TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

#421 Postby **Toadstool** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:02 am

tailgater wrote:Well Ernesto is very weak at this time, but on radar the low center looks to be heading west and there is some banding still evident on the eastern and southern( in Caribbean waters) edges but I don't think there will be any rapid intensifying when it does reemerge heading north maybe to Fort Myers. 50 mph TS

Yes, definitely seems like it is tracking further west (for the first time).

Thunder44 · #422 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:05 am

Here is the 2AM NHC position. It should be moving offshore in the next few hours:

#423 Postby **fci** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:09 am

Thunder44 wrote:Here is the 2AM NHC position. It should be moving offshore in the next few hours:

Maybe this time it will move offshore because we have been saying it now for over 12 hours!!!

Thunder44 · #424 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:13 am

fci wrote:Here is the 2AM NHC position. It should be moving offshore in the next few hours:

Maybe this time it will move offshore because we have been saying it now for over 12 hours!!!

Actually I plotted there it appears to be just off the mainland, around the coral reef

Droop12 · #425 Postby **Droop12** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:16 am

The center is over so islands along the coast. So he's sorta half on and half off. IMO, it'll only take one good blowup of convection and Ernie we'll be back. His center is remarkably intact according to Cuban radar. JMO

#426 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:43 am

I still think the center is fully on land and south of the 2am adv coords.

#427 Postby **Jevo** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:47 am

deltadog03 wrote:I still think the center is fully on land and south of the 2am adv coords.

why......????? what do you see that we are missing.. JMO but the center is now just about offshore according to NHC estimates

#428 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:49 am

jevo look at the recon page with the icons...IF** the center was at the 2am coord then recon would have gotten a VDM right? I mean that plane icon flew right over that coord.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #429 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:52 am

If your right then I will say that this is as dead as a door nail. Because all the convection is way north of it.

Cyclenall · #430 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:53 am

New % chance that Hurricane Ernesto (now TS) will become a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100% (it already did)
Category 2 Hurricane: 10%
Category 3 Hurricane: 3%
Category 4 Hurricane: 1%
Category 5 Hurricane: Almost 0%

First % chance that Hurricane Ernesto (now TS) will become a:

Tropical Depression again: 100%
Tropical Storm again: 100%
Hurricane again: 47%

Website · #431 Postby **FritzPaul** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:57 am

I haven't been around all evening. Has there been any more talk of Ernie downgrading to a wave, and then getting pushed west into the GOM?

Sounds crazy...I guess....but I read that in another thread Mon afternoon.

Paul

PS Please don't flame the messenger!

PSS I hope Ernie continues to weaken for FL peninsula sake.
I still do not have electricity! FEMA delivered a trailer, but
since there isn't any power, the trailer is just taking up space. :grrr:

Vandora · #432 Postby **Vandora** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:58 am

Cyclenall - is that something you got from somewhere official, or is that something you're saying, personally? I can never figure that out when people post percentages.

Cyclenall · #433 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:01 am

Vandora wrote:Cyclenall - is that something you got from somewhere official, or is that something you're saying, personally? I can never figure that out when people post percentages.

It's all my opinion. It's never from any official source or software.

Those numbers are based from the NHC. That means if the NHC is almost totally right about Ernesto from now on, this is the %'s i'm giving.

Has there been any more talk of Ernie downgrading to a wave, and then getting pushed west into the GOM?

I would also like to know more information about this.[/quote]

Normandy · #434 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:02 am

We got some more radar help now, as Ernesto is now visible on Long Range MIA radar, although from that far out you cannot see the LLC.

But what you can see, is def moving wnw.

Vandora · #435 Postby **Vandora** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:02 am

Thanks! I thought so, but I wasn't sure.

#436 Postby **Jevo** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:03 am

deltadog03 wrote:jevo look at the recon page with the icons...IF** the center was at the 2am coord then recon would have gotten a VDM right? I mean that plane icon flew right over that coord.

Dr. Masters on Radio NHCWX tonight stated that when he flew as a Hurricane hunter, there were very specific flight rules regarding Cuba.. One being that the recon flights must maintain a 20 mile buffer zone between them and Cuban coastline. With that in mind there is no possibility that with the storm half off the coast at that time that they would be able to get a fix.

superfly · #437 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:11 am

Still no westerly winds from recon obs.

StrongWind · #438 Postby **StrongWind** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:12 am

Looks like we're out of the eclipse. 6:15UTC water vapor has good convection flaring up east of the supposed center and it looks like Ernie is trying to wrap some moisture around on the west.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #439 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:15 am

superfly wrote:Still no westerly winds from recon obs.

Thunder44 · #440 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:21 am

Normandy wrote:We got some more radar help now, as Ernesto is now visible on Long Range MIA radar, although from that far out you cannot see the LLC.

But what you can see, is def moving wnw.

I think the plane is trying to close off that center on radar now.

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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