Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

067
SXXX50 KNHC 282359
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 45 KNHC
2350 2157N 07727W 00305 5030 125 019 224 224 019 00286 0000000000
2350. 2158N 07729W 00303 5030 114 019 224 224 022 00283 0000000000
2351 2200N 07730W 00306 5030 095 018 230 230 019 00287 0000000000
2351. 2201N 07731W 00304 5029 086 021 230 230 022 00285 0000000000
2352 2202N 07732W 00306 5028 079 023 228 228 023 00288 0000000000
2352. 2204N 07733W 00388 5024 077 022 224 224 023 00376 0000000000
2353 2205N 07734W 00585 5019 080 024 210 210 024 00588 0000000000
2353. 2207N 07734W 00807 0002 088 026 198 198 026 00830 0000000000
2354 2208N 07734W 01036 0018 077 025 190 190 025 01078 0000000000
2354. 2210N 07735W 01270 0029 079 026 178 178 027 01334 0000000000
2355 2211N 07735W 01469 0043 077 028 172 172 030 01547 0000000000
2355. 2213N 07737W 01522 0047 078 030 168 168 031 01605 0000000000
2356 2214N 07738W 01524 0048 073 031 160 160 032 01607 0000000000
2356. 2215N 07739W 01524 0048 063 032 158 158 033 01608 0000000000
2357 2216N 07741W 01532 0049 065 033 168 168 036 01617 0000000000
2357. 2217N 07742W 01698 0061 064 033 162 162 035 01795 0000000000
2358 2219N 07743W 01962 0079 067 031 142 142 032 02077 0000000000
2358. 2220N 07745W 02252 0097 071 030 136 128 031 02389 0000000000
2359 2221N 07746W 02548 0115 066 028 122 094 031 02704 0000000000
2359. 2223N 07747W 02844 0135 058 028 110 060 029 03021 0000000000
;


Looks like the plane is rising in altitude and leaving.

[Thunder44]

844
SXXX50 KNHC 290020
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 47 KNHC
0010 2246N 07824W 06978 0394 040 015 137 261 016 07397 0000000000
0010. 2247N 07826W 07118 0404 037 016 149 299 016 07547 0000000000
0011 2248N 07829W 07246 0413 039 016 159 327 016 07685 0000000000
0011. 2248N 07831W 07310 0419 041 015 165 293 016 07755 0000000000
0012 2249N 07834W 07319 0422 042 014 167 167 015 07767 0000000100
0012. 2250N 07836W 07316 0424 043 016 167 167 017 07766 0000000100
0013 2251N 07839W 07316 0426 041 017 171 171 017 07767 0000000100
0013. 2251N 07842W 07313 0427 039 018 171 171 019 07765 0000000100
0014 2252N 07844W 07315 0429 035 018 173 173 019 07770 0000000100
0014. 2253N 07847W 07314 0430 030 018 171 171 019 07769 0000000000
001M''WFg

Plane ascending above operational altitude. The mission is over.

[gotoman38]

When is the next mission? It seems this one is over.

[Brent]

When is the next mission? It seems this one is over.

10:45pm departure for a 2am fix.

[Brent]

Ernesto continues to do itself disfavors. 8 p.m. position is FARTHER inland that 5 p.m.

Please everybody . . . stop . . . think . . . post.

09 GMT 08/28/06 19.6N 75.4W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/28/06 20.3N 75.7W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/28/06 21.3N 76.9W 40 1007 Tropical Storm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

At 0 GMT it was at 21.4 N 77.4 W.

[JonathanBelles]

[quote="Brent]

10:45pm departure for a 2am fix.[/quote]

when do they shift back to biloxi?

[Thunder44]

The flights may be somewhat off schedule as long Ernesto remains over Cuba.

[craptacular]

when do they shift back to biloxi?

Well, I noticed that AF309, which conducted the last recon flight and had taken off from the Caribbean, was just now about home to Mississippi.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to a TD at 11 is my take.

