Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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Thunder44
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#2501 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:52 pm

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StormsAhead
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#2502 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:54 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 282249
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 38 KNHC
2240 2139N 07656W 00305 5033 123 027 222 222 027 00282 0000000000
2240. 2139N 07658W 00305 5034 124 025 224 224 025 00282 0000000000
2241 2140N 07659W 00304 5035 127 026 222 222 027 00280 0000000000
2241. 2141N 07701W 00304 5036 131 026 224 224 027 00278 0000000000
2242 2141N 07703W 00306 5036 130 026 222 222 027 00280 0000000000
2242. 2142N 07705W 00304 5035 127 024 222 222 025 00280 0000000000
2243 2143N 07706W 00305 5035 121 024 224 224 025 00281 0000000000
2243. 2144N 07708W 00305 5033 117 023 224 224 024 00283 0000000000
2244 2144N 07710W 00304 5033 114 023 222 222 023 00282 0000000000
2244. 2145N 07711W 00306 5032 110 024 216 216 024 00284 0000000000
2245 2146N 07713W 00304 5032 108 025 224 224 025 00282 0000000000
2245. 2146N 07715W 00304 5031 108 025 226 226 025 00283 0000000000
2246 2147N 07716W 00307 5030 103 023 222 222 024 00287 0000000000
2246. 2148N 07718W 00302 5030 087 025 228 228 025 00282 0000000000
2247 2149N 07719W 00306 5029 085 025 226 226 025 00288 0000000000
2247. 2150N 07721W 00304 5028 079 024 228 228 025 00287 0000000000
2248 2151N 07722W 00305 5027 081 024 226 226 024 00288 0000000000
2248. 2153N 07723W 00304 5027 083 025 228 226 025 00287 0000000000
2249 2154N 07724W 00306 5026 083 024 226 226 024 00290 0000000000
2249. 2155N 07725W 00304 5026 085 022 228 228 022 00289 0000000000

No 40+ knots this time around, although heights are still low
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Thunder44
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#2503 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:59 pm

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sweetpea
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#2504 Postby sweetpea » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:01 pm

Thunder, on your last couple of images I haven't seen the center mark. Are they still trying to get a fix? Thanks

By the way, great job your doing.
Debbie
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StormsAhead
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#2505 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:02 pm

URNT11 KNHC 282249
97779 22454 20218 77308 03100 10023 22228 /0008
40725
RMK AF309 1005A ERNESTO OB 12

25 knots, 1008mb
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#2506 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:02 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 282259
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 39 KNHC
2250 2157N 07727W 00305 5025 084 025 228 228 028 00290 0000000000
2250. 2158N 07728W 00306 5025 082 027 226 226 027 00291 0000000000
2251 2159N 07729W 00304 5025 081 027 226 226 028 00289 0000000000
2251. 2200N 07730W 00306 5025 069 028 206 206 031 00291 0000000000
2252 2202N 07731W 00305 5025 068 030 224 224 030 00291 0000000000
2252. 2203N 07732W 00303 5024 068 031 226 226 032 00289 0000000000
2253 2204N 07733W 00306 5023 069 032 226 226 033 00293 0000000000
2253. 2205N 07734W 00305 5022 065 031 224 224 032 00294 0000000000
2254 2207N 07735W 00304 5021 069 031 224 224 032 00294 0000000000
2254. 2208N 07736W 00305 5020 075 031 226 226 032 00295 0000000000
2255 2209N 07737W 00304 5019 074 032 226 224 032 00295 0000000000
2255. 2211N 07739W 00305 5019 075 032 226 224 032 00297 0000000000
2256 2212N 07740W 00304 5018 072 031 222 222 031 00297 0000000000
2256. 2213N 07741W 00305 5017 074 031 226 220 032 00298 0000000000
2257 2214N 07742W 00305 5016 075 030 224 220 031 00299 0000000000
2257. 2216N 07743W 00304 5016 078 032 222 220 033 00298 0000000000
2258 2217N 07744W 00304 5016 079 033 230 218 034 00298 0000000000
2258. 2218N 07745W 00308 5015 079 033 230 224 035 00303 0000000000
2259 2220N 07746W 00301 5015 061 033 242 226 034 00296 0000000000
2259. 2221N 07747W 00306 5015 060 033 240 224 033 00302 0000000000
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#2507 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:04 pm

It has been quite a few hours since the NHC has been confident in the actual center. Until you see a VDM from recon, anything is nothing but a guess right now.

