Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4
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OK. I think I've found the center on Floater zoom. It's still inland a bit and pretty much on the NHC NW track. Should emerge later today in a few hours.
If you'll notice there's a sheared reflection of the center vortex just up at the coast BUT there's also a new shear direction pushing convection to the NW side of the storm that was previously sheared bare. This is what NEXRAD said to watch for. When that side gets convected over water and under excellent overhead conditions expect intensification.
If you'll notice there's a sheared reflection of the center vortex just up at the coast BUT there's also a new shear direction pushing convection to the NW side of the storm that was previously sheared bare. This is what NEXRAD said to watch for. When that side gets convected over water and under excellent overhead conditions expect intensification.
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.
If you're referring to the two systems I don't have to lie. It's not happening. ONE model thinks it may well happen. That's it. If you're referring to Ernie's track those are place we'd rather not see hurricane but he's going there as a weak and unmemorable TS and would cause any more serious damage.
Now multiple CV storms over the next 2-3 weeks are certainly possible, but they're not upon us yet, nor guaranteed to be.
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robbielyn wrote:Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.
What's so bad about that? That make it a ts at best
I think maybe the two spinners rolling west at 144hr was the "lie-to-me" request of this post...
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robbielyn wrote:Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.
What's so bad about that? That make it a ts at best
Thoughts of Dennis and Floyd . . . This being Dennis.
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- SouthFloridawx
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brunota2003 wrote:That was uncalled for...storms said winds are picking up in the STORM not NC...chrisnnavarre wrote:storms in NC wrote:I am afaid that it will not be over land much longer. It is already trying to get itself together here. the winds are picking up now.
Boy, it you can feel the winds up in N.C. already it must really be getting itself together.
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O.K. that's a little unfair... Where are you anyway???
Brun:
I'm sorry but I thought his comment was pretty funny.
Not bad to lighten up a pretty stressful day once in a while.


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Thatsmrhurricane wrote:That . . . and the torrential flooding from a blocking pattern setting up days 4 & 5 keeping Ernesto off NC coast.
Yeah... I'm getting concerned that Florida isn't gonna take the brunt of this. Wilma rapidly intensified right after it left Florida, and with the prospect of this just barely clipping SE FL or actually remaining offshore, I think there could be a big problem for the Carolinas. There might be a major hurricane out of this if it follows the right track.
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