Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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StormsAhead
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#2421 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:30 pm

URNT11 KNHC 281916
97779 19144 20217 76919 03000 08019 19198 /0010
RMK AF309 1005A ERNESTO OB 06

Surface 1010mb
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DESTRUCTION5
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#2422 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:31 pm

StormsAhead wrote:They're flying as close as possible to the coast of Cuba to find the center. The heights in the last set are lower than what they found before, and the wind direction has gone from NE to ESE quickly. It looks like the center is very close to the coast now.


i agree..Its about to take a breath of warm water
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StormsAhead
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#2423 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:33 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 281929
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 18 KNHC
1920 2134N 07641W 00306 5028 100 035 214 214 037 00289 0000000000
1920. 2134N 07640W 00303 5028 102 037 212 212 038 00286 0000000000
1921 2133N 07639W 00306 5028 106 033 208 208 034 00288 0000000000
1921. 2132N 07638W 00303 5028 114 033 206 206 033 00285 0000000000
1922 2132N 07636W 00306 5028 117 028 206 206 030 00288 0000000000
1922. 2131N 07635W 00305 5028 118 029 214 214 031 00287 0000000000
1923 2130N 07634W 00304 5029 126 026 204 204 026 00286 0000000000
1923. 2129N 07633W 00304 5028 128 032 216 216 033 00286 0000000000
1924 2128N 07632W 00304 5028 129 032 226 226 033 00287 0000000000
1924. 2128N 07631W 00304 5027 132 030 226 226 031 00287 0000000000
1925 2127N 07630W 00306 5026 132 028 226 226 029 00290 0000000000
1925. 2126N 07629W 00304 5026 135 026 226 226 027 00289 0000000000
1926 2125N 07628W 00305 5026 137 026 226 226 027 00289 0000000000
1926. 2125N 07626W 00305 5026 140 026 226 226 026 00289 0000000000
1927 2124N 07625W 00304 5026 140 025 222 222 026 00289 0000000000
1927. 2123N 07624W 00305 5026 142 026 220 220 027 00289 0000000000
1928 2123N 07623W 00304 5026 142 027 220 220 027 00289 0000000000
1928. 2122N 07621W 00304 5026 143 027 220 220 027 00288 0000000000
1929 2122N 07620W 00306 5026 142 025 220 220 026 00290 0000000000
1929. 2121N 07619W 00305 5025 142 024 222 222 025 00290 0000000000
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#2424 Postby Damar91 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:36 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
StormsAhead wrote:They're flying as close as possible to the coast of Cuba to find the center. The heights in the last set are lower than what they found before, and the wind direction has gone from NE to ESE quickly. It looks like the center is very close to the coast now.


i agree..Its about to take a breath of warm water


Hopefully it drowns itself! :lol:
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Thunder44
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#2425 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:36 pm

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StormsAhead
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#2426 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:42 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 281940
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 19 KNHC
1930 2120N 07617W 00303 5025 142 025 224 222 025 00289 0000000000
1930. 2120N 07616W 00306 5025 144 024 224 222 024 00292 0000000000
1931 2119N 07615W 00304 5025 144 023 226 222 024 00289 0000000000
1931. 2118N 07613W 00305 5025 149 021 226 222 021 00290 0000000000
1932 2118N 07612W 00303 5024 144 023 220 220 024 00290 0000000000
1932. 2117N 07611W 00306 5024 138 024 220 220 026 00292 0000000000
1933 2117N 07610W 00305 5024 135 026 224 224 027 00292 0000000000
1933. 2116N 07608W 00303 5024 136 027 224 224 027 00289 0000000000
1934 2115N 07607W 00306 5023 135 025 224 224 027 00293 0000000000
1934. 2115N 07606W 00304 5023 133 023 218 218 024 00291 0000000000
1935 2114N 07604W 00306 5023 130 024 218 218 026 00293 0000000000
1935. 2113N 07603W 00305 5023 131 024 216 216 025 00292 0000000000
1936 2113N 07602W 00301 5023 132 025 220 220 026 00289 0000000000
1936. 2112N 07600W 00306 5022 131 026 220 220 027 00294 0000000000
1937 2112N 07559W 00304 5022 131 027 218 218 028 00293 0000000000
1937. 2112N 07558W 00304 5021 129 029 216 216 030 00293 0000000000
1938 2111N 07556W 00306 5021 130 031 218 218 032 00295 0000000000
1938. 2111N 07555W 00302 5021 128 033 212 212 034 00292 0000000000
1939 2112N 07554W 00305 5020 129 036 214 214 036 00295 0000000000
1939. 2112N 07552W 00305 5019 127 038 212 212 039 00296 0000000000
;
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#2427 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:45 pm

