TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[theworld]

IMHO... its jogging WNW and much improved.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... tte=ir.pal

[gatorcane]

The funny thing is that the big effects won't happen until it gets dark later today...so the reporters are wasting their time right now as they aren't seeing much yet

[MiamiensisWx]

Cape Verde, why do you think the center is at 21.9N and 78.2W. The center of the ball of convection might become the new center again.

I think the LLC is the vicinity of the location and coordinates I mentioned because the circulation and low-level turning on the NESDIS visible loops, along with RECON, indicate that it may be a likely location for a possible LLC.

[THead]

How much longer realistically, does Ernie have over open waters? My best guess would be about 12 hours.

Sounds about right at the current speed, about 120 miles south of the base of the keys. 10 hours or so.

I don't like the way he is starting to look, pretty good looking cyclone on key west radar, and the vis loop looking better too. If the pressure is still 1008, they're in the wrong place, IMO.

[tgenius]

Here's a question... when looking at Radar, should we be looking at Base or Composite reflectivity? I know during regular T-Storms its more a base look, but I thought I read somewhere once your supposed to use Composite?

[Droop12]

Yea, I agree. I hope I'll make it home in time from work to catch the landfall.

[tgenius]

Will Ernesto get influenced by Diurnal Max tonight, even though he will likely be over land (unless it slows down forward speed)

[gatorcane]

How much longer realistically, does Ernie have over open waters? My best guess would be about 12 hours.

Sounds about right at the current speed, about 120 miles south of the base of the keys. 10 hours or so.

I don't like the way he is starting to look, pretty good looking cyclone on key west radar, and the vis loop looking better too. If the pressure is still 1008, they're in the wrong place, IMO.

Based on the way he is looking, pressure will drop accordingly but there is usually a delay so I would expect very shortly it will start dropping fairly steadily all the way up until and even through landfall...

The everglades are flat and very much like the ocean....

[Droop12]

I think theres a chance Ernie may slow down, I mean look what he's been doing the last few days. Starting and stopping. We'll see though, I dunno.

[CocoCreek]

I don't know where the real center is anymore, but if it is where I think it is, according to the radar out of Key West, it hasn't moved all that much in the past 20-30 minutes or so.

[storms in NC]

It is going more North with a jog to the west now you can see it in the last few frame of the loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[Droop12]

Yea, I see 2 or 3 LLC's, if thats the case, he may not strengthen at all.

[THead]

Here's something to think about. Say it reaches Cat 1 status just a couple of hours before landfall. What does the NHC do then? Issue hurricane warnings when its 3 hours out? Point being, there are ALOT of people that have to work unless there is a hurricane warning, not a TS warning. Luckily in that regard, most people will be home for the landfall of this bugger.

[feederband]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[gatorcane]

I see the LLC in that radar loop thanks!

[gtalum]

On visible, the whole thing takes a big step north in the last frame.

[Bgator]

I see the LLC in that radar loop thanks!

I see it to but its near impossible to see what direction its going, its not long enough, the loop that is...I see a NW than a small jump to the north at the end...

[Droop12]

Which one? I see 2 or 3, maybe its just a broad area right now which would explain the higher pressure.

[MiamiensisWx]

To back up my observations and opinions on the location of the possible LLC, based on RECON observations and radar and satellite indications, here is where I think an LLC may be located and why...



Any thoughts? Who agrees? Also, RECON indicates the LLC may have relocated to that location vicinity.

EDIT - Fixed image size.

[Droop12]

I wish the pic was bigger...