853 2154N 07715W 00306 5007 064 029 228 218 030 00310 0000000000
1853. 2155N 07717W 00305 5007 061 029 230 220 032 00308 0000000000
1854 2156N 07719W 00304 5007 062 028 234 214 028 00307 0000000000
1854. 2156N 07720W 00304 5007 056 028 232 222 029 00307 0000000000
1855 2157N 07722W 00305 5008 057 028 232 224 029 00308 0000000000
1855. 2158N 07724W 00305 5008 055 027 232 226 028 00308 0000000000
1856 2158N 07725W 00304 5007 059 027 230 222 028 00307 0000000000
1856. 2159N 07727W 00305 5006 063 027 230 222 027 00309 0000000000
1857 2200N 07729W 00304 5006 062 027 228 224 027 00309 0000000000
1857. 2200N 07730W 00304 5005 064 026 226 226 027 00310 0000000000
1858 2201N 07732W 00305 5005 062 025 226 224 026 00310 0000000000
1858. 2202N 07733W 00304 5004 062 025 226 226 025 00310 0000000000
1859 2203N 07735W 00304 5002 067 024 226 226 025 00312 0000000000
1859. 2204N 07734W 00305 5003 067 021 230 224 022 00313 0000000000

Starting to turn back east

#2405 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:07 pm

VDM soon? I wonder if they are having a real problem finding a center.

Thunder44 · #2406 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:08 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:VDM soon? I wonder if they are having a real problem finding a center.

I don't know if they can fix a center overland from offshore.

#2407 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:08 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:VDM soon? I wonder if they are having a real problem finding a center.

I don't know if they can fix a center overland.

Good call... Have they flown over cuba or are we not allowed?

StormsAhead · #2408 Postby **StormsAhead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:09 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:VDM soon? I wonder if they are having a real problem finding a center.

I don't know if they can fix a center overland.

They can't. Don't look for a vortex unless the center moves off the coast.

#2409 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:09 pm

looks like the center is just barely inland, about ready to emerge.

Scott_inVA · #2410 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:12 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:VDM soon? I wonder if they are having a real problem finding a center.

Nope. Not only are they not authorized, recco doesn't fly into a center over land. Last time they almost did that was Hugo and they almost lost a plane and crew.

No eyewalls over land.

Scott

Thunder44 · #2411 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:12 pm

Correction made to 1859z position.

StormsAhead · #2412 Postby **StormsAhead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:14 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 281909
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 16 KNHC
1900 2203N 07733W 00304 5004 059 020 228 226 021 00310 0000000000
1900. 2202N 07732W 00305 5005 055 021 226 226 023 00311 0000000000
1901 2201N 07731W 00305 5006 056 022 228 222 023 00309 0000000000
1901. 2200N 07730W 00305 5006 056 021 228 224 022 00309 0000000000
1902 2159N 07728W 00304 5007 056 021 230 224 022 00307 0000000000
1902. 2158N 07727W 00305 5008 058 022 232 222 024 00308 0000000000
1903 2158N 07725W 00305 5008 055 023 232 226 023 00308 0000000000
1903. 2157N 07724W 00305 5008 056 023 232 224 024 00307 0000000000
1904 2156N 07723W 00304 5009 058 025 234 218 026 00305 0000000000
1904. 2156N 07721W 00305 5009 057 026 232 216 026 00306 0000000000
1905 2155N 07720W 00304 5009 061 025 232 212 025 00305 0000000000
1905. 2154N 07719W 00304 5009 063 025 230 216 026 00305 0000000000
1906 2153N 07717W 00305 5010 062 024 230 220 025 00306 0000000000
1906. 2153N 07716W 00303 5011 056 027 228 216 027 00303 0000000000
1907 2152N 07715W 00304 5011 058 027 226 220 028 00303 0000000000
1907. 2151N 07713W 00306 5011 056 027 222 220 029 00305 0000000000
1908 2151N 07712W 00305 5011 056 030 218 218 031 00304 0000000000
1908. 2150N 07711W 00304 5012 053 032 218 218 033 00302 0000000000
1909 2149N 07709W 00306 5013 049 034 226 220 034 00304 0000000000
1909. 2148N 07708W 00304 5012 050 033 218 218 034 00302 0000000000

Thunder44 · #2413 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:17 pm

Stormavoider · #2414 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:19 pm

I wish they had decended to operational altitude sooner to measure that big blob of convection off the east end. There was some NNE winds as soon as they decended.

StormsAhead · #2415 Postby **StormsAhead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:23 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 281919
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 17 KNHC
1910 2148N 07707W 00305 5014 049 032 220 220 033 00302 0000000000
1910. 2147N 07705W 00306 5014 048 031 210 210 032 00302 0000000000
1911 2146N 07704W 00304 5017 041 032 196 196 032 00298 0000000000
1911. 2146N 07703W 00303 5017 043 033 206 206 034 00296 0000000000
1912 2145N 07701W 00306 5019 046 033 196 196 036 00297 0000000000
1912. 2144N 07700W 00305 5021 042 031 196 196 031 00294 0000000000
1913 2143N 07659W 00305 5022 041 032 208 208 033 00294 0000000000
1913. 2143N 07657W 00302 5021 050 032 200 200 032 00291 0000000000
1914 2142N 07656W 00307 5021 061 034 194 194 036 00296 0000000000
1914. 2141N 07655W 00304 5021 078 026 190 190 030 00293 0000000000
1915 2141N 07653W 00305 5022 092 019 190 190 019 00294 0000000000
1915. 2140N 07652W 00306 5023 092 020 192 192 022 00293 0000000000
1916 2139N 07651W 00304 5024 098 025 196 196 026 00291 0000000000
1916. 2139N 07650W 00304 5024 100 029 196 196 030 00291 0000000000
1917 2138N 07648W 00305 5024 099 032 216 216 033 00291 0000000000
1917. 2137N 07647W 00304 5025 102 032 224 224 033 00289 0000000000
1918 2137N 07646W 00303 5026 105 033 218 218 034 00288 0000000000
1918. 2136N 07645W 00306 5027 108 031 218 218 032 00290 0000000000
1919 2135N 07644W 00304 5027 107 031 204 204 032 00287 0000000000
1919. 2135N 07642W 00304 5028 102 034 198 198 035 00287 0000000000

#2416 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:26 pm

The 5PM is probably the most important advisory for me personally than I can remember.

Thunder44 · #2417 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:26 pm

DESTRUCTION5 · #2418 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:27 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:The 5PM is probably the most important advisory for me personally than I can remember.

Im thinking they may bump track into center of state again...Or leave alone..Def not east..

StormsAhead · #2419 Postby **StormsAhead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:28 pm

They're flying as close as possible to the coast of Cuba to find the center. The heights in the last set are lower than what they found before, and the wind direction has gone from NE to ESE quickly. It looks like the center is very close to the coast now.

Damar91 · #2420 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:29 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:The 5PM is probably the most important advisory for me personally than I can remember.

I would very much agree. It will tell me if I really need to fight these long, long gas lines! Although if Ernie doesn't hurry up and leave Cuba, we may have to wait until 11:00 to really know for sure what is going on.

Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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