It looks like it is indeed a 40mph TS emerging...did it actually gain strength over land? It seems weird that it can only drop slightly...
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#2428 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:46 pm

Image

Big Orange Point over Cuba is where I estimate to center to be based on recon plots.
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#2429 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:47 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Image

Big Orange Point over Cuba is where I estimate to center to be based on recon plots.

Good going.... good old common sense.
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#2430 Postby tbstorm » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:53 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:VDM soon? I wonder if they are having a real problem finding a center.


Nope. Not only are they not authorized, recco doesn't fly into a center over land. Last time they almost did that was Hugo and they almost lost a plane and crew.

No eyewalls over land.


Scott



In Hugo, how did they almost loose a plane and crew? How is more dangerous than going over land?
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#2431 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:53 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 281949
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 20 KNHC
1940 2112N 07551W 00305 5019 125 040 216 216 042 00296 0000000000
1940. 2112N 07549W 00303 5018 124 041 216 216 041 00295 0000000000
1941 2112N 07548W 00308 5018 123 040 218 218 041 00300 0000000000
1941. 2111N 07547W 00303 5018 122 038 220 220 039 00295 0000000000
1942 2111N 07546W 00305 5018 123 037 218 218 037 00298 0000000000
1942. 2110N 07545W 00305 5017 124 036 216 216 037 00298 0000000000
1943 2110N 07543W 00305 5017 125 036 216 216 036 00298 0000000000
1943. 2109N 07542W 00305 5016 125 034 216 216 034 00300 0000000000
1944 2109N 07541W 00303 5015 123 034 214 214 034 00298 0000000000
1944. 2108N 07540W 00304 5015 122 035 212 212 037 00299 0000000000
1945 2108N 07539W 00306 5014 124 037 212 212 038 00302 0000000000
1945. 2107N 07537W 00304 5013 127 036 216 216 036 00301 0000000000
1946 2107N 07536W 00304 5012 131 034 214 214 035 00303 0000000000
1946. 2106N 07535W 00305 5011 131 034 214 214 035 00304 0000000000
1947 2106N 07534W 00304 5011 128 035 214 214 035 00304 0000000000
1947. 2105N 07532W 00304 5011 127 035 196 196 035 00303 0000000000
1948 2104N 07531W 00304 5010 128 036 188 188 037 00304 0000000000
1948. 2104N 07530W 00306 5008 136 034 186 186 036 00308 0000000000
1949 2103N 07529W 00304 5008 140 028 184 184 029 00306 0000000000
1949. 2103N 07527W 00306 5007 141 026 198 198 026 00309 0000000000
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#2432 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:57 pm

tbstorm wrote:
Scott_inVA wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:VDM soon? I wonder if they are having a real problem finding a center.


Nope. Not only are they not authorized, recco doesn't fly into a center over land. Last time they almost did that was Hugo and they almost lost a plane and crew.

No eyewalls over land.


Scott



In Hugo, how did they almost loose a plane and crew? How is more dangerous than going over land?
here you go...read this...very interesting, written by a person aboard the flight: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hugo1.asp
As for your second question, over land the turbulance is way more extreme than it is over the ocean...it will literally tear the aircraft apart...this is the same reason why sustained winds are lower most of the time than the max winds the NHC has (that and what quadrent you are in...) however it tends to increase wind speeds in gusts...
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#2433 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:58 pm

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#2434 Postby craptacular » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:03 pm

