TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Myersgirl]

NCH track currently the eastern outlier again
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[Zadok]

It looks like the NHC is the outlier. Will they adjust their track at 11:00?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[TampaFl]

It looks like the NHC is the outlier. Will they adjust their track at 11:00?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

IMHO, I think they will. The GFDL, NOGPS, GFS have all shifted west.

[tronbunny]

NCH track currently the eastern outlier again
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Looks like the 0600Z GFDL is showing us a Donna/Charley like track...
Ahhh, but thank goodness there's no way Ernie can gather that kind of steam!

[westmoon]

tronbunny,

Myersgirl wrote:
NCH track currently the eastern outlier again
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Looks like the 0600Z GFDL is showing us a Donna/Charley like track...
Ahhh, but thank goodness there's no way Ernie can gather that kind of steam!

Lets just hope he can't . There is a lot of hot water for him right now in the GOM

[Myersgirl]

Glad Earnie is so disorganized, most people here are not taking it seriously. Hope their luck holds.

[Scorpion]

I believe if it hits the west coast it will have alot more time over water so that it could intensify to a Cat 1.

[storms in NC]

I think NHC has a hold on this now. if any thing it would move back to the right aittle. You can see on the vloop that it is being flaten on the west side. That tell me it would be going on the track it is on by the NHC if not to the right a tad. remember wobbles here and there will make a big diffence in it's track. east or west.

[JPmia]

I think NHC has a hold on this now. if any thing it would move back to the right aittle. You can see on the vloop that it is being flaten on the west side. That tell me it would be going on the track it is on by the NHC if not to the right a tad. remember wobbles here and there will make a big diffence in it's track. east or west.

I agree with you. I think their current track and forecast dead on. See no reason to change it.

[cinlfla]

I believe if it hits the west coast it will have alot more time over water so that it could intensify to a Cat 1.

I was wondering about that, more time over water=stronger storm, that can't be good. I'm also noticing even with the models flipping back and forth from east to west we are still getting whacked where I'm at, maybe mostley rain but thats ok its needed. I've also noticed that a lot of those models take Ernesto right through Orlando, now thats not good lets hope he stays a weak TS

[N2DaTropics]

I think NHC has a hold on this now. if any thing it would move back to the right aittle. You can see on the vloop that it is being flaten on the west side. That tell me it would be going on the track it is on by the NHC if not to the right a tad. remember wobbles here and there will make a big diffence in it's track. east or west.

I don't think that you can classify a WNW movent for the last 12 hrs. a wobble...the High is not moving east nearly as fast as the models expected it to...the longer the high takes to move east, the more wnw-nw movement Ernesto is going to undergo...

[saints63213]

I think NHC has a hold on this now. if any thing it would move back to the right aittle. You can see on the vloop that it is being flaten on the west side. That tell me it would be going on the track it is on by the NHC if not to the right a tad. remember wobbles here and there will make a big diffence in it's track. east or west.

I see no flatening at all im not sure what your seeing.. Can you point out what you mean by flaten on the west side I see some flatening on the south side but not the west. not sure if I would call that flating on the south side just not good out flow.

[Blown Away]

Is it possible the center could reform SW of Andros island? Big ball of convection with the appearance of rotation, I know it likely won't, just appears that way, IMO. Definite NW movement.

[westmoon]

N2DaTropics,

I don't think that you can classify a WNW movent for the last 12 hrs. a wobble...the High is not moving east nearly as fast as the models expected it to...the longer the high takes to move east, the more wnw-nw movement Ernesto is going to undergo...

I see the same thing, the high doesn't seam to be moving as fast as it should be. the 11AM update should be interesting!

[gatorcane]

lots of deep convection now blowing up everywhere - I expect the winds to get bumped up to at 11:00am

[SouthFloridawx]

The ridge is heading eastward and you can see signs of that on the WV img.

If you are going to go by some models you are going to have to wait for the 12Z guidance to come out as they would be the latest model runs. The graphic posted above looks to be 00Z and 06Z runs. One of the 12Z ships take it to 63kts before landfall.

[stormtruth]

N2DaTropics,

I don't think that you can classify a WNW movent for the last 12 hrs. a wobble...the High is not moving east nearly as fast as the models expected it to...the longer the high takes to move east, the more wnw-nw movement Ernesto is going to undergo...

I see the same thing, the high doesn't seam to be moving as fast as it should be. the 11AM update should be interesting!

It could also slow down some before turning north. That would also give it more time over water.

[gatorcane]

slow down? How would it do that?

[stormie]

tronbunny,

Myersgirl wrote:
NCH track currently the eastern outlier again
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Looks like the 0600Z GFDL is showing us a Donna/Charley like track...
Ahhh, but thank goodness there's no way Ernie can gather that kind of steam!

Lets just hope he can't . There is a lot of hot water for him right now in the GOM

Well, according to 970 WFLA in Tampa this morning, if Ernesto did reach Tampa, it would be nothing more than a thunderstorm, so we are completely in the clear.

Personally, I think that was an irresponsible statement given that Tampa is still in the cone of uncertainty, a cone which still includes a stretch of warm water between Ernesto and Tampa and therefore the possibility (not probability) of something stronger than a thunderstorm reaching Tampa.

It seems reasonable given the model shift that the actual track will likely be west of current NHC thinking, since the NHC track is the outlier. Although, I understand that they move slowly so as not to make bit jumps from forecast to forecast. Still, although I don't expect much more than a thunderstorm and possibly some heavy winds in this area (maybe!), the media really should tell people to be prepared, no? This is exactly why everyone was so surprised with Charlie even though where he struck was within the cone...

Okay, I'll get off my rant now -- but, really guys, am I missing something here or was that a crazy statement by the media or what??

[BensonTCwatcher]

As with any intensity forecast, there are so many variables that it's best guess. But If lived in S FL I would look at a few things....

#1
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

#2
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg

#3
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.htm

and maybe even this
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

All in all that looks like it could just about ruin your day if you litened to just the "drive by " media and did prepare. Charley sure proved what a storm CAN do in that portion of the Gulf/Carrib. Of course the GFDL HNC Consensus track has Cat 1 winds over my house this weekend, but right now FL is in the crosshairs. SW Fl had better be ready for something more than a TS.