Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

where was the 51KT flight level wind that Stacy Stewart mentioned? I don't see it in these obs, or was it in another product

SXXX50 KNHC 290700
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 25 KNHC
0650. 2259N 07749W 01527 0039 139 031 136 136 032 01604 0000000000
0651 2300N 07751W 01528 0039 135 034 136 136 038 01604 0000000000
0651. 2301N 07752W 01527 0038 133 040 136 136 041 01602 0000000000
0652 2302N 07754W 01522 0035 129 039 136 136 040 01594 0000000000
0652. 2304N 07756W 01527 0036 129 044 138 138 050 01600 0000000000
0653 2306N 07756W 01530 0036 134 043 140 140 045 01604 0000000000
0653. 2308N 07756W 01526 0040 128 044 150 150 049 01604 0000000000
0654 2309N 07756W 01526 0040 127 042 146 146 043 01603 0000000000
0654. 2311N 07756W 01526 0039 119 043 138 138 045 01602 0000000000
0655 2313N 07756W 01529 0041 113 040 142 142 042 01607 0000000000
0655. 2315N 07757W 01526 0043 114 037 158 158 038 01606 0000000000
0656 2317N 07757W 01526 0043 117 035 166 162 037 01606 0000000000
0656. 2318N 07757W 01526 0045 114 038 168 158 039 01608 0000000000
0657 2320N 07757W 01527 0045 118 039 166 158 040 01608 0000000000
0657. 2322N 07757W 01527 0045 122 036 166 146 036 01609 0000000000
0658 2324N 07757W 01525 0045 123 036 164 142 036 01607 0000000000
0658. 2326N 07757W 01527 0044 125 037 164 142 038 01609 0000000000
0659 2327N 07758W 01527 0041 130 041 136 136 042 01605 0000000000
0659. 2329N 07758W 01530 0042 115 037 140 140 042 01609 0000000000
0700 2331N 07758W 01524 0047 089 036 146 146 042 01608 0000000000
;

I must have missed this one. It was earlier this morning.

[Thunder44]

SXXX50 KNHC 291120
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 51 KNHC
1110. 2305N 07934W 01528 0035 026 014 154 154 015 01600 0000000000
1111 2304N 07932W 01523 0035 043 012 166 166 013 01595 0000000000
1111. 2303N 07931W 01528 0035 047 013 174 170 014 01601 0000000000
1112 2302N 07930W 01524 0034 054 012 170 170 012 01596 0000000000
1112. 2300N 07929W 01527 0034 049 012 168 168 013 01598 0000000000
1113 2259N 07927W 01527 0034 058 014 172 168 015 01598 0000000000
1113. 2258N 07926W 01525 0034 058 014 176 164 015 01596 0000000000
1114 2257N 07925W 01526 0033 068 011 172 164 012 01596 0000000000
1114. 2256N 07924W 01526 0033 071 011 170 162 011 01596 0000000000
1115 2255N 07922W 01526 0032 062 011 170 160 011 01596 0000000000
1115. 2254N 07921W 01526 0032 059 009 170 162 010 01596 0000000000
1116 2252N 07920W 01524 0031 049 009 172 158 009 01593 0000000000
1116. 2251N 07919W 01526 0031 048 010 176 146 010 01595 0000000000
1117 2250N 07917W 01526 0030 053 010 176 152 010 01594 0000000000
1117. 2249N 07916W 01526 0030 049 009 176 154 009 01593 0000000000
1118 2248N 07915W 01526 0030 047 010 174 152 010 01593 0000000000
1118. 2247N 07914W 01525 0029 051 009 172 158 009 01591 0000000000
1119 2245N 07912W 01527 0029 040 006 174 162 007 01593 0000000000
1119. 2244N 07911W 01527 0030 061 004 172 164 007 01594 0000000000
1120 2243N 07910W 01524 0028 060 005 176 166 010 01590 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 291128
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/11:19:50Z
B. 22 deg 43 min N
079 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 062 deg 020 kt
G. 314 deg 057 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 34 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1305A ERNESTO OB 22
MAX FL WIND 36 KT NE QUAD 10:34:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR
;

[Thunder44]

Correction "1950z" VDM should read 1119z VDM

[Thunder44]

