TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[jpigott]

The RAMSDIS visibile loop is pretty good and updates more often than the loops on the NHC site. Take a look at the latest loop, you will see a convective blow up on the NE side of the main convective mass, then a few frames later another blow up within the earlier blow up. Could it be we see another center reformation under these newest blow ups??

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[tgenius]

The COC is still East of Miami, even though the convection is way west... from what the mets on Ch 4 are saying...

[gatorcane]

big-time convection blows are underway folks - we are witnessing just how poweful the waters of the Florida straits can be - and it hasn't even gone over the Gulf stream yet

[tgenius]

big-time convection blows are underway folks - we are witnessing just how poweful the waters of the Florida straits can be - and it hasn't even gone over the Gulf stream yet

What are you looking at that makes you think that gatorcane?

[gatorcane]

Look at the deep red that just blew up in the past 30 minutes.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[caneseddy]

The RAMSDIS visibile loop is pretty good and updates more often than the loops on the NHC site. Take a look at the latest loop, you will see a convective blow up on the NE side of the main convective mass, then a few frames later another blow up within the earlier blow up. Could it be we see another center reformation under these newest blow ups??

On Channel 6, they were interviewing Knabb from the NHC and they asked him whether the plane has flown over the convective blob to the NE since they are noticing and he said no but that the plane will probably head there to check it out and it concerns him. I doubt that is where the center is, and even if it goes just a hair west of us, like say around extreme southern mainland Monroe County( Florida Bay) we'll ge the dirty side of the stom no matter what, so it's just a wait and see atittude

[stormtruth]

Lots of rain! CBS4 ( cbs4.com ) is saying 5-10 inches of rain, locally 15 inches.

[Stormavoider]

I may be wrong. It looks like the center is under the southern part of that blob.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-79&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

[gatorcane]

how long has the center been over water for? Just a couple of hours or so?

[storms in NC]

The RAMSDIS visibile loop is pretty good and updates more often than the loops on the NHC site. Take a look at the latest loop, you will see a convective blow up on the NE side of the main convective mass, then a few frames later another blow up within the earlier blow up. Could it be we see another center reformation under these newest blow ups??

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

Don't think that would happen but you never know. If it does it would bring it back to the right of the forecast path IMO

[drezee]

The one thing that I am not liking about the look of this system is the outflow and convection in the path of the LLC. This will provide a very favorable environment in the near term.

[Derek Ortt]

center is not under the blob

Looking at a very highly zoomed in GARP loop and the inflow bands are such that the cneter is on the southern side, but it appears to be better defined this morning

[BOPPA]

Derek - Your thoughts on the "talked about" change in track to SW Fl. ?
And strength?

[TampaFl]

The RAMSDIS visibile loop is pretty good and updates more often than the loops on the NHC site. Take a look at the latest loop, you will see a convective blow up on the NE side of the main convective mass, then a few frames later another blow up within the earlier blow up. Could it be we see another center reformation under these newest blow ups??

On Channel 6, they were interviewing Knabb from the NHC and they asked him whether the plane has flown over the convective blob to the NE since they are noticing and he said no but that the plane will probably head there to check it out and it concerns him. I doubt that is where the center is, and even if it goes just a hair west of us, like say around extreme southern mainland Monroe County( Florida Bay) we'll ge the dirty side of the stom no matter what, so it's just a wait and see atittude

IMHO, I think since this is not a well organized system, I do not think there is a dirty side, the storm is dirty! It is one big mass. Sure the winds will still be somewhat stronger on the east side, but over all not like if it was well organized or for that matter a major hurricane.

[Normandy]

thats where i see the center

[boca]

Will this storm turn north and head up the spine of Florida or tack a track up the west coast or skim along the Cuban coast. So far it looks like its pararelling the Cuban coast.

[storms in NC]

it can organized in a few hours. There is no tell what this storm might be able to do. It has been on or around land for 3 days now and from what I can see it is reorganizeing. Just wait a few hours and see if it does or not. Time will only tell.

[cinlfla]

Looking ar the visable to it looks like Ernesto is gettting a little stronger. I'm curious to see if pressure has droped any.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like the inflow is starting to improve again since it doesn't have to go over those mountains.

[tailgater]

Looking at long range radar out of KW the flow is mostly WNW but everything Ive seen says this storm should be moving NW or NNW now or Very soon.
http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/R ... e_anim.gif