Most likely the center is still not far enough offshore for recon to get an actual fix.

Also the obs are not impressive either, in fact down a bit from earlier.
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#2508 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:07 pm

Bret had a eye...

So if they where to fly over Cuba would they get shot at?
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#2509 Postby kevin » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:07 pm

Probably. Probably the same response if a MiG went over the everglades.
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#2510 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:08 pm

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#2511 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:12 pm

sweetpea wrote:Thunder, on your last couple of images I haven't seen the center mark. Are they still trying to get a fix? Thanks

By the way, great job your doing.
Debbie


I'll put the position NHC has in their advisory but the recon isn't doing any fix until the center goes back over water.
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#2512 Postby sweetpea » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:17 pm

Oh okay thanks Thunder.

Debbie
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#2513 Postby hial2 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:21 pm

[quote="kevin"]Probably. Probably the same response if a MiG went over the everglades.[/quote

a noaa plane is not a fighter plane....we do not shoot down unarmed planes...unlike a nearby country :(
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#2514 Postby kevin » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:24 pm

I don't care to get political, because I'm in no way supporting the Cuban government. What I am saying is any government has the sovereign right to deny airspace to any plane it wishes. And yes, the US will shoot down any plane that enters and stays within its territory without permission.
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#2515 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:24 pm

hial2 wrote:
kevin wrote:Probably. Probably the same response if a MiG went over the everglades.[/quote

a noaa plane is not a fighter plane....we do not shoot down unarmed planes...unlike a nearby country :(


They would shoot down our NOAA/Recon planes as quickly as we would shoot down one of thier MiG's...

Get it...;)
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#2516 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:25 pm

Let's refrain from politics.
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#2517 Postby Bane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:25 pm

how many of you even now what you're talking about when it comes to cuba and the u.s.?
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#2518 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let's refrain from politics.
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#2519 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:29 pm

189
SXXX50 KNHC 282309
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 40 KNHC
2300 2222N 07748W 00304 5015 061 033 242 222 034 00300 0000000000
2300. 2223N 07749W 00305 5014 060 034 244 222 034 00301 0000000000
2301 2224N 07750W 00303 5013 061 034 242 224 035 00300 0000000000
2301. 2226N 07751W 00303 5012 064 032 242 226 033 00302 0000000000
2302 2226N 07750W 00307 5012 057 029 242 224 031 00305 0000000000
2302. 2224N 07749W 00306 5014 052 031 242 226 031 00303 0000000000
2303 2223N 07749W 00304 5015 051 030 242 224 030 00300 0000000000
2303. 2221N 07748W 00304 5015 055 029 242 226 030 00300 0000000000
2304 2220N 07747W 00306 5015 057 029 242 226 030 00302 0000000000
2304. 2219N 07746W 00303 5015 071 027 236 224 029 00298 0000000000
2305 2218N 07745W 00306 5016 070 025 236 220 027 00300 0000000000
2305. 2217N 07744W 00304 5017 080 026 228 216 026 00297 0000000000
2306 2216N 07743W 00306 5017 075 027 228 216 027 00299 0000000000
2306. 2215N 07742W 00304 5018 072 025 226 214 026 00297 0000000000
2307 2214N 07741W 00306 5019 072 023 224 214 024 00298 0000000000
2307. 2212N 07740W 00304 5019 073 024 224 212 024 00295 0000000000
2308 2211N 07739W 00305 5020 068 025 228 216 026 00296 0000000000
2308. 2210N 07737W 00304 5020 065 027 228 224 027 00294 0000000000
2309 2209N 07736W 00305 5020 070 027 228 220 028 00296 0000000000
2309. 2208N 07735W 00305 5020 069 029 230 222 029 00295 0000000000
;


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#2520 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:31 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Bret had a eye...

So if they where to fly over Cuba would they get shot at?


Bryon Norcross said earlier that it has nothing to do with politics but is because they don't fly over land because of turbulence.
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