TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[jasons2k]

I just don't see what you guys are seeing. It doesn't look so obvious it's heading for key largo in my opinion.

THANK YOU.

Maybe Islamorada.

[gtalum]

Put another quater in..

I guess we'll find out who's right in a few hours.

I think it won't go beyond Florida Bay before landfalling on the peninsula.

[miamicanes177]

Could come inland as far west as Naples

there is 100% zero chance of this coming inland that far to the west.

[Brent]

Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Toward the SW tip of Florida. Could come inland as far west as Naples, but there is nothing near the center in the way of major squalls, so don't focus on the center. H3aviest squalls are now moving ashore into the upper Keys.

I'm watching the loop too and that sounds about right.

[ocala]

Looking at a 4 hour composite loop of the Miami and Keys Radar the convection has grown considerably. There is a "eye' feature visible but it's hard to detect the center. Its on a NW course which should take it just south of Key Largo near Taverneir and then brush southern Dade and Coliier counties.
At least that's what I see.

[tracyswfla]

Could come inland as far west as Naples

there is 100% zero chance of this coming inland that far to the west.

No disrespect, but did you really just challenge a educated, professional met?

[tampastorm]

Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I do I dare say west...ish

[bjackrian]

I just don't see what you guys are seeing. It doesn't look so obvious it's heading for key largo in my opinion.

THANK YOU.

Maybe Islamorada.

Exactly. I see it going about halfway between Key Largo and Isla Morada using both Key West and Miami radars. Incidentally the Southeast regional radar gives a bit more perspective, I think: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[edbri871]

Could come inland as far west as Naples

there is 100% zero chance of this coming inland that far to the west.

Wow thats a rather unproffessional statement....

[superfly]

The satellite presentation is great but has not translated to strengthening per recon.

[Brent]

FWIW... NASA has stopped moving the shuttle indoors.

[carve]

It sure does look west..ish to me

[gtalum]

That Southeast regional radar makes the movement pretty clear. NW, along or very close to the NHC track.

[tampastorm]

Could come inland as far west as Naples

there is 100% zero chance of this coming inland that far to the west.

????????????????????

[Zackiedawg]

Amateur here...but I am seeing what appears to be the true center of the storm just underneath and to the west of the big 'eye' clearing. I'm assuming that big hole isn't actually the storm's center?...correct me if I'm wrong.

And if the circulation I am seeing is the actual storm center, it looks to be tracking just a hair west of NW...which would seem to put the center of the storm just east of Marathon as it crosses the keys, and just to the immediate east of the southern protrusion of the Florida peninsula near the west end. It would seem like it would track up into the glades, veering closer to Naples than to Ft. Lauderdale, straighten to the north avoiding crossing the west coast, then track up over Lake O and veer back to the NNE exiting between Palm Coast and St. Augustine.

Just an amateur prediction...I'd love to get any comments or corrections if I'm wrong.

[carve]

Could come inland as far west as Naples

there is 100% zero chance of this coming inland that far to the west.

????????????????????

Zero chance.....not a really bright statement..who would of thought 4 days ago it would hit Flor. and not the gulf coast??

[Toadstool]

FWIW... NASA has stopped moving the shuttle indoors.

I saw that... that goes against their explicit policies, so it's pretty amazing they reversed their decision. I know this mission is already delayed and vital, but leaving the shuttle out in a tropical storm when those heat tiles can be damaged just by foam is probably going to be controversial.

[boca]

I'm guessing a Isamorada, Flamingo type track then a northward bent just before Marco Island.

[feederband]

Amateur here...but I am seeing what appears to be the true center of the storm just underneath and to the west of the big 'eye' clearing. I'm assuming that big hole isn't actually the storm's center?...correct me if I'm wrong.

And if the circulation I am seeing is the actual storm center, it looks to be tracking just a hair west of NW...which would seem to put the center of the storm just east of Marathon as it crosses the keys, and just to the immediate east of the southern protrusion of the Florida peninsula near the west end. It would seem like it would track up into the glades, veering closer to Naples than to Ft. Lauderdale, straighten to the north avoiding crossing the west coast, then track up over Lake O and veer back to the NNE exiting between Palm Coast and St. Augustine.

Just an amateur prediction...I'd love to get any comments or corrections if I'm wrong.

Thats what I'm looking at...

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah I would be hesitant about saying 0% chance of ANYTHING anymore considering whats happened the last few days IMO.