TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Canelaw99]

our local CBS mets have been saying the center is at the bottom of that blob rather than underneath it. Makes it so confusing lol, why can't Ernie hurry up and get his little center under the blob? Makes it easier to track that way.

[wxman57]

wxman57 - NHC said this will be a wind event for South Florida - I'm not going to argue with you. I am not saying this storm will cause wind damage like Wilma. Wilma has made South Florida very vulnerable to even a strong TS. That is why KNABB said this is a wind event even with 70 MPH winds.

The way Ernesto looks now, and as fast as it's moving, I'd be surprised if there are any observations beyond 20 miles inland that report sustained wind of TS force. Sure, there may be some tree branches down (if any are left after last year) and some brief power outages, but this is no Wilma.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

That woul dbe a very bad thing if this storm "suprised" everyone in the Tampa Bay area. I have already heard the talk around the office and most folks have already totally dismissed this storm as "it completely fell apart" and "its going to Miami anyway".

IF it continues more westerly and then gets farther up north before making the NE turn (since the trought seems weaker than previously indicated), it would strengthen considerably over the warmest waters the gulf has to offer.

Additionally, we can't forget that it takes a minimum of 53 hours to evacuate Pinellas county flood zone levels A-C (that is based on population in 2003). A change in track this late in the game is already "too late" to accomplish an orderly evacuation. The fire departments also need a lot of time to coordinate the evacuation of all the special needs population in Pinellas County.

Hopefully this storm goes in South of Tampa Bay. -not wishing anythign bad on our southern neighbors, but it would be worse to hit up here after we were taken out of the cone of uncertainty at the 5pm last night (though barely). Many folks locally won't see any news update until that time again tonite.

[johngaltfla]

That woul dbe a very bad thing if this storm "suprised" everyone in the Tampa Bay area. I have already heard the talk around the office and most folks have already totally dismissed this storm as "it completely fell apart" and "its going to Miami anyway".

IF it continues more westerly and then gets farther up north before making the NE turn (since the trought seems weaker than previously indicated), it would strengthen considerably over the warmest waters the gulf has to offer.

Additionally, we can't forget that it takes a minimum of 53 hours to evacuate Pinellas county flood zone levels A-C (that is based on population in 2003). A change in track this late in the game is already "too late" to accomplish an orderly evacuation. The fire departments also need a lot of time to coordinate the evacuation of all the special needs population in Pinellas County.

Hopefully this storm goes in South of Tampa Bay. -not wishing anythign bad on our southern neighbors, but it would be worse to hit up here after we were taken out of the cone of uncertainty at the 5pm last night (though barely). Many folks locally won't see any news update until that time again tonite.

You obviously haven't seen what an attempted evacuation of Manasota and Longboat Keys would be like. Not as bad as Pinellas but lots of big large 10 year old Caddys and Oldsmobiles driving 10 mph with the left blinker on.

Sarasota County is in no way prepared for a direct hit.

[Scorpion]

Just woke up, and its now up to 45 mph . Yay, it didnt die over Cuba. We might actually see *some* wind out of this afterall.

[Normandy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Center of Ernesto is now in radar range...looks rather healthy to me.

[Bane]

Just woke up, and its now up to 45 mph . Yay, it didnt die over Cuba. We might actually see *some* wind out of this afterall.

seriously, i don't mind the rain if it is a quick mover, but i can do without the wind.

[Canelaw99]

LOL, after putting up the shutters and the fiasco I had at the FLL Publix I was in yesterday, we'd BETTER see something out of this storm LOL

Here's the fiasco: I'm in FLL (Oakland Park & A1A) visiting my parents and decide to do the Publix thing then rather than waiting till I got home yesterday evening. As soon as we walk in the store, the power goes out (found out later it was an auto accident and someone took out a pole), but we keep shopping. I get everything I need to get and the lines are insane because the registers are now down. Eventually, we make it to about 3 people back from a register and now this particular register isn't working. We finally make it to another line and get the stuff, but no lie, we were at Publix for about 2 1/2 hours or so. It was awful!

[Normandy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Center of Ernesto is now in radar range...looks rather healthy to me.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Scorpion... "Yay"


...are you nuts?! You must not own a home or have any responsibility for the safety of others to have that opinion. These may be fun to watch, but "Yay" regarding strengthening of a soon-to-be-landfalling cyclone is not the reaction the people in its path want to hear!

[tracyswfla]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Center of Ernesto is now in radar range...looks rather healthy to me.

My untrained eyes see it heading west. I know the 8am discussion says NW. What is everyone's thoughts on that?

[Scorpion]

Scorpion... "Yay"


...are you nuts?! You must not own a home or have any responsibility for the safety of others to have that opinion. These may be fun to watch, but "Yay" regarding strengthening of a soon-to-be-landfalling cyclone is not the reaction the people in its path want to hear!

Well, I want to at least see a show. I'm talking about 40 mph winds, 50 mph gusts or so.

[Normandy]

Its tough to call its direction from that radar, but one thing is for sure the convection is pushing west.

[johngaltfla]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Center of Ernesto is now in radar range...looks rather healthy to me.

My untrained eyes see it heading west. I know the 8am discussion says NW. What is everyone's thoughts on that?

.2 N .4W so definitely more west than north. Linkerweather discussed that earlier in the thread.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I have a feeling he is going to end up more west then expected and suprise some people

[tracyswfla]

I have a feeling he is going to end up more west then expected and suprise some people

I am starting to wonder as well. Thank God it is only a TS.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

when you have no water or electricity for 28 days straight, then intermittently for 2 more weeks, then we'll see if "yay" is what you think when you see the possibility of one coming at you again.

I understand the excitement you may be feeling, but understand many of us are feeling trepidation right now and can't help but take some offense at that sort of joyous reaction.

[tgenius]

So basically if that Shortwave doesn't come down he won't hook north, is that correct?

[Bgator]

Do not look at Miami radar YET to see motion, it is in longe range, hence as the radar image shoots down its curved, and it doesnt accuretly portray motion, am i coorect?

[otowntiger]

Ernie not looking at all impressive to me. Given the fact that his satellite presentation is so underwhelming and he's actually gained two millibars in the last advisory, the fact he's moving so quickly, I'd be very surprised if he got much if any stronger. He' got a lot of work to do in a very short time. We do need the rain here in Central Florida, but I'm feeling pretty good that we won't see any damaging winds, certainly not here and maybe not even for our neighbors to our south. Now I could be wrong and he could gain intensity rapidly but he clearly has not started and I think if he's not begun some degree of reorganizing by now he won't. JMHO. But, it's certainly wise to take precautions because the NHC thinks differently.