TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[johngaltfla]

If this stays on WNW for the next 12-18 hours, I think I'm going to get excited. In the mean time, the UKMET model has a different solution and I'm wondering (from a historical perspective, not intensity) if this storm will follow a track more like Donna, than what's being forecast now.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

[Stormavoider]

This thing looks horrible right now. It will have a very hard time becoming anything higher than a 50mph tropical storm.

It looks like a TD not even a storm. Alberto makes Ernesto look like Katrina.

Go here:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Go to any of the buoys in the keys, click on the graph for atmospheric pressure. You will find current pressures lower than anything in 5 days. The wind directions are all consistent with a possible Ernie influence. I would guess if you look in any direction from Ernie you will See the stage is preset. Just add an open water center and I think we have real trouble.

[sweetpea]

I was just looking at an updated model plot and I am noticing that most of the models except 3 or either over my head or to the West of me. But I am not under any kind of watch, it stops 40 miles South of me. Any ideas why this could be?

Debbie

[deltadog03]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

now look at this...The ULL and Ernie are moving in tandom at the moment to the WNW.

[wxman57]

Ernesto looks quite terrible tonight for a TS, but it refuses to die. Moderate shear from an upper low to its west continues to disrupt the storm. There is poor to now inflow into the center as the center is so weak. Hard to get going when convergence is lacking.

The upper low is beginning to accelerate to the WSW into the FL Straits tonight, and Ernesto’s MLC is following the coast of Cuba in its wake. The LLC is very weak and probably near where the NHC just estimated (21.4N/77.4W). It’s too weak to survive on its own, so it is following the MLC and/or redeveloping west-northwestward near the northern coast of Cuba. This could take the center to the WNW before the upper trof reaches the east coast and draws it northward.

The result could be Ernesto’s center moving ashore into the SW peninsula rather than by Miami. But the continued interaction with the upper low (shear) and proximity to Cuba is also preventing any intensification. So some good news for Florida wind-wise is that if it tacks WNW then northward, there won’t be as much time for intensification prior to reaching the southern FL Peninsula. If the center gets dragged far enough westward, then it may just run right up the FL peninsula and not move off the east coast.

I’m not saying this will definitely happen, just that it’s a possibility we have to watch for tonight. If Ernesto tracks inland into the peninsula farther west, probably the greatest risk to Florida would be much heavier rainfall over the western half of the peninsula.

[wxman57]

I was just looking at an updated model plot and I am noticing that most of the models except 3 or either over my head or to the West of me. But I am not under any kind of watch, it stops 40 miles South of me. Any ideas why this could be?

Debbie

Watches are issued when tropical storm or hurricane-force winds are possible within 36 hours. If you're beyond that time threshold, there won't be a watch issued. That should change soon.

[ronjon]

interesting this the first WNW jog we have seen from Ernesto....very interesting and fortunate that center is still inland.

Last 3 hrs - 0.1 N, 0.5 W!

you are witnessing the saving grace for South Florida I think.....and if it doesn't make it over water in the next 6 hours or so....it could be a much weaker situation than originally thought.

Or.... the faster, more westward movement allows the storm to make enough longitude to miss the peninsula when it turns N-NW. Based on the last 6 hr fixes prior to the 8 PM location, I had it near 24.3 80.5 in 18 hrs, the GFDL model has it slightly east of this location in 30 hrs.

[cpdaman]

that movement may just have saved south fl causing another 6 to 12 hours over cuba as per nhc

[caneman]

Another concern would be if he does come up at say 82.5 North just offshore to Big Bend will have more time on open water. Does bear watching. If he hit Miami only had 120 miles to work with in extreme E. Gulf would have some 300+ miles. Something to think about. Almost looks possible that it could actually reach Caribb water just South of Cuba in next 6 hours. Interesting

[johngaltfla]

Ernesto looks quite terrible tonight for a TS, but it refuses to die. Moderate shear from an upper low to its west continues to disrupt the storm. There is poor to now inflow into the center as the center is so weak. Hard to get going when convergence is lacking.

The upper low is beginning to accelerate to the WSW into the FL Straits tonight, and Ernesto’s MLC is following the coast of Cuba in its wake. The LLC is very weak and probably near where the NHC just estimated (21.4N/77.4W). It’s too weak to survive on its own, so it is following the MLC and/or redeveloping west-northwestward near the northern coast of Cuba. This could take the center to the WNW before the upper trof reaches the east coast and draws it northward.

The result could be Ernesto’s center moving ashore into the SW peninsula rather than by Miami. But the continued interaction with the upper low (shear) and proximity to Cuba is also preventing any intensification. So some good news for Florida wind-wise is that if it tacks WNW then northward, there won’t be as much time for intensification prior to reaching the southern FL Peninsula. If the center gets dragged far enough westward, then it may just run right up the FL peninsula and not move off the east coast.

I’m not saying this will definitely happen, just that it’s a possibility we have to watch for tonight. If Ernesto tracks inland into the peninsula farther west, probably the greatest risk to Florida would be much heavier rainfall over the western half of the peninsula.

