TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Stormavoider]

Spaghetti models

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

link does not work. Here is the 2:00AM plots.


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Both links are bad.........Forbidden Error.

Both work for me.

[Meso]

Just go to http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ then click on Hurricane Guidance Products then Early-cycle track guidance or Early-cycle intensity guidance

[tgenius]

Don't know how important, but the 8am dropped NW speed from 14 to 13... don't know if 1mph is going to be a big deal, or is it? (Perhaps the beginning of a trend?

[storms in NC]

It could be starting to get alittle stronger

[Stormavoider]

The first visibles are coming in. You can see a "feature" were recon puts the center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-79&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

[linkerweather]

Don't know how important, but the 8am dropped NW speed from 14 to 13... don't know if 1mph is going to be a big deal, or is it? (Perhaps the beginning of a trend?

8 AM is still at 14 mph
But I am a bit suprised that the NHC still has it NW, it moved from 5 am 0.2 N and 0.4 west.

Also, recon and EYW radar seem to indicate WNW if not just north of west movement.

By the way, if my eyesight is correct the 5 am track had it passing 80 W at 24 North

[johngaltfla]

Don't know how important, but the 8am dropped NW speed from 14 to 13... don't know if 1mph is going to be a big deal, or is it? (Perhaps the beginning of a trend?

8 AM is still at 14 mph
But I am a bit suprised that the NHC still has it NW, it moved from 5 am 0.2 N and 0.4 west.

Also, recon and EYW radar seem to indicate WNW if not just north of west movement

Thank you Mr. Linker, I wasn't hallucinating then. If we still see a WNW movement in 12 hours, or by 1700, do you expect watches, etc. to be extended up into our neck of the woods?

[Aquawind]

Usually a slowdown occurs when turning. Either way a slower system with limited time over water does make a difference. Every addittional hour could make a big difference if the Ernesto machine gets it grove back on..

[linkerweather]

Don't know how important, but the 8am dropped NW speed from 14 to 13... don't know if 1mph is going to be a big deal, or is it? (Perhaps the beginning of a trend?

8 AM is still at 14 mph
But I am a bit suprised that the NHC still has it NW, it moved from 5 am 0.2 N and 0.4 west.

Also, recon and EYW radar seem to indicate WNW if not just north of west movement

Thank you Mr. Linker, I wasn't hallucinating then. If we still see a WNW movement in 12 hours, or by 1700, do you expect watches, etc. to be extended up into our neck of the woods?

Wait til 11 am likely some updated advisories for W central and SW florida

[tgenius]

Don't know how important, but the 8am dropped NW speed from 14 to 13... don't know if 1mph is going to be a big deal, or is it? (Perhaps the beginning of a trend?

8 AM is still at 14 mph
But I am a bit suprised that the NHC still has it NW, it moved from 5 am 0.2 N and 0.4 west.

Also, recon and EYW radar seem to indicate WNW if not just north of west movement.

By the way, if my eyesight is correct the 5 am track had it passing 80 W at 24 North

Not trying to be conflictive, but it IS 13mph, not 14mph.

edit: Ok, so its 13/14 depending where you look

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200605.gif

[Aquawind]

Don't know how important, but the 8am dropped NW speed from 14 to 13... don't know if 1mph is going to be a big deal, or is it? (Perhaps the beginning of a trend?

8 AM is still at 14 mph
But I am a bit suprised that the NHC still has it NW, it moved from 5 am 0.2 N and 0.4 west.

Also, recon and EYW radar seem to indicate WNW if not just north of west movement.

By the way, if my eyesight is correct the 5 am track had it passing 80 W at 24 North

Fine be that way.. reality is no fun.. Thanks for the clarification.

[Vandora]

Not trying to be conflictive, but it IS 13mph, not 14mph.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200605.gif

The NHC site 8am advisory says: ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

So I guess it's all in how you interpert "near" 14 MPH.

EDIT: Oops, you saw that I guess, sorry!

[SWLA]

The storm appears to be directly under the axis of the high to its north. That's why the movement has a more westerly component right now. Should begin to turn more northerly pretty soon as the high is sliding eastward off the east coast.

[johngaltfla]

The storm appears to be directly under the axis of the high to its north. That's why the movement has a more westerly component right now. Should begin to turn more northerly pretty soon as the high is sliding eastward off the east coast.

Haven't seen the ridge move that much yet. The shortwave does not appear as intense as orginally thought. I think the next 12 hours tells the story. This storm is still moving more W than NW.

[linkerweather]

The storm appears to be directly under the axis of the high to its north. That's why the movement has a more westerly component right now. Should begin to turn more northerly pretty soon as the high is sliding eastward off the east coast.

The western edge of the high is still about 100 miles into the GOM. It should move soon, but it hasn't yet, No northward move at least through this afternoon, IMO

[chris_fit]

It's not dead yet?

Good morning

[Canelaw99]

Nope, not quite dead yet - and Ernie says: "It's only a flesh wound!"

This morning shall be interesting, that's for sure...he may very well get his act together over that nice warm water, but we'll see.

[Aquawind]

Gotta remember Florida has little friction for the storm versus the landmasses that it just got disrupted from.. This could intensify as the center actaully makes landfall and even a tad inland if it's over the swamp. Way different topography..

[tgenius]

You know... I am looking at Miami Short Radar, and I don't see the NW either on the convection (Yes, I know the COC is way under the blob) I don't think we'll get rain for quite some time (5-6 hr) if at all...

[Normandy]

The storm appears to be directly under the axis of the high to its north. That's why the movement has a more westerly component right now. Should begin to turn more northerly pretty soon as the high is sliding eastward off the east coast.

The western edge of the high is still about 100 miles into the GOM. It should move soon, but it hasn't yet, No northward move at least through this afternoon, IMO

I pray you are wrong....

If that verifies it would turn NW to NNW too late