SXXX50 KNHC 291130
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 52 KNHC
1120. 2242N 07908W 01527 0030 189 004 178 162 006 01594 0000000000
1121 2241N 07907W 01525 0029 213 007 180 158 008 01592 0000000000
1121. 2240N 07905W 01526 0029 229 010 178 160 010 01593 0000000000
1122 2239N 07904W 01527 0022 226 010 178 160 011 01586 0000000000
1122. 2239N 07902W 01527 0030 222 011 176 162 012 01595 0000000000
1123 2241N 07902W 01526 0030 188 009 178 156 010 01594 0000000000
1123. 2242N 07903W 01524 0030 168 009 178 158 009 01591 0000000000
1124 2243N 07904W 01527 0031 149 008 176 164 009 01596 0000000000
1124. 2244N 07905W 01647 0036 120 011 170 156 013 01721 0000000000
1125 2246N 07906W 01972 0056 115 012 154 140 014 02067 0000000000
1125. 2247N 07907W 02336 0075 119 008 134 128 009 02455 0000000000
1126 2249N 07908W 02700 0097 142 007 118 108 008 02842 0000000000
1126. 2250N 07909W 03045 0121 125 008 098 092 010 03212 0000000000
1127 2251N 07910W 03382 0147 108 012 074 074 013 03577 0000000000
1127. 2253N 07911W 03702 0171 152 008 060 046 009 03921 0000000000
1128 2254N 07912W 03968 0189 162 005 046 012 006 04207 0000000000
1128. 2256N 07914W 04206 0191 157 007 032 006 008 04461 0000000000
1129 2257N 07915W 04436 0193 163 010 022 001 011 04708 0000000000
1129. 2259N 07916W 04635 0208 152 015 010 013 019 04923 0000000000
1130 2300N 07917W 04779 0231 143 018 001 017 019 05090 0000000000
;

[Thunder44]

The plane is rising in altitude. Mission is over.

[Thunder44]

Air Force plane is leaving but it looks like a NOAA plane is a approaching the center. But I'm going to take a break for while.

389
URNT40 KWBC 291130
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
112100 2331 07949 7499 +0324 052020 +143 +117 049025 033 009
112200 2330 07945 7503 +0320 071016 +145 +106 069019 031 006
112300 2328 07941 7502 +0314 079013 +144 +096 080014 032 007
112400 2327 07938 7498 +0308 070011 +143 +097 076013 034 010
112500 2325 07934 7499 +0311 100010 +148 +089 108012 035 010
112600 2324 07930 7501 +0308 103011 +151 +087 109013 033 007
112700 2322 07926 7501 +0307 088013 +160 +075 093015 029 004
112800 2321 07923 7503 +0310 078018 +159 +095 072020 028 004
112900 2319 07919 7502 +0309 067018 +157 +105 072019 027 005
113000 2317 07915 7499 +0305 050017 +158 +106 058019 028 005

[cycloneye]

018
WTNT35 KNHC 291150
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH OF CUBA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 215 MILES
...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
SQUALLY RAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THESE AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Derek Ortt]

URNT40 KWBC 291220
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
121100 2319 07717 7500 +0378 173030 +135 +103 179033 029 003
121200 2324 07717 7507 +0380 178031 +136 +105 170034 029 002
121300 2328 07717 7507 +0383 179031 +132 +105 180032 029 001
121400 2333 07717 7509 +0386 178028 +133 +099 177029 028 000
121500 2338 07717 7510 +0389 176030 +134 +100 175031 028 000
121600 2342 07717 7507 +0391 170032 +131 +082 168033 032 001
121700 2347 07717 7505 +0389 171033 +131 +084 172034 036 001
121800 2352 07717 7507 +0391 169030 +128 +103 174033 037 005
121900 2356 07718 7506 +0394 159027 +133 +114 165028 028 001
122000 2401 07718 7507 +0396 162029 +133 +107 163029 026 001

URNT40 KWBC 291230
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
122100 2404 07720 7498 +0396 156029 +132 +104 156030 024 000
122200 2402 07724 7503 +0391 155028 +134 +099 156030 024 001
122300 2400 07728 7505 +0386 157031 +134 +097 156031 026 001
122400 2358 07731 7505 +0366 154031 +138 +088 155032 031 003
122500 2355 07735 7507 +0346 158029 +136 +092 156031 999 999
122600 2353 07738 7509 +0339 161027 +139 +093 162029 999 999
122700 2351 07742 7506 +0334 157024 +142 +095 160025 051 004
122800 2349 07746 7506 +0333 155023 +146 +092 157024 069 002
122900 2347 07749 7505 +0338 151028 +145 +090 152032 043 002
123000 2345 07753 7509 +0348 160035 +147 +080 164039 028 001

URNT40 KWBC 291240
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
123100 2342 07757 7509 +0340 168032 +144 +106 161036 031 011
123200 2341 07800 7534 +0343 152030 +133 +122 147036 029 009
123300 2339 07804 7579 +0344 157031 +135 +110 154035 033 004
123400 2337 07808 7586 +0342 157033 +138 +106 153034 033 003
123500 2334 07811 7582 +0340 160034 +141 +088 160035 033 001
123600 2332 07815 7576 +0337 158033 +143 +090 158035 032 000
123700 2330 07819 7575 +0332 158027 +141 +105 156030 031 000
123800 2328 07822 7572 +0329 160024 +143 +112 158027 032 000
123900 2326 07826 7571 +0328 154024 +144 +113 158026 034 001
124000 2324 07829 7574 +0329 150023 +147 +112 151024 035 000

[wjs3]

I just saw that a NOAA plane has taken over. I'll go hunt down how to recode, but are we now looking at surface wind speeds and directions form the SFMR, or are we still looking at flight level obs?

