Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[HenkL]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/
Every hour a new file with minobs as long as there is a plane in the air.
Filename is: YYYYMMDDHH.rcn,
where YYYY=year, MM=month, DD=day, HH=hour (UTC)

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 282020
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 23 KNHC
2010 2117N 07558W 00304 5023 120 041 222 222 041 00292 0000000000
2010. 2118N 07600W 00305 5023 117 040 222 222 041 00292 0000000000
2011 2119N 07602W 00305 5024 119 040 216 216 041 00291 0000000000
2011. 2120N 07604W 00305 5025 120 041 212 212 044 00291 0000000000
2012 2121N 07606W 00303 5025 121 042 220 220 043 00288 0000000000
2012. 2121N 07608W 00306 5025 122 040 220 220 041 00291 0000000000
2013 2122N 07609W 00305 5027 121 042 220 220 042 00288 0000000000
2013. 2123N 07611W 00305 5028 121 043 210 210 045 00288 0000000000
2014 2124N 07613W 00303 5026 125 037 212 212 038 00288 0000000000
2014. 2125N 07615W 00305 5027 133 037 220 220 038 00288 0000000000
2015 2125N 07617W 00304 5027 129 031 222 222 032 00287 0000000000
2015. 2126N 07618W 00305 5028 132 030 226 226 031 00287 0000000000
2016 2127N 07620W 00305 5028 132 028 224 224 030 00287 0000000000
2016. 2128N 07622W 00306 5028 133 028 224 224 028 00287 0000000000
2017 2128N 07623W 00304 5029 131 028 226 226 028 00285 0000000000
2017. 2129N 07625W 00306 5029 130 027 226 226 028 00287 0000000000
2018 2130N 07627W 00303 5029 126 026 226 226 027 00285 0000000000
2018. 2131N 07629W 00304 5029 129 027 224 224 028 00285 0000000000
2019 2131N 07630W 00305 5030 128 027 224 224 028 00286 0000000000
2019. 2132N 07632W 00305 5030 128 029 222 222 029 00285 0000000000

45 knots FL (36 knots surface) close to the center. Broader area of low heights.

[cycloneye]

They found 45kts at flight level.

[Brent]

Well I guess it is still a storm...

[Thunder44]

[Bane]

They found 45kts at flight level.

that's pretty impressive for a system that has been over land for the better part of 2 days.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 282012
97779 20104 21293 91200 85400 16014 76909 /8053
RMK AF300 1105A ERNESTO OB 01

Second AF flight.

[cycloneye]

The 5 PM advisory will be very important in terms of how they have the forecast track.

[Bgator]

They found 45kts at flight level.

And they havent sampled the whole storm due to cuba, so who knows what MAY be in there...

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 282025
97779 20234 20216 76818 03100 13021 22228 /0008
41220
RMK AF309 1005A ERNESTO OB 08

Surface 20 knots, 1008mb

[StormsAhead]

1008mb just reported. Either Ernesto has strengthened, or the center is right on the coast.

[cycloneye]

URNT11 KNHC 282012
97779 20104 21293 91200 85400 16014 76909 /8053
RMK AF300 1105A ERNESTO OB 01


Another plane is on route towards Ernesto,this one departed from Keesler base.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 282031
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 24 KNHC
2020 2133N 07634W 00304 5031 127 029 220 220 029 00284 0000000000
2020. 2134N 07635W 00304 5031 129 029 222 222 029 00283 0000000000
2021 2134N 07637W 00306 5032 129 030 222 222 030 00284 0000000000
2021. 2135N 07639W 00303 5032 128 030 214 214 031 00281 0000000000
2022 2136N 07641W 00304 5033 129 029 212 212 029 00281 0000000000
2022. 2137N 07642W 00306 5034 132 027 222 222 028 00283 0000000000
2023 2137N 07644W 00305 5034 134 026 222 222 026 00282 0000000000
2023. 2138N 07646W 00303 5034 137 023 226 226 025 00279 0000000000
2024 2139N 07648W 00304 5033 135 021 226 226 022 00281 0000000000
2024. 2140N 07649W 00305 5032 129 019 224 224 021 00283 0000000000
2025 2140N 07651W 00305 5030 096 016 212 212 016 00285 0000000000
2025. 2141N 07652W 00305 5030 071 025 196 196 031 00285 0000000000
2026 2142N 07654W 00306 5030 077 037 192 192 040 00287 0000000000
2026. 2143N 07655W 00303 5030 073 042 196 196 044 00284 0000000000
2027 2144N 07657W 00305 5029 068 044 214 214 046 00286 0000000000
2027. 2145N 07658W 00304 5028 068 042 212 212 043 00287 0000000000
2028 2146N 07700W 00304 5027 070 041 206 206 042 00287 0000000000
2028. 2147N 07701W 00306 5026 068 041 210 210 043 00290 0000000000
2029 2148N 07703W 00304 5026 069 042 212 212 044 00289 0000000000
2029. 2149N 07704W 00303 5024 070 040 200 200 041 00289 0000000000

46 knots and even lower heights, along with a quicker wind shift.

[cycloneye]

They found 45kts at flight level.

Make it now up to 46kts.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

They found 45kts at flight level.

And they havent sampled the whole storm due to cuba, so who knows what MAY be in there...

Probably not much - wind obs on the ground have been light.

[Bane]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2006

...Center of Ernesto nearing the northern coast of Cuba...threat of
heavy rains continues...tropical storm warnings issued for portions
of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas...

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is being issued
for Florida from Vero Beach southward on the East Coast...from
south of Chokoloskee southward on the West Coast...for Lake
Okeechobee...and for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the
Dry Tortugas. These areas also remain under a Hurricane Watch.


At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch is being issued from
Chokoloskee northward to Englewood on the Florida West Coast.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from north of Vero Beach to New
Smyrna Beach on the Florida East Coast.


At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Andros Island...the Berry Islands... the
biminis and...Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas.
These islands also remain under a Hurricane Watch.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ragged Island and
great Exuma in the central Bahamas.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Granma...Holguin...Las Tunas... and
Camaguey.


Interests elsewhere in the central and northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 21.3 north...longitude 76.9 west. This
position is just inland over eastern Cuba...about 60 miles...
100 km...east of Camaguey.

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should emerge into the Atlantic north of
Cuba tonight.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast after the center moves back over
water.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are possible over
Haiti. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up
to 10 inches are expected over eastern Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches are expected over
central Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
possible isolated amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible over the
Bahamas. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over
portions of eastern and southern Florida and the Keys through
Wednesday.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...21.3 N...76.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

[rnbaida]

They found 45kts at flight level.

Make it now up to 46kts.

so what? is it strengthening?

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED
FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.9W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.9W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N 79.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.8N 80.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 40.0N 78.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 76.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Hurricaneman]

seems to be at the moment, this storm is defying logic

[StormsAhead]

Another plane is on route towards Ernesto,this one departed from Keesler base.

There is also a NOAA plane out there making dropsondes for the models around the storm, although the low-level NOAA mission for this afternoon seems to have been cancelled because the center is inland.