TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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tgenius
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TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

#1 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:45 pm

Here's thread #5 as #4 reached 25 page limit.
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#2 Postby gtsmith » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:46 pm

This morning I was on page 25 of an earlier thread part, kept refreshing the page for like 20 minutes (in between doing work)...and i couldn't believe no one was posting...then of course I went back to the forum index and saw the next thread had started...and i was three pages behind... :oops:
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#3 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:47 pm

okay so back to the big thunderstorms I am seeing now just west of the center - looks like the intensification phase has just begun as the center is slowly getting back over water....
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#4 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:47 pm

I thought my thread was first. Oh well. Where is the center of Ernesto?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:48 pm

Don't take this storm as a joke...The enviroment is pretty faverable overall, also the system has holded on good over Cuba. If this doe's not make landfall over Florida, then this could be stronger then a cat1. SC landfall.

Or it could even go through the keys...It has all to do with how strong that ridge holds.
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#6 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:48 pm

Erny looks like it starting to get its act together, IMO
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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#7 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:49 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I thought my thread was first. Oh well. Where is the center of Ernesto?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg


Actually recon is still looking for it, and until you see a VDM, nobody really knows.
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#8 Postby Myersgirl » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:49 pm

Is the NHC track the eastern outlier?
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:49 pm

A local news channel here in South Florida just said "good news with Ernesto" due to it now being forecasted as a TS here.

Even if that did happen, which I think we will see stronger, the difference between 70mph and 75mph is negligible.

So there is no good news...I love the media :grr:
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#10 Postby jpigott » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:50 pm

question for the promets, it appears that thunderstorms are again developing over the LLC. But what of the old MLC, what happens to that. Will it dissipate if the thunderstorms over the LLC persist, is this storm going to be able to vertically stack
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#11 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:50 pm

Sure seems like it at the moment Myersgirl... 18z runs will be aval when?
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#12 Postby tallywx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:50 pm

What about that pesky ULL just 50 miles or so north of Ernesto's center. How much of a negative influence is that imparting, and for how long?
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#13 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:51 pm

tgenius wrote:Sure seems like it at the moment Myersgirl... 18z runs will be aval when?


2 hours tops now.
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:52 pm

tallywx wrote:What about that pesky ULL just 50 miles or so north of Ernesto's center. How much of a negative influence is that imparting, and for how long?


its moving West and dissipating. Ernesto will have near perfect conditions in 6 hours and through the night. Perfect for RI.
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#15 Postby storms in NC » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:52 pm

Like I said it will come in between SC and NC border
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:53 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I thought my thread was first. Oh well. Where is the center of Ernesto?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg


Your thread came below the other one at the page.
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Re: Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

#17 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:54 pm

Re: The satellite eclipse.

Same time as last night. :x :roll:
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#18 Postby Hurricanevideo » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:56 pm

Yeah some nice new convective development on the west and northwest quad.

vis loop :
http://www.hurricanevideo.com/ernesto/ernesto_cuba_vis2d_loop.gif
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#19 Postby Myersgirl » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:56 pm

Not to be critical, but, it seems that intensity forecast are the NHC's weakest area so preparing for a cat or (in the case of Charlie) or two above forecast is my plan
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Re: Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

#20 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:56 pm

Brent wrote:Re: The satellite eclipse.

Same time as last night. :x :roll:

Why don't they put batteries on them? Too heavy?
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