TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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theworld
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#261 Postby theworld » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:12 pm

At this last image from most recent NRL loop, it looks like its blown apart and drifting ?

NRL image


*edited by sg - was a MEGA link ;)
Last edited by theworld on Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#262 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:13 pm

There is quite a bit of debate on here of whether this is the same location that Chris died earlier this year. But for those of us who have been tracking for a while we can all remember another storm that was supposed to come to South FLA back in 2001 but then died. Her name was Debby. I remember all of the hype and then all of a sudden, Poof, she was gone into Cuba. This could be Debby all over again.
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#263 Postby tronbunny » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:13 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:yep, the hype over this storm is slowly dying down over the tv channels, thank god :). Aside from heavy rain, that should be about it....Hopefully it will move quick enough and the convection will die down to prevent any flooding type rains.


Honestly, I will be very disappointed if Ernie turns into a non-event for FL.
We can use the rain, here.
Just don't like those nasty winds and tornadoes.

:rain:
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#264 Postby gtalum » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:14 pm

I think we're (Florida, that is!) going to get the rain, whether or not we get the destructive winds. Let's hope for justthe rain.
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#265 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:15 pm

tronbunny wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:yep, the hype over this storm is slowly dying down over the tv channels, thank god :). Aside from heavy rain, that should be about it....Hopefully it will move quick enough and the convection will die down to prevent any flooding type rains.


Honestly, I will be very disappointed if Ernie turns into a non-event for FL.
We can use the rain, here.
Just don't like those nasty winds and tornadoes.

:rain:


im the opposite..our yard is mushy and the trees havent moved since our last rain..last night
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#266 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:15 pm

gtalum wrote:I think we're (Florida, that is!) going to get the rain, whether or not we get the destructive winds. Let's hope for justthe rain.


At this rate I don't even know if we'll get rain. Oh well, its nice that the school district cancelled classes. Vacation day tomorrow 8-) .
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#267 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:17 pm

Scorpion wrote:
gtalum wrote:I think we're (Florida, that is!) going to get the rain, whether or not we get the destructive winds. Let's hope for justthe rain.


At this rate I don't even know if we'll get rain. Oh well, its nice that the school district cancelled classes. Vacation day tomorrow 8-) .


lucky...i wish they cancelled school here.
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#268 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:18 pm

Scorpion wrote:
At this rate I don't even know if we'll get rain. Oh well, its nice that the school district cancelled classes. Vacation day tomorrow 8-) .


I'm beginning to think the same thing - about the rain threat, that is. But I wouldn't give up on Ernesto yet. Wind threat looking minimal for Florida, though.
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#269 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:18 pm

Tonight is make or break for Ernie... i'm about to call it a night, and not sure what we will wake up to. Tonight's diurnal cycle could bring him back to life, but if not, i think it's over.

Who knows... maybe we wake up to a big fat CDO... maybe we wake up to a cluster of nothing...

good night.
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#270 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:18 pm

Those "mid-level" circulations take about 10 seconds to reach back down to the surface over the Straits.

Ye of little faith.
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#271 Postby tallywx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:18 pm

This doesn't bode well for our NC rain prospects. Well, I guess the high pressure and continental trough will have to create the CAD and uplift on its own.
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#272 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:19 pm

its probably not moving off till it gets to 22.5 north 79 west or about when the coast of cuba stops moving wnw/nw and bends to the west but knowing ernesto he may bend west at 270 degrees he is one happy tourist

steve lyons just said a big part of the broad circulation is over water and the upper levels of the system are in good shape but the LLC is ragged and needs to get over water, which it will not due till it hits that bend in cuba around 22.5 79 at about 4-7 am. then its got about 11-14 hours to party

with ernesto he likes to be humiliated beaten up and when even most of his die hard optomists right him off in the wee hours, i wouldn't be surprised to watch him deliver a sucker punch
Last edited by cpdaman on Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#273 Postby jpigott » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:20 pm

anybody have the link to that cuban radar
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#274 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:20 pm

22.5 and 79? thats parallel with Miami just about....
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#275 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:20 pm

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#276 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:You can't tell if there's any LLC at all now, much less if it's over land or water. What you're watching is a convective burst to the southeast of the upper low that's retreating westward through the FL Straits. Wind shear has ripped Ernesto to shreads over the past 24 hours, but it still could regenerate an LLC. The wind threat to south Florida is looking like less of an issue. But if Ernesto does survive the night, which it has a good chance of doing, then it will likely track north up the FL peninsula and give them a good bit of rain.

The farther it goes west, the less chance it'll move off the east coast of FL and regenerate off the Carolinas, too. So maybe good news for everyone across the southeast U.S. Rain without much wind is better than a hurricane.


I really respect and appreciate you contributions to the boards.

I agree with your assessment. I just saw a set of t numbers at 3.0. I'm no expert on Dvorak, but that seems really, really high for the (lack of) organization in satellite. Your thoughts?
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what are the chances for it to survive--

#277 Postby emeraldislencguy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:21 pm

would like to hear some opinions about the future of this storm or lack of a storm
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#278 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:21 pm

T3.0? sure that was for this system, lol? That's VERY high.
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#279 Postby jpigott » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:22 pm

Stormavoider - thanks
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#280 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:22 pm

I personally think it is still a tropical storm and recently has resumed a more NW movement. To go from 40mph storm to a 70mph or 75mph CAT 1 is not difficult where it will be going...

I think Ernie is still very much alive.
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