TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[ronjon]

To me, I sorta laugh at "way to the left" when the FL penn. is so skinny down there, I think way to the left, I think GOM

Hmmm, maybe I should have said shifted west by 30-50 miles? Ah, last time I checked, Ft Myers was on the GOM. Here's the latest Key West Long Range Radar - center just showing up. It looks like the center is close to the same longitude as Miami - looks increasingly more westward shift along the SW coast.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... x&loop=yes

[linkerweather]

Now to refresh my memory... forward speed is added to the rotational speed correct? So if say the storm is 60mph, and 14 mph WNW/NW wouldn't that make a totla of 74mph?

No.
If the MAXIMUM wind speed is 60 mph measured by aircraft or estimated, that is taking into account the storms movement. So in this case as it moves WNW, the higher wind may be on the North side. That would mean you would find lower speeds on the south side as those west winds would also have to take into account the storm moving the other way.

[TampaFl]

Spaghetti models

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

link does not work. Here is the 2:00AM plots.


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Normandy]

Now to refresh my memory... forward speed is added to the rotational speed correct? So if say the storm is 60mph, and 14 mph WNW/NW wouldn't that make a totla of 74mph?

Yes and No.

A 74 mph storm is a 74 mph storm.

A stationary 74 mph cyclone is likely to have equal winds (or close) in all quadrants.

A 74 mph cycline moving at 30 mph will have 74 mph winds in its N quad, and a whole 10 mph wind in its south quad.

Furthermore, a 74 mph cyclone moving at 40 mph is not a closed circulation.

I think that is how it goes.

[BOPPA]

Now isn't that 2:00 Model with the shift W just what I wanted with my first cup
of coffee this morning ?!?! Even though it is a weak system, don't want
"anything" coming on shore that close to Ft. Myers.......

Anyone's thoughts on this model shift or strengh this morning?

[johngaltfla]

As I stated last night and as the GFS is projecting this morning, I think we will see a more Donna like path, a little east or west of that maybe. The intensity won't be the same, obviously, but if Ernie stays over water long enough, like getting just west of Sanibel Island again before heading inland, then all bets are off.

[Myersgirl]

Now isn't that 2:00 Model with the shift W just what I wanted with my first cup
of coffee this morning ?!?! Even though it is a weak system, don't want
"anything" coming on shore that close to Ft. Myers.......

Anyone's thoughts on this model shift or strengh this morning?

Yeah, thats not the good news

[wxman57]

Maybe some pockets of 50-60 mph wind over water is about it. Rainfall is the main threat from this storm.

Have you been to South Florida since Wilma and Katrina last year? If so you'd know that even 50-70 MPH storm could cause a lot of problems for us - there are still so many damanged roofs. KNABB just said this is going to be a wind event for that reason and the storm still has a chance of being a CAT 1.

There's a BIG BIG difference between small pockets of 60-70 mph over water and large pockets of 75-90 mph over land. The small pockets of 60-70 mph over water would translate to generally 30-45 mph winds over land. Some small sections of the coast could see brief periods of 50 mph wind or so. This is nothing like Wilma. Ernesto's main threat will be rain, not wind.

[wxman57]

Any chance that he might stall before landfall due to the change in direction expected?

Recurving storms dont' stall, at least in the initial recurving. High pressure may block Ernesto over NC or VA and make it stall there for a bit.

[Normandy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes\

Ok, i think I see rotation on the key west long rang radar, but I can't exactly pinpoint the center....

But one thing i DONT like....its not moving north very much at all.

[28_Storms]

wxman57 - NHC said this will be a wind event for South Florida - I'm not going to argue with you. I am not saying this storm will cause wind damage like Wilma. Wilma has made South Florida very vulnerable to even a strong TS. That is why KNABB said this is a wind event even with 70 MPH winds.

[jpigott]

certainly appears to be getting its act together somewhat on WV

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[johngaltfla]

URNT12 KNHC 291128
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/11:19:50Z
B. 22 deg 43 min N
079 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 062 deg 020 kt
G. 314 deg 057 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 34 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1305A ERNESTO OB 22
MAX FL WIND 36 KT NE QUAD 10:34:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR

Disturbing VDM. It's moving more West than NW, if you look at the coordinate history recently. It's almost to 80 degrees west and if it crosses 81 I just don't see how it will curve that sharply north in the next 12 hours.

Then again, I've learned to not try to predict too much of the unpredictable and this storm is definitely keeping everyone bamboozled.

[THead]

wxman57 - NHC said this will be a wind event for South Florida - I'm not going to argue with you. I am not saying this storm will cause wind damage like Wilma. Wilma has made South Florida very vulnerable to even a strong TS. That is why KNABB said this is a wind event even with 70 MPH winds.

Well, it'll either be a wind event or a non event, because Florida can handle more rain than any place I've ever seen, except for a few small areas in Dade county. Looks like you're going to be on the "dirty" side, so looks for a wet day, break out the dvds, hopefully you'll still have power to watch em.

Good luck everyone.

[Normandy]

URNT12 KNHC 291128
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/11:19:50Z
B. 22 deg 43 min N
079 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 062 deg 020 kt
G. 314 deg 057 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 34 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1305A ERNESTO OB 22
MAX FL WIND 36 KT NE QUAD 10:34:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR

Disturbing VDM. It's moving more West than NW, if you look at the coordinate history recently. It's almost to 80 degrees west and if it crosses 81 I just don't see how it will curve that sharply north in the next 12 hours.

Then again, I've learned to not try to predict too much of the unpredictable and this storm is definitely keeping everyone bamboozled.

Radar confirms this...looking at Key West and Cuban radars Ernesto seem in NO hurry whatsoever to turn NNW....

If you live on the West Coast of FL I would seriously think about preparing.

[Aquawind]

Any concerns related to the VDM would be direction and pressure.. Pressure still high.. if we see a big drop this afternoon and it keeps WNW motion over the water longer.. then a few people on the SW coast might get a surprise if they arean't wrapping up prep today..

[branen_35]

URNT12 KNHC 291128
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/11:19:50Z
B. 22 deg 43 min N
079 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 062 deg 020 kt
G. 314 deg 057 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 34 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1305A ERNESTO OB 22
MAX FL WIND 36 KT NE QUAD 10:34:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR

Disturbing VDM. It's moving more West than NW, if you look at the coordinate history recently. It's almost to 80 degrees west and if it crosses 81 I just don't see how it will curve that sharply north in the next 12 hours.

Then again, I've learned to not try to predict too much of the unpredictable and this storm is definitely keeping everyone bamboozled.

actually its moved true nw since the last vdm...

[storms in NC]

actually its moved true nw since the last vdm...5 degrees west and 5 degrees N

Thank you I thought I was seeing things I didn't want to say anything to up set any one

My daughter is in Fort Myers. Feel good only a rain event

[O Town]

Spaghetti models

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

link does not work. Here is the 2:00AM plots.


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Both links are bad.........Forbidden Error.

[Aquawind]

actually its moved true nw since the last vdm...

Cool.. I just woke up and saw there is more westward movement than expected. Glad to hear it's not WNW.. The turns can happen quickly and hopefully it does soon right up the middle of the peninsula..