Tropical Depression John in EPAC

[WmE]

I'm not sure if there's a thread about it, so I started one.

[SkeetoBite]

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 281501
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT MON AUG 28 2006

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEEN 2.5 OR 35 KT
AT BOTH 06 AND 12Z AND BANDING IN THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SINCE
12Z. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME AS A 30 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AT 305/8...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
DUE THE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES. DESPITE
THE INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY STRONG FROM 36 TO 96 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST TRACK
PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST AT THOSE TIMES. AT DAY 5...IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEND BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM AFTER 36
HOURS.

DUE TO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
WELL-ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...STEADY INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED
BY BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER DAY 3...THE WATER
TEMPERATURES DROP AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE...
SUGGESTING WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO LA
FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 13.2N 95.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 13.6N 97.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 14.1N 99.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.7N 100.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W 70 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA



Another cyclone for the EPAC in this active 2006 EPAC season.The next name will be John.

[gilbert88]

John! That name brings back memories from the crazy 1999 EPac season.

[CrazyC83]

1994 you probably mean. Yes it does bring back those memories!

[Cyclenall]

This one just popped up! So far, it has excellent banding features and is organized. Should be John and a hurricane in no time.

[Coredesat]

28/1745 UTC 13.4N 96.3W T3.0/3.0 11E

[Cyclenall]

The NRL has TD11-E at 35 knots. Do we have John?

[Annular Cane]

This is one of the most beautiful TDs I have ever seen. I wouldn't be surprised to see him upgraded this afternoon.

[WmE]

The NRL has TD11-E at 35 knots. Do we have John?

Yes, I'm quite confident. With Dvorak estimates of T3.0/3.0 it has to be a TS.

[cycloneye]

092
WTPZ41 KNHC 282050
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006

BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
TAFB PROVIDING A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5 OR 35 KT AND SAB GIVING 3.0
OR 45 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE TWO AT 40 KT AND THE
CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
RADII ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 NMI IN THE RIGHT
SEMICIRCLE.

SCATTER IN THE POSITION ESTIMATES HAS DECREASED AS ALL AGENCIES ARE
WITHIN 25 NMI OF EACH OTHER. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS CORROBORATED
WITH A TRMM PASS AT 1456Z WITH WELL-PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BANDS.
MOTION IS NOW MORE ACCURATELY ASSESSED AT 285/7...RATHER THAN THE
NORTHWEST TRACK INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOHN SHOULD
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JOHN'S MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS MOST
SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AS BOTH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ACCURATELY ANALYZED JOHN.

ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUGGEST CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...GFDL AND
FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS ALL BRING THE SYSTEM UP TO A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS. WHILE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWN HERE SUGGESTS JOHN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36
HOURS...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES
THAT JOHN MAY REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY SOONER THAN INDICATED. THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY DAY FIVE DUE TO COOLER SSTS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...EXCEPT TO SHOW
FASTER WEAKENING AT DAY FIVE.

GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF JOHN'S TRACK TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...INTERESTS FROM ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 13.4N 96.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 13.7N 97.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.1N 99.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 16.2N 103.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA



We now have TS John.

[Cyclenall]

On the NHC site, it says "Tropical Storm Eleven".

[CrazyC83]

On the NHC site, it says "Tropical Storm Eleven".

Obviously an error. The only time a tropical storm goes unnamed is if it is strengthened from a depression - or discovered for the first time - after the fact.

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall,they peak the intensity at 90kts.Do you think John will reach major cane status?

My take is yes,it will reach it as conditions are very favorable with high sst's and low shear.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this will top 105 knots. This will be big!

Also this has a better chance of going up the zone!!!!

[Cyclenall]

Cyclenall,they peak the intensity at 90kts.Do you think John will reach major cane status?

Yes, I believe John will reach major strength, just like Ileana. The reason is it already looks like a strong system that can start intensifying quickly right away. It's in a area where RI can happen.

My take is yes,it will reach it as conditions are very favorable with high sst's and low shear.

Yes.

[bombarderoazul]

Not bad for the Epac, September should be a busy month for the EPAC, it's their busiest month.

[Cyclenall]

I just wish these storms would go a lot more west so they can continue to strengthen like Daniel. If they did (Ileana, John) then who knows.

Here is a good loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

I can't seem to use the AVN to get a good idea on John this time around. It looks like fast strengthening is in order.

[bombarderoazul]

It should be a hurricane by tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 290245
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006

JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH VIGOROUS
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. IN FACT...THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE MAY BE FORMING.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 AND 55 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT IS SET
AT THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE UW-CIMSS RAW ADT
VALUES BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. JOHN
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A NEAR OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS JOHN
BECOMING AT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS
MODEL INDICATES A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRING
JOHN CLOSE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/06 IS BASED ON A RECENT AMSR-E
MICROWAVE FIX AT 1937 UTC. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ON
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED AS JOHN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFDL BEING ON THE FAR RIGHT OR EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL
SUITE AND THE GFS BEING ON THE FAR LEFT OR WEST SIDE. THE GFS
ANALYSIS OF JOHN APPEARS MUCH TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW...RESULTING IN
A DUE WEST MOTION INITIALLY. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS LESS
LIKELY...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL MODEL.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JOHN PARALLELING THE COAST OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
TRACK TO THE COAST AND THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MEXICAN COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.9N 97.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 99.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 15.5N 101.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 16.3N 103.4W 95 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 19.4N 108.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN