TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[Loring]

and we get thunderstorms with that kind of winds quite regularly here in the FLA...

we do? im not sure ive ever seen sustained winds of 60mph that wasnt during a tropical event. i suppose you can link us to a few such events, yea?

once again... there are STILL people in south florida with tarps on their roofs from wilma.

[shawn67]

Here's a radar with 1 deg lat/lon lines. Center at 1813Z 24.15N/80.05W

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto61.gif

Thank you

[ronjon]

I believe the various opinions regarding the center of the storm are because we have a decoupled storm at the moment - we have an MLC further SW then the reported LLC - in fact, there may be multiple small vortices spinning around the main MLC. Until the MLC and LLC link up, we'll have a fairly modest storm. If Ernie has enough time over water, we should get an more vertically stacked storm and perhaps rapid intensification.

[Brent]

Here's a radar with 1 deg lat/lon lines. Center at 1813Z 24.15N/80.05W

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto61.gif

WOW.

It's going to run out of time before it can do much more.

[Droop12]

Boy, you change your tune often Sanibel.

[Sanibel]

That radar center is east of NHC track and flirts with staying offshore and over water (and you know what that means).

[storms in NC]

That radar center is east of NHC track and flirts with staying offshore and over water (and you know what that means).

Out to sea?

[Sanibel]

You want to see a change of tune watch what this thing does if it relflects the Gulf Stream energy after a delay...

Especially if it stays offshore.

By the way "Droop" weren't you saying it was headed WNW?

[shawn67]

I believe the various opinions regarding the center of the storm are because we have a decoupled storm at the moment - we have an MLC further SW then the reported LLC - in fact, there may be multiple small vortices spinning around the main MLC. Until the MLC and LLC link up, we'll have a fairly modest storm. If Ernie has enough time over water, we should get an more vertically stacked storm and perhaps rapid intensification.

I believe that is exactly what was happening earlier (and why Cape verde and I were having conflicti ng posts) but now a looking at the Key West short range radar loop shows one circulation center. I think the organization continues to improve.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Stormcenter]

If you didn't know any better you would think Ernesto was headed to the GOM looking at this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[jpigott]

I believe the various opinions regarding the center of the storm are because we have a decoupled storm at the moment - we have an MLC further SW then the reported LLC - in fact, there may be multiple small vortices spinning around the main MLC. Until the MLC and LLC link up, we'll have a fairly modest storm. If Ernie has enough time over water, we should get an more vertically stacked storm and perhaps rapid intensification.

I agree 100%, until this storm can stack vertically and establish a core i doubt we will see anything more than a 50mph tropical storm, and i have serious doubts this will be able to stack

[Droop12]

I see one center exactly where Wxmans image has it. Looks like the only one for now.

[curtadams]

Here's a radar with 1 deg lat/lon lines. Center at 1813Z 24.15N/80.05W
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto61.gif

That's an ULC and we've seen several ULCs get generated from the LLC and then blown off. It might not even be attached to the LLC - hard to tell - and it's certainly displaced.

[UpTheCreek]

That radar center is east of NHC track and flirts with staying offshore and over water (and you know what that means).

Out to sea?

Yeah, out to sea and straight to you and me! lol

[shawn67]

Here's a radar with 1 deg lat/lon lines. Center at 1813Z 24.15N/80.05W
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto61.gif

That's an ULC and we've seen several ULCs get generated from the LLC and then blown off. It might not even be attached to the LLC - hard to tell - and it's certainly displaced.

Are you trying to say that is a displaced vortice

[Solaris]

Heya guyz,

you underestimate the deep-routed force of nature. ERNESTO just arrived in the vincity of the high-tropospheric low which created some shear after the storm left Cuba.
Then, there's enough tropical cyclone heat potential in the waters south of Florida.
Therefore, ERNESTO improved significantly in the last 2-3 hours (central convection tower, developing outflow banding features, symmetric presentation).
ERNESTO will enjoy these formidable condition in the next 6 hours. Just to remind you what is possible: WILMA lost more than 50 mb in 4 hours. This is unlikely to happen, but i wouldnt be surprised to see a Cat1 storm / 990 mb / 80 mph make landfall in FL.

cause for concern also should be the possibility indicated by some models that ERNESTO may cruise up along a significant part of the FL west coast til the wobble to the right.

[Javlin]

If you didn't know any better you would think Ernesto was headed to the GOM looking at this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Yea looks to be moving kinda fast for a right hand turn.Hey this thing has been all over the place.

[rockyman]

If you didn't know any better you would think Ernesto was headed to the GOM looking at this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

According to most of these models, it is! (but just for a little while)

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

[LeeJet]

How strong were the max. sustained winds in Miami for Katrina and Wilma? What were the highest gusts?

[boca]

Why aren't the pressures dropping its no longer along the Cuban coast and the storm is in 86°f water temps.Storm systems this year just can't get their act together