TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5
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- SouthFLTropics
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I'm just going by what the update says...They must have gotten that data from Recon. I don't recall seeing a VDM though.
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
SouthFLTropics wrote:I'm just going by what the update says...They must have gotten that data from Recon. I don't recall seeing a VDM though.
The LLC is reforming offshore where they position it. There is no VDM yet because recon hasn't completely closed it off yet. But they are getting close, they found some NNW winds and SSW winds.
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- johngaltfla
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- johngaltfla
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Some of the hurricane models are now taking it to 83 west now. If it gets to that point it may have alot more time over water...
That's what I noticed. Now the models won't help too much, IMHO. If it gets a full 24 over the open waters of the Gulf, I'll say what Steve Lyons said last night:
All bets are off.

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The lowest 5,000 feet of the Atmosphere there looks to be a weakness...With now two highs one over the gulf in once cetnered around 70 west...But as you go up thorugh 500 milibars this then has a bridge between the two. In as you go to 300 millibars this is still a very strong high. So the stronger this system gets the more westward it may go.
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As far as I can see from shortwave loops the LLC isn't "redeveloping" but is instead emerging offshore just over water by Caibarien. The CDO has finally taken a single consolidation over the Straits.
If the LLC is where I'm seeing it we are most likely seeing a track shift back to the west coast of Florida and right towards us.
The perfect overhead that was predicted must not be there since the CDO is reflected to the NE meaning there is shear impacting Ernesto from the SW.
I expect the CDO to keep growing as the center gets over the hot SST's in the Gulf Stream which it really hasn't tapped yet. Don't be surprised to see red IR bursts all day. What we really need is a visible satellite loop to confirm the LLC position.
We could have a Florida Straits burster headed right for us on Sanibel in a Donna-like hook.
Ernesto's exact LLC is not quite yet on either Miami or Key West long range radars. It should come into view in a few hours.
If the LLC is where I'm seeing it we are most likely seeing a track shift back to the west coast of Florida and right towards us.
The perfect overhead that was predicted must not be there since the CDO is reflected to the NE meaning there is shear impacting Ernesto from the SW.
I expect the CDO to keep growing as the center gets over the hot SST's in the Gulf Stream which it really hasn't tapped yet. Don't be surprised to see red IR bursts all day. What we really need is a visible satellite loop to confirm the LLC position.
We could have a Florida Straits burster headed right for us on Sanibel in a Donna-like hook.
Ernesto's exact LLC is not quite yet on either Miami or Key West long range radars. It should come into view in a few hours.
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- johngaltfla
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Matt, that's why last night I was discussing the historical track of Donna. I just don't see this storm suddenly shifting almost due North in the next 12 hours to follow the NHC "black line" path. I'm leaning more towards a solution with it hooking out towards Key West then following the periphery of the high and turning towards the West coast tommorrow afternoon.
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That would keep it over water longer for strengthening.
What we really need here is an exact location of the LLC.
Long range radar should pick that up in a few hours.
The quick movement should bring Ernesto to Florida later today and tonight.
And Matt, I think you have that backwards and a strong storm gets taken by the mid-upper steering influences of the ridge while a shallow storm gets carried by the tropical easterlies.
What we really need here is an exact location of the LLC.
Long range radar should pick that up in a few hours.
The quick movement should bring Ernesto to Florida later today and tonight.
And Matt, I think you have that backwards and a strong storm gets taken by the mid-upper steering influences of the ridge while a shallow storm gets carried by the tropical easterlies.
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- johngaltfla
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Sanibel wrote:That would keep it over water longer for strengthening.
What we really need here is an exact location of the LLC.
Long range radar should pick that up in a few hours.
The quick movement should bring Ernesto to Florida later today and tonight.
Recon should have it soon. The storm appears offshore now and with the banding developing, that should allow the outflow channels to expand and the center to become more visible. The key will be how far west he goes before turning now. Like I said, 80-81 West is the key. It doesn't have far to go before crossing those lines...
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- hurricanedude
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Sanibel wrote:That would keep it over water longer for strengthening.
What we really need here is an exact location of the LLC.
Long range radar should pick that up in a few hours.
The quick movement should bring Ernesto to Florida later today and tonight.
And Matt, I think you have that backwards and a strong storm gets taken by the mid-upper steering influences of the ridge while a shallow storm gets carried by the tropical easterlies.
Let me tell you this much, if the path pans out.. you REALLY gotta tip your hat to NHC.... they will actually have been spot on with this track. I woke up expecting to see a wave, and what do I see? A stronger storm!

What's your expected landfall speed for FL Sanibel?
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- hurricanedude
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If it gets to 83 west in moves up the west coast of Florida. With the right quad of the weakness possible cat2. About 100 to 110 mph running the coast. If the system fellows the nhc track maybe 75-80 mph. If you went to know how strong.
I would say with the development
75 mph landfall if it falls the nhc track
If it gets lucky in makes it to the west coast
90 mph
I would say with the development
75 mph landfall if it falls the nhc track
If it gets lucky in makes it to the west coast
90 mph
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