TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

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boca
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#461 Postby boca » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:51 am

If this goes up the west coast what will Palm Bch and Broward metro areas expect.
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#462 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:51 am

South FL is about to get the first squall line:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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#463 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:51 am

That's a tight buzzsaw Straits cyclone dvorak I would not want to be in front of if it had more time over water!

Whew! Real action now.

Would gamble hurricane on that alone.
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#464 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:52 am

hey gator, what are the sky conditions there in Miami, any clouds to the south?
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#465 Postby Colossus » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:53 am

Hey Fox13 do you have an approximate plot of the center of circulation?
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#466 Postby westmoon » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:53 am

Sanibel,

Did recon give pressure??
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#467 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:53 am

This coming VDM has got to be lower than 1008mb..
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#468 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:53 am

Look at this visible loop. You can get a better hint and idea of the LLC circulation and movement, and note the movement appears to be nearly due northwest, not really west-northwest as many have been stating. Also, you can see the effects of the trough slowly showing signs of eroding the mid-level Atlantic ridging, reducing the slight easterly shear over Ernesto.

As a side (unrelated) note, up go the back and side shutters at my house now... sturdy shutters...
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#469 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:53 am

Along the coast here in Boca Raton/Deerfield Beach, partly cloudy skies with some passing cumulus. To the south I can see higher "wispy" cirrus clouds from the outflow of Ernesto....

East winds at 10-15mph
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#470 Postby carve » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:53 am

Ernie is looking better...again i ask...what are the chances this goes through the keys and up the west coast??
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#471 Postby fox13weather » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:54 am

Colossus wrote:Hey Fox13 do you have an approximate plot of the center of circulation?


right now the only plot i have is around a turkey sandwich on my desk at home. heading into work for another busy day.
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#472 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:54 am

I can't believe this!!! Broward County emergency officials apparently got the run message and saying we will get only a moderate TS and winds won't be much of an issue.

Way too early to say that :grr: :grr: :grr:
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#473 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:55 am

LeeJet wrote:This is what Ernesto will look like in about 5-7 hours:

http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/movies/ ... 00zani.gif


Can you say "Irene"...More wind than her, though...IMHO, I really think Ernesto is going to be a freak storm...We will remeber him for years to come...
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#474 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:56 am

Ernie is looking better...again i ask...what are the chances this goes through the keys and up the west coast??



None, in my opinion.
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#475 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:56 am

fox13weather wrote:
Colossus wrote:Hey Fox13 do you have an approximate plot of the center of circulation?


right now the only plot i have is around a turkey sandwich on my desk at home. heading into work for another busy day.


HAHAHA, thanks for making some of us laugh today, we need it!!
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#476 Postby Colossus » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:56 am

fox13weather wrote:
Colossus wrote:Hey Fox13 do you have an approximate plot of the center of circulation?


right now the only plot i have is around a turkey sandwich on my desk at home. heading into work for another busy day.
Well make sure that the swirling mass of mayo's wave heights are in the same region as the toasted bread or the turkey sammie will be cutting a vortex down the side of your Fox13 blazer!! :D
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#477 Postby gtalum » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:57 am

carve wrote:Ernie is looking better...again i ask...what are the chances this goes through the keys and up the west coast??


While I wouldn't say it won't happen for sure, I'd say the chanes are extremely slim. Ernie has clearly started his turn.
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#478 Postby EmeraldCoast1 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:57 am

wxman57 wrote: I place the center near 23.7N/79.9W.


I came up with 23.9N 80.1W before I saw your post quoted. If this IS the ctr. it looks, to me, to be moving just north of west at present.
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storms in NC
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#479 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:57 am

No telling with this storm. It could be a strong TS or a low cat 1 when it gets to you all on the east coast of Fla
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#480 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:58 am

storms in NC wrote:No telling with this storm. It could be a strong TS or a low cat 1 when it gets to you all on the east coast of Fla


look at the outflow. It's really coming together. Shear is negligible, SSTs are extremely high and the UL has stopped avecting dry air into this.

Very impressive system in my opinion.
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