TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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SouthFLTropics
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#461 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:41 am

I'm just going by what the update says...They must have gotten that data from Recon. I don't recall seeing a VDM though.
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#462 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:42 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:I'm just going by what the update says...They must have gotten that data from Recon. I don't recall seeing a VDM though.


The LLC is reforming offshore where they position it. There is no VDM yet because recon hasn't completely closed it off yet. But they are getting close, they found some NNW winds and SSW winds.
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#463 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:44 am

If we see this storm cross 81 degrees west before heading NNW then N, look for some major corrections in the path and new warnings to be issued. Ernie's looking good this morning...
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#464 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:48 am

Some of the hurricane models are now taking it to 83 west now. If it gets to that point it may have alot more time over water...
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#465 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:49 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Some of the hurricane models are now taking it to 83 west now. If it gets to that point it may have alot more time over water...


That's what I noticed. Now the models won't help too much, IMHO. If it gets a full 24 over the open waters of the Gulf, I'll say what Steve Lyons said last night:

All bets are off. :eek:
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#466 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:54 am

bostonseminole wrote:Does not look NW to me..


There really is no movement yet. The LLC is just developing offshore of Cuba. It's just the distance of positions TPC had between their 2am and 5am advisories.
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#467 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:03 am

Ernesto's just emerging offshore.
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#468 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:03 am

The lowest 5,000 feet of the Atmosphere there looks to be a weakness...With now two highs one over the gulf in once cetnered around 70 west...But as you go up thorugh 500 milibars this then has a bridge between the two. In as you go to 300 millibars this is still a very strong high. So the stronger this system gets the more westward it may go.
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#469 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:05 am

As far as I can see from shortwave loops the LLC isn't "redeveloping" but is instead emerging offshore just over water by Caibarien. The CDO has finally taken a single consolidation over the Straits.

If the LLC is where I'm seeing it we are most likely seeing a track shift back to the west coast of Florida and right towards us.

The perfect overhead that was predicted must not be there since the CDO is reflected to the NE meaning there is shear impacting Ernesto from the SW.

I expect the CDO to keep growing as the center gets over the hot SST's in the Gulf Stream which it really hasn't tapped yet. Don't be surprised to see red IR bursts all day. What we really need is a visible satellite loop to confirm the LLC position.

We could have a Florida Straits burster headed right for us on Sanibel in a Donna-like hook.

Ernesto's exact LLC is not quite yet on either Miami or Key West long range radars. It should come into view in a few hours.
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#470 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:11 am

OK. Now I see the advisories still take it to the central or eastern Keys.

Maybe the LLC IS further into the CDO?

In any case it is going to take a big turn north in the next few hours in order to make that track. It won't have much time to develop into a hurricane.
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#471 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:14 am

If it deepens fast into a hurricane it will not take the nhc track. The deeper the system the more westward by steering maps.
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#472 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:18 am

Matt, that's why last night I was discussing the historical track of Donna. I just don't see this storm suddenly shifting almost due North in the next 12 hours to follow the NHC "black line" path. I'm leaning more towards a solution with it hooking out towards Key West then following the periphery of the high and turning towards the West coast tommorrow afternoon.
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#473 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:20 am

That would keep it over water longer for strengthening.


What we really need here is an exact location of the LLC.


Long range radar should pick that up in a few hours.

The quick movement should bring Ernesto to Florida later today and tonight.

And Matt, I think you have that backwards and a strong storm gets taken by the mid-upper steering influences of the ridge while a shallow storm gets carried by the tropical easterlies.
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#474 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:22 am

Sanibel wrote:That would keep it over water longer for strengthening.


What we really need here is an exact location of the LLC.


Long range radar should pick that up in a few hours.

The quick movement should bring Ernesto to Florida later today and tonight.


Recon should have it soon. The storm appears offshore now and with the banding developing, that should allow the outflow channels to expand and the center to become more visible. The key will be how far west he goes before turning now. Like I said, 80-81 West is the key. It doesn't have far to go before crossing those lines...
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#475 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:24 am

No I was looking at cimss steering levels. The 500 or below clearly shown the high stronger....With a brake/weakness forming at 80 west at 850 milibars.
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#476 Postby Damar91 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:25 am

John or Matt, just how strong can this get in the limited amount of time?
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#477 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:27 am

I have seen storms go from ts to cat 4 in 24 hours...so u figure the math
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#478 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:27 am

Sanibel wrote:That would keep it over water longer for strengthening.


What we really need here is an exact location of the LLC.


Long range radar should pick that up in a few hours.

The quick movement should bring Ernesto to Florida later today and tonight.

And Matt, I think you have that backwards and a strong storm gets taken by the mid-upper steering influences of the ridge while a shallow storm gets carried by the tropical easterlies.


Let me tell you this much, if the path pans out.. you REALLY gotta tip your hat to NHC.... they will actually have been spot on with this track. I woke up expecting to see a wave, and what do I see? A stronger storm! :eek:

What's your expected landfall speed for FL Sanibel?
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#479 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:28 am

Im going 90mph cne at landfall
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#480 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:28 am

If it gets to 83 west in moves up the west coast of Florida. With the right quad of the weakness possible cat2. About 100 to 110 mph running the coast. If the system fellows the nhc track maybe 75-80 mph. If you went to know how strong.

I would say with the development
75 mph landfall if it falls the nhc track
If it gets lucky in makes it to the west coast
90 mph
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