Thank you wxman. I think that's what I was presenting as a supposition, but I'm not as scientifically inclined to present it properly.

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060829 0000 060829 1200 060830 0000 060830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.4N 77.4W 22.1N 79.2W 23.1N 80.9W 24.1N 82.3W
BAMM 21.4N 77.4W 22.4N 79.2W 23.6N 80.8W 24.9N 82.0W
A98E 21.4N 77.4W 22.4N 79.2W 23.6N 80.9W 25.4N 82.1W
LBAR 21.4N 77.4W 22.5N 79.4W 23.8N 80.9W 25.2N 82.0W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 44KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 44KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060831 0000 060901 0000 060902 0000 060903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 83.2W 28.9N 82.9W 33.0N 81.1W 36.9N 76.5W
BAMM 26.3N 82.5W 30.0N 80.4W 33.5N 77.5W 37.0N 74.7W
A98E 27.9N 82.3W 31.9N 81.8W 35.5N 79.2W 38.6N 75.1W
LBAR 26.5N 82.4W 28.8N 82.1W 31.8N 81.0W 35.6N 77.7W
SHIP 58KTS 71KTS 77KTS 75KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 77.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 75.5W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 74.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$

[shaggy]

of greater concern for me is the track after leaving florida if he were to move just 50 miles to the east of the current forecasted track he would not make landfall until the NC coast which allows alot more time over water and the possibilty of him becoming slightly stronger but the track has changed so many times i doubt this one will stay like this at 11pm

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks like Ernie has his eyes on my neck of the woods

[Wthrman13]

Ernesto looks quite terrible tonight for a TS, but it refuses to die. Moderate shear from an upper low to its west continues to disrupt the storm. There is poor to now inflow into the center as the center is so weak. Hard to get going when convergence is lacking.

The upper low is beginning to accelerate to the WSW into the FL Straits tonight, and Ernesto’s MLC is following the coast of Cuba in its wake. The LLC is very weak and probably near where the NHC just estimated (21.4N/77.4W). It’s too weak to survive on its own, so it is following the MLC and/or redeveloping west-northwestward near the northern coast of Cuba. This could take the center to the WNW before the upper trof reaches the east coast and draws it northward.

The result could be Ernesto’s center moving ashore into the SW peninsula rather than by Miami. But the continued interaction with the upper low (shear) and proximity to Cuba is also preventing any intensification. So some good news for Florida wind-wise is that if it tacks WNW then northward, there won’t be as much time for intensification prior to reaching the southern FL Peninsula. If the center gets dragged far enough westward, then it may just run right up the FL peninsula and not move off the east coast.

I’m not saying this will definitely happen, just that it’s a possibility we have to watch for tonight. If Ernesto tracks inland into the peninsula farther west, probably the greatest risk to Florida would be much heavier rainfall over the western half of the peninsula.

I mostly agree, except about the shear. Yes, earlier today the UL was imparting some light to moderate NW shear, restricting the outflow to the NW. Since that time, however, the outflow has expanded to the NW, and as a matter of fact, the UL is enhancing a nice outflow channel to the N. As the UL continues SW, I think we will see even more improvement of the outflow pattern. The CIMSS analyses shows less than 5 kts of shear over the core of the system, with some mid-level shear over the convective band to the east of the core (but that's to be expected, and is probably due to the TC circulation itself).

[JonathanBelles]

looks like Ernie has his eyes on my neck of the woods

startn to look that way here too.

[SouthFloridawx]

Another concern would be if he does come up at say 82.5 North just offshore to Big Bend will have more time on open water. Does bear watching. If he hit Miami only had 120 miles to work with in extreme E. Gulf would have some 300+ miles. Something to think about. Almost looks possible that it could actually reach Caribb water just South of Cuba in next 6 hours. Interesting

Actually Ernesto is currently a little over 300 miles from the current position.

[caneman]

Another concern would be if he does come up at say 82.5 North just offshore to Big Bend will have more time on open water. Does bear watching. If he hit Miami only had 120 miles to work with in extreme E. Gulf would have some 300+ miles. Something to think about. Almost looks possible that it could actually reach Caribb water just South of Cuba in next 6 hours. Interesting

Actually Ernesto is currently a little over 300 miles from the current position.

????

[LeeJet]

Can anybody concur with me, and see the center going now more N and the center heading out of land soon?

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

Another concern would be if he does come up at say 82.5 North just offshore to Big Bend will have more time on open water. Does bear watching. If he hit Miami only had 120 miles to work with in extreme E. Gulf would have some 300+ miles. Something to think about. Almost looks possible that it could actually reach Caribb water just South of Cuba in next 6 hours. Interesting

Actually Ernesto is currently a little over 300 miles from the current position.

????

[CocoCreek]

Can anybody concur with me, and see the center going now more N and the center heading out of land soon?

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Either a slightly more northerly component than the last few hours or quite possibly not moving that much in either direction. Hard to tell from that radar site.