TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

Scorpion · #321 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:and a more westward track....Ernesto has some mind of his own

Yea.. a mind of its own to commit suicide.

HurricaneHunter914 · #322 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:10 pm

The mountains aren't as high in that area I beleive. Ernesto for some reason doesn't want to leave Cuba.

#323 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:10 pm

As I suspected, a slight westward track adjustment. FL winds of 37 kts = a TD, but they can't downgrade it now or people in Florida will ignore it. Could be a very dangerous heavy rain event if it holds together enough. Wind won't be much of a problem inland, though.

Good night, all!

Wx_Warrior · #324 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:10 pm

not good for Ernie unless he can move more NNW than WNW....year of the shear said pro met earlier today...

#325 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:11 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:The mountains aren't as high in that area I beleive. Ernesto for some reason doesn't want to leave Cuba.

Ernesto has smoked too many Cuban cigars when he should have been gulping down some water!

I am resting alot easier tonight. Back to my MBA classes.

gtalum · #326 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:11 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Ernesto for some reason doesn't want to leave Cuba.

He must like good cigars! :lol:

HurricaneHunter914 · #327 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:12 pm

Or he's trying to kill Fidel Castaro. :lol:

#328 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:12 pm

ok, i expect landfall to be at aropund 60-75 MPH now, Tommarow night at 10 PM. i cant believe i have to go to school tommarow! i go to a private school in Broward County.

Scorpion · #329 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:13 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:ok, i expect landfall to be at aropund 60-75 MPH now, Tommarow night at 10 PM. i cant believe i have to go to school tommarow! i go to a private school in Broward County.

Lol really? All of PBC cancelled classes. I was quite surprised, as they usually are really conservative about that.

cpdaman · #330 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:13 pm

shear will increase as ernie meister moves wnw/nw he will get over water at 22. 5 79 or around 6 am. he will be a joke at that time and were lucky (SE FL)

becuse this westard track will keep him over the water longer and away from the south florida coast likely going thru the lower keys then into the extreme east GOM where he should party tomorrow nite before hitting TAMPA imo WED morning could be a decent storm by then

#331 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:15 pm

cpdaman wrote:shear will increase as ernie meister moves wnw/nw he will get over water at 22. 5 79 or around 6 am. he will be a joke at that time and were lucky (SE FL)

becuse this westard track will keep him over the water longer and away from the south florida coast likely going thru the lower keys then into the extreme east GOM where he should party tomorrow nite before hitting TAMPA imo WED morning could be a decent storm by then

interesting at first you had me thinking Ernesto was dead but now saying a more decent storm into Tampa???? :eek:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #332 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:15 pm

It would not blow me away if this system moved west-northwest for the next day. Because models love to weaken these highs...The people that forecasted it to go through the keys maybe right after all. If it gets on the other side of florida. It will have much time to strengthen. Just pointing that out as a possible right now.

#333 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:15 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:ok, i expect landfall to be at aropund 60-75 MPH now, Tommarow night at 10 PM. i cant believe i have to go to school tommarow! i go to a private school in Broward County.

Lol really? All of PBC cancelled classes. I was quite surprised, as they usually are really conservative about that.

My school is called "The North Broward Prepatory Schools", its a great school, but they said the only way school would go out is if we had a Hurricane Warning!

#334 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:and better yet, we can thank yet ANOTHER ULL for potentially killing this system all together (and land of course)

Year of the Shear continues. Alot of Upper Low's this year.

#335 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:16 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It would not blow me away if this system moved west-northwest for the next day. Because models love to weaken these highs...The people that forecasted it to go through the keys maybe right after all. If it gets on the other side of florida. It will have much time to strengthen. Just pointing that out as a possible right now.

Just remember the GFDL and AVNS models 2-3 days ago called for this NW movement up into Cuba and then a turn WNW through Cuba or just north (exactly what it is doing now) and then a gradual turn to the NW and then N over the eastern GOM....

So far the GFDL has been an excellent model this year.

jpigott · #336 Postby **jpigott** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:16 pm

latest IR image shows the storm really drying out, there are still a couple of decent convective areas, one to the immediate NW of the center, another band off to the NE and a ball of convection to the SE

#337 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:17 pm

i don't like this. i should be at ease since Ernest has weakened so much, but i am still nervy.

tonite the moon was dark red. a real creepy dark red crescent like I have never seen here.

i see at the end of the discussion that the high hasn't moved over yet. i also saw that teh coming trough seemed to be moving slower than I would have expected if it is to accomplish that NE push in direction for Ernesto.

those waters are very very warm. if there is anything at all left of Ernesto, it will regenerate. based on what tehy said about the high, if he stays in the straits, and continues to the outer periphery before heading more NW and N, he may be able to round the tip of Florida and be a West Coast storm afterall. IF that happens, he will also have much more time over the water to regenerate further.

i am not willing to totally let my guard down yet.

and to add to my trepidation, i was flipping channels just in time to catch teh channel 13 "VIPIR" track that showed it coming for a Tampa bee-line! WTF?!

i think tomorrow will be a long long long day.

Loring · #338 Postby **Loring** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:17 pm

would it be safe to say that if E swings west of florida intot he GOM, that itll regain cat1+ status?

stormtruth · #339 Postby **stormtruth** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:21 pm

Loring wrote:would it be safe to say that if E swings west of florida intot he GOM, that itll regain cat1+ status?

Anything seems possible. But no one seems to have a very good idea of where Ernesto is going. Once he does get back in the water and if he is still alive he could spin up again into a strong TS or weak Cat1.

#340 Postby **fci** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:21 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:ok, i expect landfall to be at aropund 60-75 MPH now, Tommarow night at 10 PM. i cant believe i have to go to school tommarow! i go to a private school in Broward County.

Evil:
There goes your hot streak.
Or was it even a hot streak as you crowed about being right about the storm hitting So Fla and now it may never get here.
Certainly not to get near you in Miami with 60-75 MPH wind!
You are better off going to school tomorrow!

Don't worry public schools in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach will follow suit and be back in class on Wednesday at this point.

It was an exciting drill we all got to go through on Ernesto but Fidel had other plans for him!!!

Next one, and there will probably BE a next one; may not be so much fun....

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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