Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[cycloneye]

[StormsAhead]

NOAA:

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 291430
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
142100 2342 07809 7553 +0374 153036 +134 +119 145041 038 005
142200 2344 07805 7556 +0384 156033 +134 +098 156035 032 000
142300 2347 07802 7553 +0388 154032 +138 +096 151033 029 000
142400 2349 07758 7552 +0387 158030 +136 +095 158031 027 000
142500 2351 07754 7548 +0389 162029 +136 +097 165030 027 000
142600 2354 07751 7551 +0389 162029 +137 +096 165032 025 001
142700 2356 07747 7550 +0355 165028 +139 +088 161029 077 004
142800 2358 07743 7552 +0362 170027 +143 +089 170028 999 999
142900 2401 07740 7553 +0406 171027 +142 +094 172029 999 999
143000 2404 07738 7556 +0416 167026 +144 +093 172027 999 999

41 knots FL, then SFMR has 77 knots

EDIT: probably due to land interaction since they are now flying over Andros Island:

[Thunder44]

SXXX50 KNHC 291432
AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 16 KNHC
1422. 2406N 08022W 00458 5011 059 025 226 224 026 00470 0000000000
1423 2404N 08021W 00457 5011 056 024 224 224 025 00469 0000000000
1423. 2403N 08020W 00456 5011 054 025 224 224 025 00468 0000000000
1424 2402N 08018W 00458 5012 049 025 222 222 025 00469 0000000000
1424. 2401N 08017W 00457 5011 049 025 220 220 026 00468 0000000000
1425 2400N 08016W 00456 5012 051 026 222 222 027 00467 0000000000
1425. 2359N 08015W 00436 5002 049 025 222 222 025 00445 0000000000
1426 2358N 08014W 00428 5003 043 025 222 222 026 00436 0000000000
1426. 2357N 08012W 00421 5004 045 027 218 218 028 00428 0000000000
1427 2356N 08011W 00431 5004 048 027 226 226 028 00438 0000000000
1427. 2355N 08010W 00426 5005 057 023 228 224 025 00432 0000000000
1428 2354N 08009W 00427 5005 059 021 224 224 021 00434 0000000000
1428. 2353N 08008W 00428 5006 061 021 222 222 021 00433 0000000000
1429 2352N 08007W 00426 5006 062 019 222 222 021 00432 0000000000
1429. 2350N 08005W 00427 5006 058 019 220 220 019 00432 0000000000
1430 2349N 08004W 00427 5007 054 018 224 224 019 00432 0000000000
1430. 2348N 08003W 00430 5007 052 020 216 216 023 00435 0000000000
1431 2347N 08002W 00422 5008 061 022 212 212 023 00426 0000000000
1431. 2346N 08001W 00428 5009 058 019 216 216 019 00431 0000000000
1432 2345N 08000W 00427 5010 055 020 218 218 020 00429 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[StormsAhead]

THEY FOUND 77 knots?!?!?!?

It's SFMR. It has problems with things like land and heavy rain. So it's safe to say that anything far from the FL winds is just an error.

[craptacular]

Based on the 11AM NHC advisory, the next set of obs from the AF plane should be for the vortex area.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 291442
AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 17 KNHC
1432. 2344N 07958W 00427 5011 052 020 224 224 021 00427 0000000000
1433 2343N 07957W 00426 5011 050 022 222 222 022 00426 0000000000
1433. 2342N 07956W 00427 5012 041 018 218 218 018 00427 0000000000
1434 2341N 07955W 00426 5012 048 017 222 222 017 00426 0000000000
1434. 2340N 07954W 00428 5012 042 016 220 220 016 00428 0000000000
1435 2339N 07952W 00426 5012 044 015 218 218 017 00426 0000000000
1435. 2337N 07951W 00426 5013 044 018 222 222 020 00424 0000000000
1436 2336N 07950W 00428 5013 033 015 222 222 016 00426 0000000000
1436. 2335N 07949W 00426 5013 032 017 224 224 017 00425 0000000000
1437 2334N 07948W 00427 5013 029 016 226 226 017 00425 0000000000
1437. 2333N 07946W 00425 5013 035 017 224 224 018 00423 0000000000
1438 2332N 07945W 00428 5015 027 014 226 222 016 00425 0000000000
1438. 2332N 07943W 00426 5015 016 012 226 226 012 00422 0000000000
1439 2331N 07942W 00427 5016 358 011 226 226 011 00423 0000000000
1439. 2331N 07940W 00426 5016 355 011 230 224 012 00421 0000000000
1440 2330N 07938W 00426 5017 002 014 232 226 014 00421 0000000000
1440. 2330N 07937W 00427 5018 004 013 236 222 014 00421 0000000000
1441 2330N 07935W 00427 5019 010 008 234 228 009 00420 0000000000
1441. 2330N 07933W 00426 5019 012 008 232 232 008 00419 0000000000
1442 2330N 07932W 00428 5021 010 005 232 232 006 00419 0000000000
;

[SouthFloridawx]

If that is what the winds are now I think the east coast of florida will probably see some pretty decent tropical storm force winds if this storm continues to get better organized.

