Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Bgator]

Someone told me 925 you should reduce it by .75, well isnt 925b closer to the surface meaning u reduce it less, cause its closer to the surface...

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 291410
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
140100 2310 07926 7556 +0324 080015 +144 +105 078016 012 000
140200 2308 07922 7556 +0323 079013 +144 +111 079014 015 000
140300 2306 07918 7557 +0325 084011 +146 +110 085013 020 002
140400 2306 07914 7552 +0322 102011 +146 +109 126013 011 000
140500 2308 07910 7548 +0315 134015 +146 +114 132016 012 000
140600 2310 07907 7551 +0321 141017 +146 +124 139017 024 004
140700 2313 07903 7550 +0324 155016 +146 +127 158019 030 006
140800 2315 07859 7549 +0326 152016 +145 +123 150020 037 009
140900 2317 07856 7526 +0320 156028 +143 +132 157036 045 021
141000 2320 07852 7539 +0325 145022 +145 +121 136025 033 003

45 knots at the surface, FWIW.

[wjs3]

Bgator:

I saw that post in the other thread. That 925 was from a dropsonde--reporting as it was falling toward the surface, so, yes, you do have to reduce it to get a reasonable surface estimate.

The SFMR is estimating winds at the surface. You shouldn't have to reduce them...they are, in fact, surface winds.

That 69 kts seems really suspicious.

[Thunder44]

About the NOAA plane. If the SFMR readings are WAY off than the the flight level winds in the same area, then it's probably bogus. Perhaps vice-versa as well.

[Bgator]

I realize you must reduce the dropsonde but why .75% thast higher than what you wuld reduce at flight level wouldnt 900mb be like .9% reduction?

[Scorpion]

I realize you must reduce the dropsonde but why .75% thast higher than what you wuld reduce at flight level wouldnt 900mb be like .9% reduction?

Winds are higher near the surface and then drop off significantly before the surface.

[StormsAhead]

Someone told me 925 you should reduce it by .75, well isnt 925b closer to the surface meaning u reduce it less, cause its closer to the surface...

While that might seem logical, it's not true. A tropical storm's or hurricane's highest winds are at 925mb or so, and winds higher up and farther down are lower. At 700mb, where recon flies for hurricanes, the winds are closest to those at the surface.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 291422
AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 15 KNHC
1412. 2427N 08046W 00863 0039 051 023 196 196 025 00927 0000000000
1413 2426N 08044W 00592 0015 047 024 220 220 024 00633 0000000100
1413. 2424N 08043W 00472 5000 059 025 222 222 026 00496 0000000100
1414 2423N 08042W 00443 5003 062 027 228 228 027 00465 0000000100
1414. 2422N 08040W 00457 5004 062 028 220 220 028 00477 0000000100
1415 2421N 08039W 00454 5004 069 027 214 214 029 00475 0000000000
1415. 2420N 08038W 00456 5004 068 027 222 220 028 00477 0000000000
1416 2419N 08037W 00455 5005 070 026 220 220 027 00475 0000000000
1416. 2418N 08036W 00455 5005 073 025 216 216 026 00473 0000000000
1417 2417N 08035W 00457 5005 075 025 214 214 025 00476 0000000000
1417. 2416N 08034W 00457 5006 075 024 218 218 024 00474 0000000000
1418 2415N 08032W 00457 5007 070 025 220 220 027 00473 0000000000
1418. 2414N 08031W 00458 5007 065 025 222 222 027 00473 0000000000
1419 2413N 08030W 00456 5007 061 025 222 222 027 00471 0000000000
1419. 2412N 08029W 00460 5008 061 024 220 220 025 00475 0000000000
1420 2411N 08028W 00456 5008 058 024 224 214 024 00470 0000000000
1420. 2410N 08027W 00457 5009 059 024 228 216 024 00470 0000000000
1421 2409N 08025W 00456 5010 060 023 226 220 023 00469 0000000000
1421. 2408N 08024W 00458 5010 059 022 224 224 023 00471 0000000000
1422 2407N 08023W 00456 5010 059 026 230 222 027 00468 0000000000
;

[StormsAhead]

NOAA flight:

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 291425
97779 14174 30243 80600 04600 07024 22228 /9770
40725
RMK AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 05

AF: 25 knots at the surface

[wjs3]

About the NOAA plane. If the SFMR readings are WAY off than the the flight level winds in the same area, then it's probably bogus. Perhaps vice-versa as well.

