Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[Sanibel]

Correct: You can see a clear vortex reflection direct over the surface center. Those are thickening clouds directly over the center WHILE OVER LAND.

[Zadok]

It is looking more disorganized by the frame. :P

[Sanibel]

There is definitely no CDO here folks.

I'm sorry but you have to acknowledge all the information being discussed. There is very definitely thickening clouds over the LLC with a vortex reflected in them.

[Wthrman13]

A CDO may of course form later, but I see no signs of it right now. You need deep convection near the center first to get that, and that is very limited at this time. There may be enhanced cloudiness near the center, but that is a far far cry from a CDO.

The key here is *deep* convection.

[westmoon]

Does anyone know what the margin of error is in predicting landfall 24 to 48 hours out? In milage

[curtadams]

Correct: You can see a clear vortex reflection direct over the surface center. Those are thickening clouds directly over the center WHILE OVER LAND.

Yes, that's unusual. Ernie is spinning the low clouds better than he has since before Haiti. Cuba is small though and Ernie's close to water on two sides.

[Sanibel]

Correct. Which interpolates into a faster rebound upon hitting water.

[fci]

That . . . and the torrential flooding from a blocking pattern setting up days 4 & 5 keeping Ernesto off NC coast.

Yeah... I'm getting concerned that Florida isn't gonna take the brunt of this. Wilma rapidly intensified right after it left Florida, and with the prospect of this just barely clipping SE FL or actually remaining offshore, I think there could be a big problem for the Carolinas. There might be a major hurricane out of this if it follows the right track.

I don't recall Wilma rapidly intensification after Florida.
Are you sure?

Unless you call winds going up 10 mph and and a 5 mb rise in pressure "rapid".

Besides, there was a strong structure of a previous Cat 5 and a strong October frontal boundary that enhanced it.

I think it is a totally different scenario.,

When has Ernesto EVER been an impressive storm in its life??

[SWLA]

I don't know. The only center I can see appears to be heading wnw over southern Cuba. Of course I'm probably wrong.

[chadtm80]

if that is true Sanibel then it would look like the storm is to the East of the forecast track

[Thunder44]

Thunder:

Take your mark about 20 miles S.

Oops! I meant South.

It may not be absolutely perfect, but I think it's just about right area. Either way there's definitely no CDO. Here's another image:

[jenmrk]

I know that someone is going to be siting at their computer laughing at this question, but I haft to ask anyway, is there any chance at all no matter how small that Ernesto could end up in the GOM if he doesn't make the expected turn east soon,( going back to my corner now

[curtadams]

The center I'm seeing is W of the track and close to the center of Cuba. On the 1815Z RGB shot there are three thunderstorm complexes surrounding it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html Not a lot of convection, although more than before, and the rapid increase in rotation makes me suspect there's some serious convection on the way up.

[JonathanBelles]

just checking in again, is it in the water yet? winds still at 40 mph?

[Wx_Warrior]

no, this question has been asked twice already.

ernie better get his act together quick.

[flhurricaneguy]

when will they run the GFDL again?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z run will be out this evening

[tgenius]

no, this question has been asked twice already.

ernie better get his act together quick.

a 40mph TS sustained wind is amazing considering how much of the mountains he went though.... Maybe he will be growing...

[SWLA]

The center looks like it is running parallel to the angle of the northern coast of Cuba.

[Patrick99]

Sustained wind? I'm surprised it has any kind of recognizable *form*, much less any wind.