TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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hurricanedude
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#481 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:30 am

still almost 24 hours of water on the NHC track..thats a ton of time for getting stronger in near 90 degree water
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tgenius
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#482 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:30 am

I believe the current track (or even one slightly west) puts SE FL on the "dirty" side of the storm....
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#483 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:31 am

I'm going to create thred #6, mods please lock this! :)
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#484 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:32 am

Looks like we have an interesting morning indeed.... NHC forecast is not much different than 11PM... At this point its anybodys game.... I guess its all relavtive to your view of the storm from where you live to figure out a forecast track..... Thats what makes storms like these fun... I personally am going to back the models and forecasters and call for a shot up Florida's spine as a TS min cat 1 JMHO
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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#485 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:36 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:No I was looking at cimss steering levels. The 500 or below clearly shown the high stronger....With a brake/weakness forming at 80 west at 850 milibars.


Thus, the NW movement probably starting in 12 hours in your opinion or will the weakness not be pronounced enough?
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#486 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:39 am

We will just have to see when theres enough of a weakness to do it. If it stays weak this will likely start feeling it with in the next 3 or 4 hours. If it bombs or go through a IRC then a west-northwest movement is likely through the keys. With time the weakness should grow stronger intill all parts of the Atmosphere takes this northward. So any where from 3 hours form now a more northwest(Really so) or 24 hours from now.
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tgenius
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#487 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:40 am

Thread #6 Matt please, none of the mods are awake. :)
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