Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[tracyswfla]

A new CDO is co-locating over the LLC!!!

Hi Sanibel,

Can you explain what that means for the weather challenged?

Thanks!

[Sanibel]

At what point do you see it starting to turn to the east?

Stick with the NHC track. They are pretty good when storms start heading north.

[DESTRUCTION5]

A new CDO is co-locating over the LLC!!!

What Visible you looking at?

[fci]

Hurricane Warnings at 5PM?

Evil:
Glad you have stepped off of the "winners stand" you erected for yourself for having guessed that this would be a SE Fl threat!

I think 5 PM or 11 PM and maybe a TS Warning and Hurricane Watch.
Can't think they would wait until tomorrow if the thinking is it is here on Wednesday AM.

Of course, I still think it will be offshore and not hit us and/or much weaker than a Cat 1. But with this storm, who knows????

[Sanibel]

TPC Floater loop 2x zoom

[Bane]

cdo=central dense overcast=thunderstorms=possible organization

[Trugunzn]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.

This run show Ernesto stalling off mid atlantic coast.

[Sanibel]

When the Central Dense Overcast (The main hurricane disc with the eye in the middle) locates directly over the surface center, or Low Level Center (LLC) the storm is stacked vertically where its heat engine can work best to strengthen it.

[wjs3]

Here's a definition of a CDO.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A9.html

[curtadams]

A central dense overcast arises when a circulation puts up a lot of convection from a small area and it spreads outward because there's not enough room. It suggests an organized tropical systems, although you can get a CDO from storms fairly high in the atmosphere which generally do not last long because they don't generate warm moist air from interaction with the ocean.

[Trugunzn]

Has the storm moved off shore, seems like the last few frames the convection started to fire up and spread out.

[Thunder44]

A new CDO is co-locating over the LLC!!!

Where are you looking at? I estimate center in that big orange point on this map. No deep convection there:

[Zadok]

It seems to me the center is trying to relocate to the south. but there is not much left to work with.

[mj]

A new CDO is co-locating over the LLC!!!

Looking at the same thing and I might have to agree with you on that. It does look like that could be a coc. At least to my untrained eyes! Also looks to be paralling the coast at this time too.

[miamicanes177]

If the storm is still organized after it moves offshore then we could see a 24 hour period of rapid intensification to major hurricane status. Check out the shear map. The shear is just nothing. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[deltadog03]

good point thunder....its funny this thing is moving NW.....i would expect that to continue....I also expect that to continue for a while.

[Sanibel]

Thunder:

Take your mark about 20 miles S.

Oops! I meant South.

[curtadams]

Based on RGB, the MLC is still well inland. It's picking up, with more convection and an expanding circ that suggests an LLC is underneath. I wouldn't call it a CDO, though. I see many areas of overcast out to sea but none are spinning the low clouds so I doubt any are or are about to become the center.

[miamicanes177]

12Z GFDL makes this a 968mb cat 2 hurricane off the south carolina coast in 78 hours. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=078hr

[Wthrman13]

There is definitely no CDO here folks.