TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[tailgater]

I think NHC has a hold on this now. if any thing it would move back to the right aittle. You can see on the vloop that it is being flaten on the west side. That tell me it would be going on the track it is on by the NHC if not to the right a tad. remember wobbles here and there will make a big diffence in it's track. east or west.

I see no flatening at all im not sure what your seeing.. Can you point out what you mean by flaten on the west side I see some flatening on the south side but not the west. not sure if I would call that flating on the south side just not good out flow.

this is what I was talking about. you can see it is coming oblong now

[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/9452/eid7.th.jpg]

I really don't think thats flatening just the odd shape of the system.

Definitely not flat

[wzrgirl1]

not to push it or anything but can someone answer my question about the sandbags, I am limited with time here and have to make sure i got the right ones

[gtalum]

FWIW, from the 5am to the 11am positions: .7N and .6W

5am: 22.6 N 78.9W
11am: 23.3N 79.5W

Seems to be on a more NWerly trek now than he was over Cuba, but maybe it's just me....

I'm glad to know I'm not insane. All this morning as people have been saying W or WNW I was seeing NW.

[caneman]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00605.html

Correct graphic

[storms in NC]

11:00AM postion.

Is your yellow the center you are saying?

[SouthFloridawx]

FWIW, from the 5am to the 11am positions: .7N and .6W

5am: 22.6 N 78.9W
11am: 23.3N 79.5W

Seems to be on a more NWerly trek now than he was over Cuba, but maybe it's just me....

I'm glad to know I'm not insane. All the while as people have been saying W or WNW I was seeing NW.

Since it has slowed down just a tad that may give it the appearance it is moving a little more to the west.
EDIT

[Toadstool]

So, it's moved west instead of East?

Does this mean the west coast of Florida will get it more than the East coast?

Is there a chance this could get back in the gulf and strengthen?

Floridians, what's it like there now? Are your winds picking up, etc?

It's a nice day so far in Ft. Lauderdale... slight breeze, partly cloudy, 85 degrees.

[gtalum]

not to push it or anything but can someone answer my question about the sandbags, I am limited with time here and have to make sure i got the right ones

The bags are used to block water, not absorb it. I think plastic bags would actually be better for that, but you probably can't reuse them as they'll tear easily.

[Blown Away]

FWIW, from the 5am to the 11am positions: .7N and .6W

5am: 22.6 N 78.9W
11am: 23.3N 79.5W

Seems to be on a more NWerly trek now than he was over Cuba, but maybe it's just me....

More convincing of the NNW turn:
8am: 22.8N 79.3W
11am: 23.3N 79.5W

.5N .2W since 8am!

[wzrgirl1]

not to push it or anything but can someone answer my question about the sandbags, I am limited with time here and have to make sure i got the right ones

The bags are used to block water, not absorb it. I think plastic bags would actually be better for that, but you probably can't reuse them as they'll tear easily.

ok so then they did give me the right ones thank you very much....back to filling them

[O Town]

Is your yellow the center you are saying?

No the red is the center the yellow is the convection around it. Thats how I am reading it anyways.

[Colossus]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL
BE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HeatherAKC]

Wind East at 17. 29.94 steady. Cloudy.

NW Miami-Dade

[StJoe]

not to push it or anything but can someone answer my question about the sandbags, I am limited with time here and have to make sure i got the right ones

The bags are used to block water, not absorb it. I think plastic bags would actually be better for that, but you probably can't reuse them as they'll tear easily.

You might have better luck going to the "Got a question" forum...But I agree that the plastic is used to block, not absorb the water like burlap.

[fci]

So, it's moved west instead of East?

Does this mean the west coast of Florida will get it more than the East coast?

Is there a chance this could get back in the gulf and strengthen?

Floridians, what's it like there now? Are your winds picking up, etc?

I think as said earlier, you should not concentrate on "the line".
Track of the center is nudged a bit west from before where it would be first east of Lake O, then across it and now looks to be west of it.

However, it looks like the major convection is east of the center in a very lopsided manner.

So, IMO; if you are west of the center you will not see much of the activity.
Seems like an East Coast and Center of the State event and not much for West Coast.

You are welcome to take it as you wish as my new roof is only partly complete and there are materials in my driveway

[theworld]

Current SST's near Ernie....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... ksst.shtml

[O Town]

not to push it or anything but can someone answer my question about the sandbags, I am limited with time here and have to make sure i got the right ones

The bags are used to block water, not absorb it. I think plastic bags would actually be better for that, but you probably can't reuse them as they'll tear easily.

I think the plastic will work just fine, even better like gtalum mentioned. Good luck.

[westmoon]

Ernie is going to see some very warm water thats for sure

[Patrick99]

Some of the warmest waters in the basin. Won't be over them for long, though. If Ernie was moving NW at 5mph, this would be something else entirely.

[KBBOCA]

not to push it or anything but can someone answer my question about the sandbags, I am limited with time here and have to make sure i got the right ones

I would think the sand conforms to the shape of the airspace between the water and the door and thus forms a barrier. Don't think it matters that the bags are plastic.