[mf_dolphin]

I'll take that bet Luis

[Scorpion]

Imagine that...TD Ernesto. All that hype for nothing.

[gatorcane]

Imagine that...TD Ernesto. All that hype for nothing.

Please I urge you not to write him off, the NW turn is happening now it looks like and he'll be back over water soon enough.....

[bombarderoazul]

I am hoping for TD Ernesto.

[cycloneye]

I am hoping for TD Ernesto.

I think you are not alone in that thinking.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL OVER CUBA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR INLAND
OVER CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 320 MILES ...515 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 77.8W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 77.8W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 79.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.4N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.0N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 45SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 78.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 39.0N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THROUGH 00Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WAS STILL INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS FROM THE FLIGHT JUST
OFFSHORE WERE 46 KT ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY 37 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA...ERNESTO WILL BE HELD AT MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS
INLAND...AND SINCE THAT TIME...CUBAN RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM CAMAGUAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE RADAR
DATA SHOW A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
ERNESTO...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR ANDROS APPEARS
TO BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR
THE ANEMIC CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING ERNESTO UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY
SHEAR. THIS WOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE CENTER
CLEARS THE COASTS...BUT THE UPPER WINDS WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AND REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...THE
LIKLIHOOD OF THIS IS DIMINISHING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
DROPSONDE AND RAOB DATA FROM 00Z INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL AT 80-81W...STILL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S LONGITUDE. THIS
COULD MEAN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE
OFFING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.7N 77.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 23.0N 79.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 26.4N 80.9W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.0W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0000Z 33.0N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z 36.5N 78.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0000Z 39.0N 77.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[flyingphish]

TD.. as in truly dead. I thought this system would have been history about 12 hours ago. Well, it still has a small chance for some fireworks, but that tracker (possible Florence) in the E. Atlantic has me a little more concerned at this point. Good news is, Ernie did not take many lives. I have heard of one life loss in Haiti so far.

[miamicanes177]

I think they are on the runway

[WindRunner]

Actually, just took off.

SXXX50 KNHC 290300
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 01 KNHC
0250. 3024N 08855W 00001 5012 360 000 298 236 000 00000 0000000000
0251 3025N 08855W 00001 5012 360 000 296 236 000 00000 0000000000
0251. 3025N 08855W 00001 5012 360 000 296 234 000 00000 0000000000
0252 3025N 08855W 00000 5012 360 000 296 236 000 00000 0000000000
0252. 3025N 08855W 00000 5011 360 000 296 238 000 00000 0000000000
0253 3025N 08855W 00001 5012 360 000 292 236 000 00000 0000000000
0253. 3025N 08855W 00000 5011 360 000 294 236 000 00000 0000000000
0254 3025N 08855W 00000 5011 360 000 296 234 000 00000 0000000000
0254. 3025N 08855W 00000 5011 360 000 296 236 000 00000 0000000000
0255 3025N 08855W 00000 5011 360 000 296 236 000 00000 0000000000
0255. 3025N 08855W 00000 5010 360 000 296 236 000 00000 0000000000
0256 3025N 08855W 00000 5010 360 000 296 232 000 00000 0000000000
0256. 3025N 08855W 00000 5010 360 000 296 226 000 00000 0000000000
0257 3025N 08855W 00000 5011 360 000 296 224 000 00000 0000000000
0257. 3025N 08855W 00000 5011 360 000 296 230 000 00000 0000000000
0258 3025N 08855W 00002 5013 239 001 296 236 002 00000 0000000000
0258. 3025N 08856W 00017 5015 248 005 296 248 009 00013 0000000000
0259 3024N 08856W 00150 0002 239 010 286 248 010 00163 0000000000
0259. 3022N 08857W 00268 0016 251 010 272 240 010 00295 0000000000
0300 3021N 08858W 00282 0020 256 010 270 238 010 00313 0000000000

And no, I am not posting data, just answering miami's thought.

[WindRunner]

New mission just took off, AF306 out of Biloxi. Have fun tonight . . . may or may not be intersting . . .