TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[tgenius]

25 page limit again...

[MiamiensisWx]

I've noticed this. Look at this visible loop. You can get a better hint and idea of the LLC circulation and movement, and note the movement appears to be nearly due northwest, not really west-northwest as many have been stating. Also, you can see the effects of the trough slowly showing signs of eroding the mid-level Atlantic ridging, reducing the slight easterly shear over Ernesto.

As a side (unrelated) note, up go the back and side shutters at my house now... sturdy shutters...

Any thoughts on this observation?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

fox13weather,

Please don't take my post as a personal attack on you. I never claimed that you have no credibility. (I have no clue who you even are.)

I just made an observation on what I saw on that station early on. That is all. I have already said that I watch you guys too to get your input. I posted my OPINION about what I felt was just an irresponsible statement that was made with no caveat at the time. A speech of coulds & shoulds taking up all your air time is not what I ever called for. Predicating with "we feel right now that x..." ending with "keep watching as things could change", does nto consititute a speech.

I also acknowledged that your channel did correct its path, just as EVERY station had to adjust. The difference I pointed out is that the simple caveat was missing, that was all.

You don't have to agree with me, its ok. I'll still check 13 for weather updates just like I check the rest of them.

p.s. many northerners new to Florida assume weather forecasters are as accurate as their northern counterparts that may have much simpler weather patterns to deal with. it just seems to me that you can make your own call and still let people know to be on guard and still pay attention as things do change, especially when trying to forecast tropical systems.

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing a center movement that could be closer to Miami now. Not sure.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

fox13,



-just finished my lunch here too.

Have a good day at work today!

[MiamiensisWx]

From sixth thread...

I think that loop reflects a fundamental difference of opinion in regards to where the LLC is located. Im seeing a circulation center to the SW of the larest area of convection. Im probably wrong but that is my opinion

Yes, you're right on the differences in opinion on the general location of the LLC. I personally believe it's where I indicated in my other post above (near 21.9N and 78.2W), based on visible synoptic indicators, the LLC relocation via RECON, and Key West radar. Just my thoughts on it based on good information.

[gtalum]

The movemenet between 8 AM and 11AM looked like Ernie was making a beeline for Miami.

[jpigott]

I'm seeing a center movement that could be closer to Miami now. Not sure.

This storm has had a history of center reformations, i wonder if the LLC may try to stack with the MLC to its NE, if it does i think Mia may take the brunt of this

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

that certainly wouldn't be good for Miami! -especially if many have already dismissed this as just a little rain storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it goes more towards Miami, that might be bad news for the East Coast, because the storm will be further east and more time over water as it gets ready for its 2nd landfall.

[SunnyThoughts]

I see both areas of circulation. IF the main circulation is headed towards S fla...what will become of the one on the SW side?

[Praxus]

Wow latest IR pic shows its really picking up. Looks like rapid intensification
is a reality. But how far will it go...

[ConvergenceZone]

another thing we we probably aren't thinking about is that if it DOES come ashore as a minimal hurricane at 75mph, the higher chances then that the 2nd landfall will also be a hurricane as it will probably still be a tropical storm when it exits florida.

[FritzPaul]

It is hard to see the center this far off on radar due to attenuation (Basically means that you cannot look accurately past the thunder storms that are closer to the radar; maybe someone can explain it better than me!)

[Evil Jeremy]

i expect winds to pick up to 50 MPH at 2 PM EDT now.

[Ground_Zero_92]

that certainly wouldn't be good for Miami! -especially if many have already dismissed this as just a little rain storm.

I'll say this. Never before have I seen so many people getting ready so early before an approaching system. As of Sunday afternoon, people have been getting gas, water and supplies. I think that last season is still very clear in everyone's mind. Too bad it takes a season like 2005 for a lot of people to get it. But however way it happens, I see the people in South Florida much better prepared this time around.

I hope the steam bath of our waters in the Florida Straights don't fuel Ernesto beyond a TS.

Good luck everyone and stay safe!

[storms in NC]

My thinking is maybe a min hurricane to the east coast of Fla and ride up the east coast into SC and NC as a Min hurricane

[boca]

Cape Verde, why do you think the center is at 21.9N and 78.2W. The center of the ball of convection might become the new center again.

[Pigsnibble]

In the link below:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

What is the significance of the HDW-Low,-Med, and -High ?

Any of these steering currents....if so, which ones affect Ernesto ?

Thanks

[Droop12]

How much longer realistically, does Ernie have over open waters? My best guess would be about 12 hours.