Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[MiamiensisWx]

While yall should remain vigilant. The impression comes across that some of you are disappointed that a major is not forecasted.

Consider yourselves lucky if you get by with a minimal cat 1...

I'm not disappointed that a major is not expected and is not supported by the synoptics, but comments that state "wimpy, wimpy, wimpy" just serve to let the guards of many down. I don't like hype, but after Wilma and other storms last year, it's disturbing to see attitudes like this unfold by some. Sure, it's not a Rita or Katrina, but that doesn't really serve as a good comparison - only as a "feel good" message to let vigilance and knowledge to slip out of grasp.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I guess NHC is not buying the Euro or the blocking. Cool.

[HurricaneJim]

my feeling is that it will rapidly intensify tonight and we will see a huge blowup of convection during the late night diurnal maximum. Just my gut feeling.

one word: Wilma.

Damn right! That one was forecasted to dissapate! Expect anything from this little guy. He beat the shear, he's made a fool out of the models and he don't seem to want to go away.


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[storms in NC]

Why did they have to put me on the west side of the storm?As of the 5PM up date

[Meso]

Yeah, I agree... Anything could happen,and it's stupid to completely put aside the idea of the possibility of it intensifying rapidly. It's happened time and time again where the impossible seems to happen.. Imho,I would say low end CAt 1 or so when it hits florida and then the East Coast watch shall start. But the pottential is deffinitly there for it to become better organised by the time it hits florida...

New members seem to not be used to how things work here..

[WxGuy1]

my feeling is that it will rapidly intensify tonight and we will see a huge blowup of convection during the late night diurnal maximum. Just my gut feeling.

one word: Wilma.

Is that kind of explosion even possible where he is at?

Maximum potential intensity (see http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html ) does support Cat 5 <920mb storm in that area. BUT, Ernesto has been beaten vigorously the past two days, and it's core isn't entirely a model of organization. Perhaps if we were talking about 48 hrs over warm SSTs we could make a better case for rapid intensification, but the forecast doesn't allow for that.

Wilma is such an anamoly that it isn't funny. The chances that we'll see intensification like that in the next 20 (or 40) years is small, IMO.

As others have said -- anything is possible! There's a reason why forecasts are becoming more probability-based -- there's less of an "I told you so" possibility. Is there a chance Ernesto could rapidly intensify to a Cat 4? Yes, but it's probably not worth worrying about. A Cat 1? Yes, and a probability more worth preparing for, IMO.

[SouthFloridawx]

While yall should remain vigilant. The impression comes across that some of you are disappointed that a major is not forecasted.

Consider yourselves lucky if you get by with a minimal cat 1...

I'm not disappointed that a major is not expected and is not supported by the synoptics, but comments that state "wimpy, wimpy, wimpy" just serve to let the guards of many down. I don't like hype, but after Wilma and other storms last year, it's disturbing to see attitudes like this unfold by some. Sure, it's not a Rita or Katrina, but that doesn't really serve as a good comparison - only as a "feel good" message to let vigilance and knowledge to slip out of grasp.

I totally agree with you Capeverdewave... I am currently at work and the 5pm advisory came out. People were relieved that is was "only" a tropical storm... as if 70MPH is not 4 mph close to a hurricane. Hmm... There is still a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. I think if this is the accepted way to look at that here, there is a big problem. It has approximately 30hours before landfall. I know a few storms that have strengthend in that time frame.

I am not disappointed at all with the downgrade and I think they had no choice to do it but, I do not want to wake up in 14 hours tomorrow to a Catagory one bearning down when no one prepared after this was "down-graded".

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html



it seems to be finishing the circulation peice that it is missing.

[HurricaneJim]

I don't know, Katrina went 1 to 5 in 24hrs.

But CAT 5 on this one is a bit of a stretch.


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[gatorcane]

While yall should remain vigilant. The impression comes across that some of you are disappointed that a major is not forecasted.

Consider yourselves lucky if you get by with a minimal cat 1...

I'm not disappointed that a major is not expected and is not supported by the synoptics, but comments that state "wimpy, wimpy, wimpy" just serve to let the guards of many down. I don't like hype, but after Wilma and other storms last year, it's disturbing to see attitudes like this unfold by some. Sure, it's not a Rita or Katrina, but that doesn't really serve as a good comparison - only as a "feel good" message to let vigilance and knowledge to slip out of grasp.

I don't like the comparisons to Katrina. Much of Palm Beach didn't see more than 40mph winds. This time it could be MUCH worse....

Katrina cannot be used for comparison purposes.

I totally agree with you Capeverdewave... I am currently at work and the 5pm advisory came out. People were relieved that is was "only" a tropical storm... as if 70MPH is not 4 mph close to a hurricane. Hmm... There is still a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. I think if this is the accepted way to look at that here, there is a big problem. It has approximately 30hours before landfall. I know a few storms that have strengthend in that time frame.

I am not disappointed at all with the downgrade and I think they had no choice to do it but, I do not want to wake up in 14 hours tomorrow to a Catagory one bearning down when no one prepared after this was "down-graded".

[Evil Jeremy]

i expect this one to be a Cat 2 at the most, 1 at the least, but this can all still change! storms have a habit of turining into monsters overnight. Katrina and Wilma did.

[cheezyWXguy]

my feeling is that it will rapidly intensify tonight and we will see a huge blowup of convection during the late night diurnal maximum. Just my gut feeling.

one word: Wilma.

Is that kind of explosion even possible where he is at?

Of course not...Wilma's intensity and its rapid strengthening was unprecidented

[Blown Away]

I see convection the NHC noted, firing near the NHC estimated position.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[tgenius]

Max Mayfield said to Norcross he thinks that the storm will not intensify anytime soon so long as COC remains close to Cuban Coastline.


Also, Katrina v1 was TS wind in Miami, so people should not let their guard down.

[fci]

my feeling is that it will rapidly intensify tonight and we will see a huge blowup of convection during the late night diurnal maximum. Just my gut feeling.

one word: Wilma.

Sorry Evil but Wilma and Ernesto is like comparing the Miami Dolphins to South Planatation High!

A former Cat 5 in October in the NW Carib to a NEVER strong barely a TS.

No comparison can be made.

[Stratosphere747]

You may have missed my point CVW. I think you, along with those that understand the prospects and overall seriousness of a major, and act accordingly, know to remain vigilant.

Others here are either downplaying it, or frankly upset that it is no longer forecasted to be a major -- hence my comments of the area or areas being lucky if Ernesto only impacts as a Cat 1.


On topic -- At least the circulation has been disrupted, which has at least for the short-term limited his chances of becoming a major. Hopefully for yall this will stay this way.

Scott

[melhow]

Are these the latest model plots?:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

And if so, have they developed more of a "C" shaped bend over SF than the last set?

[Damar91]

Thanks for the detailed response, Wx Guy! I guess we can only sit and wait. You know, I'd almost rather have a Cat 5 hurricane on my doorstep; at least you would know what is coming. This storm is madning. I can't even imagine what you guys as pros are going through.

[Blown Away]

How many are putting up shutters??

[Evil Jeremy]

How many are putting up shutters??

my eighbors are doing floors 1 and 2 now and my other neighbors are doing theirs tommarow.