TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

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gatorcane
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#401 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:21 am

Sanibel wrote:Negative on NW heading.

I believe the LLC is seen in the SE corner of the main convection on Key West Long range radar clearly moving NW. You can tell it is the LLC because of its slower motion.

This hasn't even hit the hot part of the Gulf Stream. Expect a delay for reflection of the hot Gulf Stream SST's.


agreed it hasn't hit the really warm waters yet...still about 4-5 hours away.
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#402 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:22 am

tampastorm wrote:
cpdaman wrote:when is next recon


If the Key west radar is not showing a WNW movement I must be going blind, well just kidding there, but where is this north movement?


Weak stoms constant thro out false Eddys that appear to be Centers ...then the real one reforms again
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#403 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:22 am

Idiot here. I meant "Negative on WNW heading".

A correct read of the Key West radar shows the LLC pulsing NW in the SE edge of the main convection mass.

It is well into recurvature on the periphery of the High.
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#404 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:23 am

Sanibel wrote:Idiot here. I meant "Negative on WNW heading".

A correct read of the Key West radar shows the LLC pulsing NW in the SE edge of the main convection mass.


Richard Knabb just confirmed a NW movement, I don't think it will make it west of the western Southern Tip of Florida at this point....
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#405 Postby Droop12 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:24 am

Still in the process of building up an innner core. Needs more storms over the center in order for this to happen. Also, looks WNW to me, maybe he'll miss SFL and get into the gulf for a few more hours tonight? Landfall in the morning around Naples?
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#406 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:25 am

if this just had about 24 more hours over water...south florida would be in BIG trouble.
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#407 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:26 am

No way, no how, WNW. Forget about this.

Ernesto is on the NHC red line track right now.

Tracking NW.
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#408 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:26 am

its looking like it is trying to get that "buzz saw look" although we know the intensity is far from that -

winds have to start going up soon the way it is looking.
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#409 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:27 am

If this had hooked around the west side of Florida it would have had another 12 hours over 89* SST's.

(And then hit us)
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#410 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:27 am

Sanibel wrote:No way, no how, WNW. Forget about this.

Ernesto is on the NHC red line track right now.

Tracking NW.


Agreed.
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#411 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:27 am

Aquawind wrote:Waiting for the 12Z globals..

It's looking tight at the moment and with no major land masses to alter things it will be interesting to see the 12Z data as things are getting down to crunch time..

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif


Bamms even initate too far west..
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#412 Postby Droop12 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:28 am

Sanibel wrote:No way, no how, WNW. Forget about this.

Ernesto is on the NHC red line track right now.

Tracking NW.

Are differing opinions not aloud on this board? Maybe I missed it in the rule section...
Last edited by Droop12 on Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#413 Postby TampaFl » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:28 am

Sanibel wrote:No way, no how, WNW. Forget about this.

Ernesto is on the NHC red line track right now.

Tracking NW.


Link or map please. :D
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#414 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:28 am

gatorcane wrote:if this just had about 24 more hours over water...south florida would be in BIG trouble.


Agreed.. Given this open water in this enviroment we are talkin major intensification.. Hope no slow down occurs for any turn like so often is the case..
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#415 Postby fox13weather » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:28 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Colossus,

Not exactly, I did see subsequent updates following those and true, they did change their stance when the models started getting into better agreement and the NHC made it obvious that they were goign with the switch too. My point, was that they specifically said that Flrodia has nothing to worry about...not Florida SHOULDN'T have anything to worry about, or that we should still watch closely, or anything like that. They specifically dismissed the possibility. That's all I was saying. Of course they changed their tune when the odds went up, but I strongly feel that no media outlet should ever say that any group should not worry about a storm when the options are so very open early on. Many people really depend on those reports and can't check back for a few days. What if you decided to go camping for a week in the middle keys based on that call?

Don't get me wrong, I like the folks at 13 too, I jsut thought that was irresponsible at the time and if BayNews9 isn't your personal favorite, we can agree to disagree. :wink:


My job is clear. I am paid to interpret data and make my OWN forecast. I always defer to the NHC but am not afraid to interject my own thoughts and even disagree with their reasoning in the rare cases that I do. If I honestly beleive that an area has little to worry about from an approaching storm then I will say that. I completely understand that if I am proven wrong then I will have to pay the consequences which is usually in the form of reduced credibility. Weather consumers are smart enough now to check many sources. I want them to watch our station because I encourage all the mets to take a stand WITHOUT grandstanding. We are not trying to hit a homerun, we are just trying to make the best forecast possible. I have found that my viewers appreciate that and it has served us well for over 40 years.
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#416 Postby mettski » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:29 am

Sanibel wrote:No way, no how, WNW. Forget about this.

Ernesto is on the NHC red line track right now.

Tracking NW.


agreed. the nhc vis loop shows this clearly.
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#417 Postby tampastorm » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:29 am

Sanibel wrote:No way, no how, WNW. Forget about this.

Ernesto is on the NHC red line track right now.

Tracking NW.


You say this, all I am saying that everyone thinks it is going WNW, just opinions here relax
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#418 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:29 am

gatorcane wrote:Richard Knabb just confirmed a NW movement


Where/when did he confirm that? Thanks!
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#419 Postby Colossus » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:30 am

TreasureIslandFLGal, Roger that...I'm on Direct TV these days and I can't get bayNews9 ( (I use to watch them all the time)...no sweat on your assessment, and yes you are a lot like my wife in her remarks about the ProMet's making "absolute" statements too often...Best Regards!
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#420 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:31 am

Droop12 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:No way, no how, WNW. Forget about this.

Ernesto is on the NHC red line track right now.

Tracking NW.

Are differing opinions not aloud on this board? Maybe I missed it in the rule section...


When in doubt, I defer to the NHC. A part of the 11am advisory:

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
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