Great point. Thanks for reminding me about that. I got too focused on the SFMR.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL
BE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Windsurfer_NYC]

there was no 69KT reading, just the 47 and I dont believe the 47

Actually, there was a 69KT reading:
URNT40 KWBC 291230
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
122100 2404 07720 7498 +0396 156029 +132 +104 156030 024 000
122200 2402 07724 7503 +0391 155028 +134 +099 156030 024 001
122300 2400 07728 7505 +0386 157031 +134 +097 156031 026 001
122400 2358 07731 7505 +0366 154031 +138 +088 155032 031 003
122500 2355 07735 7507 +0346 158029 +136 +092 156031 999 999
122600 2353 07738 7509 +0339 161027 +139 +093 162029 999 999
122700 2351 07742 7506 +0334 157024 +142 +095 160025 051 004
122800 2349 07746 7506 +0333 155023 +146 +092 157024 069 002
122900 2347 07749 7505 +0338 151028 +145 +090 152032 043 002
123000 2345 07753 7509 +0348 160035 +147 +080 164039 028 001

Actually, that is not a wind reading you highlighted - the wind for that ob is 23 kts with a peak wind of 24 kts, as shown below:

122800 2349 07746 7506 +0333 155023 +146 +092 157024 069 002

[StormsAhead]

there was no 69KT reading, just the 47 and I dont believe the 47

Actually, there was a 69KT reading:
URNT40 KWBC 291230
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
122100 2404 07720 7498 +0396 156029 +132 +104 156030 024 000
122200 2402 07724 7503 +0391 155028 +134 +099 156030 024 001
122300 2400 07728 7505 +0386 157031 +134 +097 156031 026 001
122400 2358 07731 7505 +0366 154031 +138 +088 155032 031 003
122500 2355 07735 7507 +0346 158029 +136 +092 156031 999 999
122600 2353 07738 7509 +0339 161027 +139 +093 162029 999 999
122700 2351 07742 7506 +0334 157024 +142 +095 160025 051 004
122800 2349 07746 7506 +0333 155023 +146 +092 157024 069 002
122900 2347 07749 7505 +0338 151028 +145 +090 152032 043 002
123000 2345 07753 7509 +0348 160035 +147 +080 164039 028 001

Actually, that is not a wind reading you highlighted - the wind for that ob is 23 kts with a peak wind of 24 kts, as shown below:

122800 2349 07746 7506 +0333 155023 +146 +092 157024 069 002

It's SFMR

[wjs3]

there was no 69KT reading, just the 47 and I dont believe the 47

Actually, there was a 69KT reading:
URNT40 KWBC 291230
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
122100 2404 07720 7498 +0396 156029 +132 +104 156030 024 000
122200 2402 07724 7503 +0391 155028 +134 +099 156030 024 001
122300 2400 07728 7505 +0386 157031 +134 +097 156031 026 001
122400 2358 07731 7505 +0366 154031 +138 +088 155032 031 003
122500 2355 07735 7507 +0346 158029 +136 +092 156031 999 999
122600 2353 07738 7509 +0339 161027 +139 +093 162029 999 999
122700 2351 07742 7506 +0334 157024 +142 +095 160025 051 004
122800 2349 07746 7506 +0333 155023 +146 +092 157024 069 002
122900 2347 07749 7505 +0338 151028 +145 +090 152032 043 002
123000 2345 07753 7509 +0348 160035 +147 +080 164039 028 001

Actually, that is not a wind reading you highlighted - the wind for that ob is 23 kts with a peak wind of 24 kts, as shown below:

122800 2349 07746 7506 +0333 155023 +146 +092 157024 069 002

Sorry, windsurfer, it's a wind reading, but from the SFMR. You highlighted the flight level winds (correctly), but the SFMR did say 69 kts there as a surface estimate.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 79.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 79.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.4N 80.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.3N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.9N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 39.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 43.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 79.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KWBC 291423
97779 14234 30238 78029 23000 16031 14103 /8012
RMK NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO OB 12 KWBC

NOAA: 31 knots FL

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Ah, ok, got it, thanks wjs3 and StormsAhead!

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 291420
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
141100 2322 07848 7538 +0332 158022 +151 +101 158023 030 000
141200 2325 07845 7538 +0334 159023 +155 +104 155024 032 000
141300 2327 07841 7542 +0337 160024 +148 +117 162025 032 000
141400 2329 07837 7543 +0344 164028 +145 +127 169035 033 004
141500 2331 07833 7537 +0349 169026 +143 +124 166030 037 001
141600 2332 07829 7544 +0355 165026 +143 +116 157030 036 001
141700 2333 07824 7539 +0355 167030 +141 +120 162031 037 002
141800 2335 07820 7586 +0358 162034 +140 +128 160036 037 005
141900 2337 07817 7558 +0364 154032 +139 +123 149034 037 001
142000 2340 07813 7555 +0374 158032 +139 +106 163033 038 003

[Thunder44]