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 291425
XXAA 79148 99235 70784 08038 99009 26629 15036 00083 25824 14538
92766 21011 16044 85497 17809 16534 88999 77999
31313 09608 81416
61616 NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO OB 13
62626 SPL 2358N07845W 1419 WL150 14538 085 DLM WND 16037 008766 M
BL WND 15041=
XXBB 79148 99235 70784 08038 00009 26629 11008 26429 22918 20808
33898 20006 44766 14022
21212 00009 15036 11977 14543 22937 16045 33876 16535 44766 16028
31313 09608 81416
61616 NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO OB 13
62626 SPL 2358N07845W 1419 WL150 14538 085 DLM WND 16037 008766 M
BL WND 15041=

NOAA: 1009mb and 36 knots at the surface.
1000mb: 38 knots
977mb: 43 knots
937mb: 45 knots
925mb: 44 knots
876mb: 35 knots
850mb: 34 knots

[cycloneye]

VDM comming.

[Thunder44]

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 291440
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
143100 2407 07741 7555 +0398 162025 +143 +092 161025 999 999
143200 2410 07745 7556 +0402 163026 +142 +093 164027 999 999
143300 2412 07749 7555 +0385 165025 +143 +104 166026 041 001
143400 2415 07753 7552 +0389 160026 +145 +096 162026 064 005
143500 2417 07758 7552 +0398 159025 +145 +092 158026 035 001
143600 2420 07802 7551 +0372 159026 +142 +094 158027 061 003
143700 2422 07806 7550 +0362 157026 +142 +098 157027 089 011
143800 2424 07810 7546 +0367 154027 +146 +088 155027 060 002
143900 2426 07814 7548 +0391 149027 +146 +089 146028 036 000
144000 2428 07819 7552 +0392 145026 +143 +103 141027 032 001

[Eyewall]

The storm is looking much better, but there are no higher winds..
what were the highest winds found?

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like they've located the LLC vicinity pretty quickly this time, a far cry from what the process has been like for most of the system's life.

[StormsAhead]

NOAA:

[Scorpion]

I still expect a high pressure. The pressure just doesn't seem to be dropping at all with this storm.

[craptacular]

The winds in the last set of obs did not show such a big change in direction, but then they immediately started flying due east.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 291452
AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 18 KNHC
1442. 2329N 07930W 00426 5022 357 004 234 234 004 00416 0000000000
1443 2329N 07928W 00427 5022 316 003 236 232 003 00416 0000000000
1443. 2329N 07926W 00427 5021 304 002 238 224 003 00417 0000000000
1444 2329N 07925W 00425 5020 253 001 234 226 002 00416 0000000000
1444. 2328N 07923W 00417 5021 304 001 230 230 001 00408 0000000000
1445 2327N 07922W 00430 5020 286 002 230 230 003 00421 0000000000
1445. 2326N 07921W 00427 5020 285 004 230 230 005 00418 0000000000
1446 2325N 07920W 00427 5020 281 005 226 226 005 00418 0000000000
1446. 2323N 07919W 00427 5020 288 005 226 226 006 00418 0000000000
1447 2322N 07917W 00426 5020 287 006 228 228 006 00418 0000000000
1447. 2321N 07916W 00428 5022 283 007 230 230 008 00418 0000000000
1448 2320N 07915W 00427 5022 285 008 230 230 008 00417 0000000000
1448. 2319N 07914W 00425 5021 281 006 228 228 006 00416 0000000000
1449 2318N 07912W 00430 5022 302 007 218 218 010 00419 0000000000
1449. 2317N 07911W 00421 5024 340 004 198 198 008 00409 0000000100
1450 2315N 07910W 00432 5024 210 002 196 196 003 00419 0000000000
1450. 2314N 07909W 00424 5026 201 008 206 206 008 00410 0000000000
1451 2313N 07908W 00428 5025 214 014 220 220 015 00415 0000000000
1451. 2312N 07906W 00426 5023 204 015 214 214 017 00415 0000000000
1452 2311N 07905W 00426 5022 182 020 218 218 022 00416 0000000000

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF
ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA
PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT...AND A
NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING...IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS
NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP
CONVECTION...AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION. THERE IS STILL
A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO
BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE
GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AFTER ERNESTO MOVES
FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT IS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

SATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY
THUS FAR FROM LAND-BASED RADARS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
315/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THEN
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 23.3N 79.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.4N 80.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 26.3N 81.2W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.1W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z 30.9N 80.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/1200Z 39.5N 79.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1200Z 43.0N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH