Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

[gatorcane]

The 5PM is probably the most important advisory for me personally than I can remember.

So what do you think Luis?

[westmoon]

WTNT35 KNHC 282035
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED
FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[StormsAhead]

They found 45kts at flight level.

Make it now up to 46kts.

so what? is it strengthening?

An increase by 1 knot just means the plane was in the right place at the right time to measure the wind. However, it is possible that it is strengthening, but we won't know for sure until the center goes offshore.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 282039
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 25 KNHC
2030 2150N 07706W 00308 5023 070 036 200 200 039 00295 0000000000
2030. 2151N 07707W 00303 5023 065 041 204 204 042 00290 0000000000
2031 2152N 07709W 00305 5023 062 042 204 204 043 00292 0000000000
2031. 2153N 07710W 00305 5022 067 042 208 208 043 00293 0000000000
2032 2154N 07712W 00305 5021 070 044 212 212 045 00294 0000000000
2032. 2155N 07713W 00303 5021 073 043 208 208 045 00293 0000000000
2033 2156N 07715W 00306 5020 075 042 214 214 042 00296 0000000000
2033. 2157N 07716W 00305 5020 077 041 204 204 042 00295 0000000000
2034 2158N 07718W 00304 5019 077 039 210 210 041 00295 0000000000
2034. 2159N 07719W 00306 5018 078 035 208 208 036 00298 0000000000
2035 2200N 07721W 00305 5017 072 033 220 220 034 00299 0000000000
2035. 2201N 07722W 00303 5017 066 033 226 226 035 00296 0000000000
2036 2202N 07724W 00304 5016 065 033 226 226 033 00299 0000000000
2036. 2203N 07725W 00305 5016 061 031 226 226 032 00300 0000000000
2037 2204N 07727W 00304 5015 061 030 226 226 031 00299 0000000000
2037. 2205N 07728W 00306 5015 068 030 226 226 030 00301 0000000000
2038 2206N 07730W 00304 5014 066 029 226 226 030 00301 0000000000
2038. 2207N 07731W 00303 5014 069 030 228 220 030 00300 0000000000
2039 2208N 07733W 00304 5013 067 030 230 224 031 00301 0000000000
2039. 2209N 07734W 00305 5014 065 030 230 224 031 00302 0000000000

[Bgator]

What level are they flying at 850mb or 700mb if its 700mb its reducted by .9 which makes it 40kts...

[cycloneye]

The 5PM is probably the most important advisory for me personally than I can remember.

So what do you think Luis?

The good news is that they dont have it as a hurricane when it gets to Florida.

[mikatnight]

I'm undoubtedly wrong, but is that the beginnng of an eye (visable 19:45 UTC) forming just north of Sama Cuba at roughly 21.3/75.7?

[JPmia]

Well it appears they feel they have agreement on the FL landfal...but the question remains at what strength...NHC always states they don't have good skill at forecasting strength..especially when all the parameters for intensification exist. Hmm.

[dwg71]

I'm undoubtedly wrong, but is that the beginnng of an eye (visable 19:45 UTC) forming just north of Sama Cuba at roughly 21.3/75.7?

40MPH TS with suspect LLC usually dont have eyes...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 282049
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 26 KNHC
2040 2210N 07736W 00305 5013 065 030 230 226 030 00303 0000000000
2040. 2211N 07737W 00305 5013 064 029 230 224 029 00302 0000000000
2041 2212N 07738W 00305 5013 062 028 230 226 029 00303 0000000000
2041. 2212N 07740W 00304 5012 065 030 230 222 030 00303 0000000000
2042 2213N 07741W 00304 5011 068 030 232 222 031 00303 0000000000
2042. 2214N 07743W 00306 5010 068 030 232 224 031 00306 0000000000
2043 2215N 07744W 00305 5010 070 030 234 220 030 00306 0000000000
2043. 2216N 07746W 00305 5010 067 030 236 220 030 00305 0000000000
2044 2217N 07747W 00304 5010 064 029 236 222 030 00304 0000000000
2044. 2218N 07749W 00305 5010 065 029 232 224 031 00306 0000000000
2045 2219N 07750W 00305 5009 065 029 232 226 030 00306 0000000000
2045. 2220N 07752W 00305 5009 067 029 236 224 030 00306 0000000000
2046 2221N 07753W 00305 5009 068 030 236 222 031 00307 0000000000
2046. 2222N 07755W 00304 5009 068 031 236 222 032 00306 0000000000
2047 2223N 07756W 00302 5009 069 031 236 222 032 00304 0000000000
2047. 2224N 07758W 00306 5009 069 030 238 220 030 00308 0000000000
2048 2225N 07759W 00304 5008 069 029 238 216 029 00306 0000000000
2048. 2226N 07801W 00304 5008 071 028 238 218 030 00306 0000000000
2049 2227N 07802W 00305 5008 070 028 236 216 028 00307 0000000000
2049. 2228N 07804W 00304 5008 071 027 236 218 028 00306 0000000000

[Florida_brit]

Great map by Skeetobite showing next 48 hours inc. landfall for Florida: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=z&m=05

[/img]

[gatorcane]

The 5PM is probably the most important advisory for me personally than I can remember.

So what do you think Luis?

The good news is that they dont have it as a hurricane when it gets to Florida.

Yes they don't but I think the possibility still exists.

[Thunder44]

[StormsAhead]

What level are they flying at 850mb or 700mb if its 700mb its reducted by .9 which makes it 40kts...

They are flying at 1000 feet. The reduction is .8 so the surface wind is around 35 knots.

[MiamiensisWx]

The good news is that they dont have it as a hurricane when it gets to Florida.

Personally, I really don't think we should give the "good news" call so often due to a lower landfalling intensity. All storm can be and are destructive, be it a depression or a large major hurricane. There are many other factors besides intensity, too, which often are just as or even more important (size, windfield, angle relative to coastline, geography, etc.); also, the NHC intensity still has it as an upper-end (70MPH/60KT roughly) tropical storm at landfall - just 5MPH from the 75MPH/65KT threshold for hurricane intensity. I'm not advocating hype, but I think we should think more outside the box if we want to aid in true preparedness.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 282053
97779 20514 20225 78200 03000 08026 24211 /0011
40620
RMK AF309 1005A ERNESTO OB 09

Surface 20 knots, 1011mb

[Thunder44]

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES AND
SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A
CENTER. BUT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...THE CENTER
IS JUST INLAND OF THE NORTH COAST. THE SYSTEM BECAME QUITE
DISORGANIZED... WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND NEAR
THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY BE DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF ERNESTO. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...SOME NEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WE EXPECT SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. HOWEVER SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONE'S PASSAGE OVER LAND...IT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID. IN FACT...THE
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
FORECAST LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ERNESTO
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WARNED AREAS IN FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE MOTION...310/11...IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER
AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A MID-LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE GFS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHILE OTHERS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT OTHERWISE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND VERY CLOSE
TO THE GFDL PREDICTION. IN 3-5 DAYS THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED WESTWARD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 21.3N 76.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 78.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 24.3N 79.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1800Z 27.8N 80.8W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1800Z 32.5N 80.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/1800Z 40.0N 78.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH