TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[gatorcane]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it will be like any other day, what I'm saying is that is what it is, which is a weak TS. The rain will cause problems in some areas, but not the wind.

I've been in 60-80mph gusts several times - they knock out power and trees with no problem.

[Damar91]

Sorry, guys... I'll eat crow... but the strongest I see this getting is 55-60 MPH... and Damar... the 55-60 would be in isolated areas... and we get thunderstorms with that kind of winds quite regularly here in the FLA...

I know that, I've lived here all my life, point is that with the condition of some of the homes down here, 50-60mph winds sustained for even a little while could do alot of damage.

[Grease Monkey]

I think it also depends on how big ern gets. That will determine how large area will be affected with strong winds.

[Noles2006]

Yeah, we do... a few times a year.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Nope Richard Knabb just said in the 2pm advisory

THIS WILL NOT JUST BE A RAIN EVENT

please don't underestimate Ernesto.

Where do you see this? The 2pm advisory says "FORECASTER PASCH" and does not have the above quote... ??

[gatorcane]

Nope Richard Knabb just said in the 2pm advisory

THIS WILL NOT JUST BE A RAIN EVENT

please don't underestimate Ernesto.

Where do you see this? The 2pm advisory says "FORECASTER PASCH" and does not have the above quote... ??

On TV channel 7 Miami-Dade station

[caneseddy]

Nope Richard Knabb just said in the 2pm advisory

THIS WILL NOT JUST BE A RAIN EVENT

please don't underestimate Ernesto.

Where do you see this? The 2pm advisory says "FORECASTER PASCH" and does not have the above quote... ??

I think he may have meant when he was interviewed on TV since Knabb has been on TV most of the day being interviewed by the local news

[SouthFloridawx]

You know, it doesn't take a Cat 5 with 200 mph winds to be dangerous. A tropical storm with 60mph winds dumping 15 inches of rain can be just as deadly. I think some of us need to stop and think about how fast 50-65mph really is.

Your are 100% right.

[Jim Cantore]

Lol! Heather Tesch on TWC just said the pressure was 106mb, that makes it more intense then Wilma!

[Jim Cantore]

You know, it doesn't take a Cat 5 with 200 mph winds to be dangerous. A tropical storm with 60mph winds dumping 15 inches of rain can be just as deadly. I think some of us need to stop and think about how fast 50-65mph really is.

Your are 100% right.

I don't have to say much here, one word.

Allison

[gtsmith]

getting a nice little squall out of the east right now in west palm beach...

[theworld]

anybody have a map of where the Gulf stream is?

oops, the site moved to.. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/skill.html

here is the stream...

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_n ... IASSP1.gif

[Droop12]

Looks like one center seems to be taking over on radar, anyone else see that? Not to far from the Fl. Coast though, unless it slows I'd say landfall in the Keys at about 8pm tonight.

[CronkPSU]

Lol! Heather Tesch on TWC just said the pressure was 106mb, that makes it more intense then Wilma!

wow, that is even stronger than the 250mb in the classic TV Movie Cat 6!!!!

[wxman57]

Here's a radar with 1 deg lat/lon lines. Center at 1813Z 24.15N/80.05W

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto61.gif

[gtalum]

Wow, it's about halfway across the straits.

[Droop12]

Thanks Wxman, thats exactly where I thought it was.

[gatorcane]

looks like Ernesto is elongating a streching from NW to SE. Shear?

[Zackiedawg]

First rain band reaching Coral Springs...the view from the front of my office, looking east:



Gonna be raining in about 2-5 minutes.

[Sanibel]

The radar is showing disorganization.

The center looks like it could be trying to reform further east and stay off Miami over water. But I'm probably wrong on that.

Not the radar image you would see with any kind of rapid intensification.

2006 continues to weaken storms.