TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[CronkPSU]

not sure it is slowing down as much as the center is relocating a bit

[Bgator]

Latest advisory did not follow Recon Center fix,

Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...23.9 N...79.7 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
VEry weird..

[gtalum]

At the 2 PM advisory it looks as if the storm is a tiny bit north and east of the 11 AM forecast path.

[THead]

Well, if thats were the center is, this thing is done strengthening. All the convection well away from that area, and moving away quickly.

I dunno. On radar you can see a band forming nicely coming out of the north of the "center", sweeping around the east side and SW down into cuba. The banding is starting to look more impressive in general on radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

I agree, banding looks nice...but its lacks one main LLC. I see all kinds of swirls in there. Until it picks one, I cant see much strengthening. Now, if there was one solid core with a defined center, I think we'd be seeing some pretty rapid strengthing.

True, and even if what we're seeing is truly THE LLC it is broad, maybe 50 miles wide. Probably not too conducive to rapid intensification. Hopefully no more than a strong TS at landfall. Either way, its a whole different ballgame watching this come in from Georgia.........but my heart is still with everyone down in FLA. Good luck all!

[curtadams]

Please see my post above for the last center fix. It has slowed down.

Beware overinterpreting recon at the moment. From the vortex:
LARGE 12 NM LGT/VAR WND CTR
i.e., ill-defined center. They're forced to basically throw a dart in a 12 mile diameter area.

[gtalum]

The last frame on visible satellite seems to show another jump NNW or N.

[Evil Jeremy]

ok, no more hurricane possibilities.

[gatorcane]

ok, no more hurricane possibilities.

no chance is still there and some bands could have gusts to hurricane strength...

Hurricane watches are still up.

[Aquawind]

Getting some weather in the keys alrighty..pressures are starting to drop as well..

Station MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL -.04inches with a new ob coming in soon.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... 250&time=3

[curtadams]

Radar is still high-altitude and Ernie's getting sheared. You can't spot the center with radar now - only the center of the outflow. Same with IR. Also, hurricanes get bigger as they go up so don't use long-distance radar to guestimate center size.

[gatorcane]

Getting some weather in the keys alrighty..pressures are starting to drop as well..

Station MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL -.04inches with a new ob coming in soon.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... 250&time=3

thanks Paul I would expect the pressures to start dropping as it gets more and more organized this afternoon and into the night.

[cinlfla]

I'm so confused now some are saying it has slowed, I'm reading other comments where its says ernesto his moving to fast. Do anyone know which one it is? For Real!!!

[Bgator]

The last VDM says the center should be more NE and they estimated the surface winds to be 45kts, i wonder why the NHC did not listen to them..Anyone know?

[nequad]

Best pressure falls are between station LONF1 - Long Key, FL, and station MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

if this holds true look for the center to pass perhaps between those two stations...which would appear to be a little east of the official forecast.

[ConvergenceZone]

okay, i take that back about it being a hurricane for the east coast. Now that I look at the maps, it's just not going to be off shore long enough for that to happen. , and we don't know what condition it will be in when it exits Florida. Since it's still 45 mph and was expected to be higher by now, there may not be much of it left at all when it exits Florida.

[gtalum]

I'm so confused now some are saying it has slowed, I'm reading other comments where its says ernesto his moving to fast. Do anyone know which one it is? For Real!!!

The NHC says it's still moving 12 mph. Slightly slower than before (13 mph) but not much. I think the slowness people are seeing is mostly just an illusion caused by the storm making its turn.

[Canelaw99]

FWIW:

8am: 22.8N 79.3W
2pm: 23.9N 79.7W

So in 6 hours, that's 1.1N and .4W....interesting that they're calling it NW, when to me that should be more NNW.....

[gtalum]

I think the NHC track will move back east a little bit at 5 pm.

[LanceW]

FWIW:

8am: 22.8N 79.3W
2pm: 23.9N 79.7W

So in 6 hours, that's 1.1N and .4W....interesting that they're calling it NW, when to me that should be more NNW.....

I believe some of that is estimated center and possible relocations of the center.

[westmoon]

I think we might have hit the wobble stage