Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

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Sanibel
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#281 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:34 pm

OK. I think I've found the center on Floater zoom. It's still inland a bit and pretty much on the NHC NW track. Should emerge later today in a few hours.

If you'll notice there's a sheared reflection of the center vortex just up at the coast BUT there's also a new shear direction pushing convection to the NW side of the storm that was previously sheared bare. This is what NEXRAD said to watch for. When that side gets convected over water and under excellent overhead conditions expect intensification.
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Evil Jeremy
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#282 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:36 pm

Hurricane Warnings at 5PM?
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#283 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:36 pm

That . . . and the torrential flooding from a blocking pattern setting up days 4 & 5 keeping Ernesto off NC coast.
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#284 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:38 pm

shouldn't those be delayed to 11 to see if the system reintensify's first maybe tropical storm warnings
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#285 Postby westmoon » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:38 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
i cant belive its moving away from Cuba so fast! poop.


Yep a little brown mountian of it.


Better make that a big mountian of it!
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#286 Postby curtadams » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:39 pm

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.

If you're referring to the two systems I don't have to lie. It's not happening. ONE model thinks it may well happen. That's it. If you're referring to Ernie's track those are place we'd rather not see hurricane but he's going there as a weak and unmemorable TS and would cause any more serious damage.
Now multiple CV storms over the next 2-3 weeks are certainly possible, but they're not upon us yet, nor guaranteed to be.
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melhow
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#287 Postby melhow » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:39 pm

robbielyn wrote:
Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.

What's so bad about that? That make it a ts at best


I think maybe the two spinners rolling west at 144hr was the "lie-to-me" request of this post...
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#288 Postby Bane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:40 pm

^several days of heavy rain in an area that was ravaged by floyd 7 years ago. i'd say that is pretty bad. of course, it hasn't happened yet.
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#289 Postby Damar91 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:40 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Hurricane Warnings at 5PM?


Not yet, but, if everything happens as the NHC says though, probably at 5 am!
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#290 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:40 pm

robbielyn wrote:
Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.

What's so bad about that? That make it a ts at best


Thoughts of Dennis and Floyd . . . This being Dennis.
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#291 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:40 pm

I think as the 11am advisory had said that there is a broad circulation. I don't think that there is a center persay. I would think that at this point there is a broad circulation and until it gets over water there won't be a defined center of circulation.
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#292 Postby fci » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:41 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
chrisnnavarre wrote:
storms in NC wrote:I am afaid that it will not be over land much longer. It is already trying to get itself together here. the winds are picking up now.


Boy, it you can feel the winds up in N.C. already it must really be getting itself together.

:roll:

O.K. that's a little unfair... Where are you anyway??? :?:
That was uncalled for...storms said winds are picking up in the STORM not NC...


Brun:
I'm sorry but I thought his comment was pretty funny.
Not bad to lighten up a pretty stressful day once in a while.
:D :D
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#293 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:41 pm

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:That . . . and the torrential flooding from a blocking pattern setting up days 4 & 5 keeping Ernesto off NC coast.


Yeah... I'm getting concerned that Florida isn't gonna take the brunt of this. Wilma rapidly intensified right after it left Florida, and with the prospect of this just barely clipping SE FL or actually remaining offshore, I think there could be a big problem for the Carolinas. There might be a major hurricane out of this if it follows the right track.
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#294 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:42 pm

I'm pretty confident you'll see my center emerge around 7 or so.

It is near where the previous poster posted a graphic with an "L" imposed on it.

It is picking up in forward speed.
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#295 Postby Damar91 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:43 pm

Sanibel wrote:I'm pretty confident you'll see my center emerge around 7 or so.

It is near where the previous poster posted a graphic with an "L" imposed on it.

It is picking up in forward speed.


Still moving NW, you think?
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#296 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:43 pm

Yes. I wish I had a live screen and pointer to show you'all.
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#297 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:43 pm

Yeah often it's a 1-2 punch.... in 1996 it was Bertha that softened up all the tree roots, Fran dealt a knockout blow. Dennis and Floyd. Almost the same thing with Katrina and Rita. Way too soon to go there though, but climo happens
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#298 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:45 pm

A new CDO is co-locating over the LLC!!!
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#299 Postby westmoon » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:45 pm

Sanibel,
I'm pretty confident you'll see my center emerge around 7 or so.

It is near where the previous poster posted a graphic with an "L" imposed on it.

It is picking up in forward speed.

At what point do you see it starting to turn to the east?
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#300 Postby Damar91 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:46 pm

Sanibel wrote:A new CDO is co-locating over the LLC!!!


Meaning?
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