Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

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whereverwx
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#141 Postby whereverwx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:12 pm

WindRunner wrote:Thought you guys might like to see this . . . if you want to save it though, do it quick as the link may not last that much longer.

250m MODIS image

EDIT: since I've posted they've already put up a new image that only has half the storm in it . . . anyway, just watch the link. They might have another pass between 01Z and 02Z tonight, as they did the same two-pass thing last night.

Wow! Very cool; thanks for sharing!

Image
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#142 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:33 pm

Truely an incredible storm. How long has it been out there? I can't even remember....
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#143 Postby bostonseminole » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:35 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 174.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 174.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.5N 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.2N 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.2N 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.2N 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.3N 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.9N 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.5N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 173.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
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#144 Postby RattleMan » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:36 pm

Scorpion wrote:Truely an incredible storm. How long has it been out there? I can't even remember....


91C.INVEST was tagged around 19Z on the 16th.
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#145 Postby bostonseminole » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:37 pm

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 00:00 UTC 29 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 16.1N 174.3E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH

FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 17.0N 171.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 310000UTC 18.4N 167.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 010000UTC 20.3N 164.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
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#146 Postby WindRunner » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:45 pm

And that's a downgrade there, and probably appropriately so, if not a little on the late side. I am laughing at the JMA for not really wanting to forecast this one and just maintaining intensity throughout the period - but then again JTWC is just trying too hard to call every little move . . .
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#147 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:59 pm

The dewpoint in the eye has dropped considerably in the past few hours, and it has cleared out some. I think this is a lower-end 5, but that's just my opinion.

September 1 represents the start of the Super Season - with any luck, we might see a few more super typhoons like Ioke. These storms are just the most powerful and awesome storms you'll ever find on earth.

BTW, I have zoomed-out images every hour since Ioke was born. I think I can make a loop out of them. PM me if you're interested. :wink:
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#148 Postby Windspeed » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:53 pm

The last published run of the GFDL for Ioke around 2700z is almost dead on w/ respect to its present location point for 2800z (16.1N, 73.9W). According to microwave imagery, the storm completed an EWRC just before 2812z, and visible imagery has shown Ioke has taken the time since then to fully clear the old thunderstorm debris from the old eyewall. In the last few hours, dewpoints are bottoming and with the current structure, it is clear that Ioke is intensifying again.

Interesting, it was around this time that the GFDL really started to bottom out Ioke, taking it sub 900mb all the way to 860mb before reaching Wake Island with 35m wind intensities around 180kts. I have never seen the GFDL intensify a storm to this magnitude. Such intensity may never be met by this storm; however, I find much interest in the possibility that if this storm is going to reach such a feat, it would need the current structure it has right at this moment. Given the storm's current structure and satellite appearance, I believe Ioke is near 150kts. It is moving over oceanic heat content that has a 26C isotherm at a depth between 80 and 100 meters. The maximum potential of this storm is even better than Wilma in the NW Caribbean last year. I certainly would not put it past this storm to be a potential record breaker. Unfortanately, we only have dvorak estimates for pressure. If the storm can keep such a structure and intensity over Wake Island, there may be some pressure measurements at the weather station they have there. The downside is that such a facility may be completely rendered useless before the core can even get there. In conclusion, even if Ioke reaches never-before seen pressures and windspeeds as forecasted by the GFDL, we'll never know.
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#149 Postby btangy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:57 pm

Perhaps this has been asked already, but what is the longest living TC at Cat 4 strength or higher (I remember the CPHC mentioning something about this before the Ioke crossed the dateline)? My guess it would also be in the W Pacific. I could probably look through the data myself, but perhaps if someone has already gone through the trouble of doing so, it would save me some time.
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#150 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:04 am

Btangy,
We are trying to figure out that conundrum here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88948

Windspeed,
I agree with you. The Dvorak estimates were before the eye cleared and now it's looking better than ever.

This is a nice image: Link
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#151 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:11 am

150+ knots plus!
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#152 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:12 am

That looks way better then Katrina wow wow wow!!! One of the best I'v seen.
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#153 Postby WxGuy1 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:37 am

On the latest WV MODIS image, you can see some sort of intrusion into the eye -- look HERE
Image

For any who are interested, here's the 250m resolution visible image of Ioke, showing the eye with awesome detail: HERE
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#154 Postby Windspeed » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:58 am

WxGuy1 wrote:On the latest WV MODIS image, you can see some sort of intrusion into the eye -- look


That's not an intrusion, there is just a tiny bit of cloud remnants left over from the last EWRC riding around the inside of the wall. If you will notice the latest visible imagery, this thing is just stunning:

0500z GOES 11

Ok, I must go fall over now. I've been up way too long watching this monster take off. G'nite :)
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#155 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:37 am

Wow.

That is all I can say. Im am certain thats is probablt sub 900
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#156 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:38 am

I say 890 millibars with 150 knots. This typhoon easly beats katrina.
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#157 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:35 am

Hopefully they get into the eye so we can get that info. I would not be suprized if they got 150 knot winds with 890 millibars.
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#158 Postby bostonseminole » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:39 am

is there web sites that show data from Wake Island?
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#159 Postby Dave C » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:04 am

Here's the link for Wake Island, unfortanately they don't report every hr.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PWAK.html
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#160 Postby bostonseminole » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:13 am

WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.8N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.5N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.4N 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.6N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.8N 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.5N 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.1N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 173.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
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