Recon just found a flight-level 42 kt (39 mph surface with 80% factor) SE wind ... it's still whipping at a minimum TS force.
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#2435 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:03 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 281959
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 21 KNHC
1950 2102N 07526W 00305 5007 135 025 210 210 026 00308 0000000000
1950. 2102N 07525W 00304 5009 140 027 218 218 027 00306 0000000000
1951 2101N 07523W 00305 5009 142 026 222 218 027 00306 0000000000
1951. 2101N 07522W 00302 5009 136 025 218 218 026 00303 0000000000
1952 2100N 07521W 00306 5010 136 025 216 216 025 00307 0000000000
1952. 2100N 07519W 00305 5009 129 023 222 222 025 00306 0000000000
1953 2059N 07518W 00304 5009 133 020 222 220 021 00305 0000000000
1953. 2059N 07517W 00304 5009 125 021 220 220 022 00305 0000000000
1954 2058N 07515W 00306 5009 124 020 222 216 020 00308 0000000000
1954. 2057N 07514W 00303 5008 124 022 226 212 023 00305 0000000000
1955 2057N 07513W 00307 5007 125 023 222 210 024 00310 0000000000
1955. 2056N 07511W 00304 5006 130 025 224 202 026 00308 0000000000
1956 2057N 07510W 00307 5006 133 028 230 194 029 00311 0000000000
1956. 2058N 07511W 00306 5007 123 029 226 204 030 00310 0000000000
1957 2058N 07513W 00300 5007 118 027 220 210 028 00303 0000000000
1957. 2058N 07514W 00307 5007 117 026 220 218 026 00310 0000000000
1958 2059N 07516W 00303 5008 117 024 224 214 024 00306 0000000000
1958. 2059N 07518W 00306 5009 118 024 220 220 025 00307 0000000000
1959 2100N 07520W 00304 5010 121 024 220 220 024 00304 0000000000
1959. 2101N 07521W 00305 5010 123 024 220 220 025 00305 0000000000
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#2436 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:04 pm

URNT11 KNHC 282001
97779 19544 20210 75208 03000 13023 22218 /0011
41220
RMK AF309 1005A ERNESTO OB 07

Surface 20 knots, 1011mb
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#2437 Postby craptacular » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:09 pm

StormsAhead,

Where are you getting the minobs right now? The OSU site and the storm2k recon page are still stuck on 1919.
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#2438 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:10 pm

Image
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#2439 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:16 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 282009
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 22 KNHC
2000 2102N 07523W 00303 5010 119 025 224 220 026 00303 0000000000
2000. 2102N 07525W 00305 5009 126 024 222 216 025 00306 0000000000
2001 2103N 07526W 00306 5008 132 024 222 216 024 00308 0000000000
2001. 2104N 07528W 00304 5008 134 024 216 216 025 00307 0000000000
2002 2105N 07530W 00305 5009 127 025 200 200 027 00307 0000000000
2002. 2105N 07531W 00305 5011 131 030 200 200 032 00305 0000000000
2003 2106N 07533W 00304 5012 139 035 188 188 037 00302 0000000000
2003. 2107N 07535W 00305 5013 140 036 206 206 037 00303 0000000000
2004 2108N 07537W 00304 5014 137 039 216 210 041 00300 0000000000
2004. 2108N 07538W 00306 5016 135 042 222 208 042 00301 0000000000
2005 2109N 07540W 00303 5017 126 040 212 212 041 00297 0000000000
2005. 2110N 07542W 00304 5016 121 042 216 216 042 00298 0000000000
2006 2111N 07544W 00305 5017 121 043 218 218 044 00299 0000000000
2006. 2112N 07546W 00303 5017 122 043 216 216 044 00296 0000000000
2007 2113N 07548W 00306 5019 123 043 216 216 044 00298 0000000000
2007. 2113N 07549W 00304 5019 124 042 218 218 042 00296 0000000000
2008 2114N 07551W 00305 5020 120 042 216 216 042 00295 0000000000
2008. 2115N 07553W 00304 5020 119 040 222 222 040 00295 0000000000
2009 2116N 07555W 00304 5021 117 038 220 220 039 00293 0000000000
2009. 2117N 07557W 00305 5022 119 040 222 222 042 00294 0000000000

44 knots FL
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#2440 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:20 pm

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