Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #441 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:16 pm

It has now moving out of the weakness area...The ridge base is around 21-22 north...Which grows stronger as you go up from 850 to 500 mililbars. Even more stronger as you go 400 to 200 millibars. This should turn the cyclone to the west-northwest over the next 6 to 24 hours. The deep layer trough over the central US, is centered at around 90 west at 850 millibars...But its upper level support at 500 to 200 millibars is back at near 100 west. So this should force the high to back eastward around 36 hours...Which should lift the cyclone northward across the coastline.

Upper level shear looks pretty faverable over all. At least for some slow strengthing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

#442 Postby **fci** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:16 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
smacky wrote:wimpy, wimpy, wimpy, wimpy !. I have surfed it bigger storms than this.

Wow, lots of useful imput to the discussion there.

I don't expect a major hurricane either, but we shouldn't let guards down.

I think the Mods deleted "Smacky's" wimpy comment which was, plain and simple; ignorant.

I am not scared of a 70 mph TS like a Cat 1/2 Hurricane but it can do a lot of damage.

Stormavoider · #443 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:16 pm

The NASA visible is available again.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19.5&lon=-75.5&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

HurricaneJim · #444 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:18 pm

Tougth little storm no matter where it goes. really fighting against a lot of odds to stay in the game.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

gtsmith · #445 Postby **gtsmith** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:18 pm

My condo does not have shutters, but it faces west with only really two small windows...my patio has screens as a barrier to the interior sliding glass doors. They survived Wilma, Jeanne and Francis with no damage, so I feel pretty ok with this storm. I'll be at my inlaws and they have accordian style. I'll be pulling those shut tomorrow morning.

As far as schools, I just heard that Palm Beach Co and St Lucie Cnty are closed Tues and Wed. martin cty will have a half day tomorrow and closed on wed

MiamiensisWx · #446 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:I don't like the comparisons to Katrina. Much of Palm Beach didn't see more than 40mph winds. This time it could be MUCH worse....

Katrina cannot be used for comparison purposes.

I think you misread my statement. I was not referring to Katrina's rapid intensification to a Category Five in the south-central Gulf, or to the winds recorded in Palm Beach County or elsewhere in southern Florida, but to the fact that tropical storm-force winds and heavy flooding caused extensive to severe damage in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, as well as disruption of jobs and thousands without power. Even up in Palm Beach County, where winds were below tropical storm force, it was still VERY impressive, caused loss of power to many, and resulted in extensive tree and landscape damage.

Maybe we should stop comparing everything to a major hurricane like Katrina, Rita, or Wilma (or Dennis or Emily) at peak intensity. It would help raise awareness that the destruction (and disruption) even a tropical depression can bring, many times chiefly by flooding. Don't say that depressions can't cause wind damage, either. Tropical Storm Gordon in 1994 brought winds below tropical storm force to my old area in Fort Lauderdale, yet extensive tree damage still resulted. Also, other areas in southern Florida received true tropical storm-force sustained winds anyway, like Virginia Key. Besides, the flooding, in addition, was TREMENDOUS. Just my two cents based on expert opinion, a blend of many opinions, studies, facts, other factors, and personal experience.

Really, I also think we should stop saying "it could have been worse". Of course it can always get worse. We can go round and round about doomsday scenarios and never accomplish anything at truly educating people about true preparedness, knowledge, and realizing the destruction even depressions and tropical waves and Category One/Category Two hurricanes can bring. Not everything is a Katrina or Rita (Gulf coast versions), so why keep doing those comparisons? In the long run, only complacency is restored and educating the public about preparedness and the destruction even waves, depressions, and non-major (per Saffir-Simpson Scale) hurricanes can bring. Let's be reasonable here.

#447 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:19 pm

Blown_away wrote:How many are putting up shutters??

I'm getting the house ready, and putting up the harder 2nd story today... if this is looking really bad tomorrow then i'll finish the rest at 7am when I have a group of people coming to help

It sadly takes about 20 hours with 4 people working non stop to put up my whole houses shutters.

Way too many windows and expanses, great views though

I have a feeling this will either be really weak tomorrow, or moving toward being a cat2. Depending on what we see in the morning, i'll decide what i'm going to do. Bought all my new chains and bars for my chainsaw today.

southerngale · #448 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:20 pm

Is it even moving? This is only a 4 hour loop, but I can't see any movement at all, while everything else around it moves right along.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

CocoCreek · #449 Postby **CocoCreek** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:20 pm

It has been interesting to watch that large blob of convection that has been stuck in almost a stationary position to the SE of the coast of Cuba all day. It's almost as if all of that activity is butting up against the mountains there and refusing to budge at whatever level those peaks are at, allowing the center to detach and run away from it.

#450 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:21 pm

the 11PM advisory is my hit me/miss me deadline.

#451 Postby **melhow** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:21 pm

melhow wrote:Are these the latest model plots?:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

And if so, have they developed more of a "C" shaped bend over SF than the last set?

Hmm..busted link? Here's what I was linking to:

#452 Postby **fci** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:21 pm

gtsmith wrote:My condo does not have shutters, but it faces west with only really two small windows...my patio has screens as a barrier to the interior sliding glass doors. They survived Wilma, Jeanne and Francis with no damage, so I feel pretty ok with this storm. I'll be at my inlaws and they have accordian style. I'll be pulling those shut tomorrow morning.

As far as schools, I just heard that Palm Beach Co and St Lucie Cnty are closed Tues and Wed. martin cty will have a half day tomorrow and closed on wed

Last I heard Palm Beach Co schools are closed on Tuesday and will evaluate wednesday's status on Tuesday afternoon.

HurricaneHunter914 · #453 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:21 pm

Looks like ther has been a shift back to the west agian.

#454 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:22 pm

5:00PM position.

#455 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:22 pm

Here is the main reason i keep telling myself to prepare to the full extent....

#456 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:22 pm

19:15 Image

21:15 Image

Damar91 · #457 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:23 pm

Some nice convection just north of the center flaring up. I agree though, tonight is Ernesto's time to "put up" or "shut up"!

cinlfla · #458 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:24 pm

TampaFl wrote:5:00PM position.

I love this visual, please continue to post these.

#459 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:26 pm

...IT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID. IN FACT...THE
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.

20% is still somthing to look out for.

gtsmith · #460 Postby **gtsmith** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:26 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:[snip]...Which should lift the cyclone northward across the coastline.

hey Matt-would you claziryf please? Which coastline?

Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

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