[Bgator]

URNT40 KWBC 291220
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
121100 2319 07717 7500 +0378 173030 +135 +103 179033 029 003
121200 2324 07717 7507 +0380 178031 +136 +105 170034 029 002
121300 2328 07717 7507 +0383 179031 +132 +105 180032 029 001
121400 2333 07717 7509 +0386 178028 +133 +099 177029 028 000
121500 2338 07717 7510 +0389 176030 +134 +100 175031 028 000
121600 2342 07717 7507 +0391 170032 +131 +082 168033 032 001
121700 2347 07717 7505 +0389 171033 +131 +084 172034 036 001
121800 2352 07717 7507 +0391 169030 +128 +103 174033 037 005
121900 2356 07718 7506 +0394 159027 +133 +114 165028 028 001
122000 2401 07718 7507 +0396 162029 +133 +107 163029 026 001

URNT40 KWBC 291230
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
122100 2404 07720 7498 +0396 156029 +132 +104 156030 024 000
122200 2402 07724 7503 +0391 155028 +134 +099 156030 024 001
122300 2400 07728 7505 +0386 157031 +134 +097 156031 026 001
122400 2358 07731 7505 +0366 154031 +138 +088 155032 031 003
122500 2355 07735 7507 +0346 158029 +136 +092 156031 999 999
122600 2353 07738 7509 +0339 161027 +139 +093 162029 999 999
122700 2351 07742 7506 +0334 157024 +142 +095 160025 051 004
122800 2349 07746 7506 +0333 155023 +146 +092 157024 069 002
122900 2347 07749 7505 +0338 151028 +145 +090 152032 043 002
123000 2345 07753 7509 +0348 160035 +147 +080 164039 028 001

URNT40 KWBC 291240
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
123100 2342 07757 7509 +0340 168032 +144 +106 161036 031 011
123200 2341 07800 7534 +0343 152030 +133 +122 147036 029 009
123300 2339 07804 7579 +0344 157031 +135 +110 154035 033 004
123400 2337 07808 7586 +0342 157033 +138 +106 153034 033 003
123500 2334 07811 7582 +0340 160034 +141 +088 160035 033 001
123600 2332 07815 7576 +0337 158033 +143 +090 158035 032 000
123700 2330 07819 7575 +0332 158027 +141 +105 156030 031 000
123800 2328 07822 7572 +0329 160024 +143 +112 158027 032 000
123900 2326 07826 7571 +0328 154024 +144 +113 158026 034 001
124000 2324 07829 7574 +0329 150023 +147 +112 151024 035 000

Derek can you inform us how to read these theya re different than the air force planes...Which row is winds...

[Derek Ortt]

125200 2335 07855 7578 +0313 116012 +150 +090 123013 022 001
125300 2339 07856 7571 +0315 114017 +144 +105 115019 024 000
125400 2344 07856 7588 -2490 005079 +147 +083 002145 025 000
125500 2348 07856 7570 +0322 130012 +148 +092 140013 028 004
125600 2352 07857 7571 +0327 114013 +146 +106 109014 032 005
125700 2356 07857 7574 +0327 125016 +148 +112 117022 041 015
125800 2400 07857 7580 +0339 103024 +142 +118 088029 047 025
125900 2404 07858 7556 +0349 111024 +137 +118 095029 040 009
130000 2408 07858 7555 +0355 111028 +136 +108 113030 035 001


There are some suspicious SFMR winds of 47KT

[SouthFloridawx]

Suspicious meaning?

[Normandy]

Yea I would believe those to be suspicious too.

[Meso]

If I remember correctly it's the last 3 digits of the 3rd last row... although I may be mistaken

[wjs3]

Wouldn't they make sense in light of the rainfall rate (last column)? Not so surprising in a squall, is it?

[Stormavoider]

if I'm reading it right there was a 69kt in there also.

[Derek Ortt]

something must be wrong with those winds as it appears as if there is a 145KT flight level wind, which has to be bogus, unless I am reading the reports wrong

[SouthFloridawx]

something must be wrong with those winds as it appears as if there is a 145KT flight level wind, which has to be bogus, unless I am reading the reports wrong

Isn't it the second colomn from the right?