Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[boca]

Why aren't the pressures dropping its no longer along the Cuban coast and the storm is in 86°f water temps.Storm systems this year just can't get their act together.

[Thunder44]

000

SXXX50 KNHC 291806

SXXX50

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 37 KNHC

1752. 2417N 08015W 00399 5028 040 022 224 224 023 00382 0000000000

1753 2418N 08017W 00395 5029 032 029 226 226 035 00378 0000000000

1753. 2419N 08018W 00405 5025 041 039 216 216 042 00391 0000000000

1754 2420N 08019W 00415 5021 044 035 208 208 037 00405 0000000000

1754. 2421N 08020W 00395 5021 037 033 206 206 033 00385 0000000100

1755 2422N 08021W 00396 5021 030 034 222 222 034 00386 0000000000

1755. 2423N 08023W 00396 5020 030 034 222 222 034 00387 0000000000

1756 2424N 08024W 00398 5019 034 033 222 222 034 00390 0000000000

1756. 2425N 08025W 00396 5018 035 033 222 222 034 00389 0000000000

1757 2426N 08026W 00396 5017 037 033 218 218 034 00391 0000000000

1757. 2427N 08027W 00396 5016 037 032 220 220 032 00391 0000000000

1758 2428N 08028W 00397 5015 039 032 218 218 032 00393 0000000000

1758. 2429N 08030W 00396 5014 036 031 216 216 031 00393 0000000000

1759 2430N 08031W 00397 5013 039 031 218 218 031 00396 0000000000

1759. 2431N 08032W 00395 5012 043 030 218 218 030 00395 0000000000

1800 2432N 08033W 00397 5011 044 030 220 220 030 00397 0000000000

1800. 2433N 08034W 00396 5009 044 030 220 220 030 00398 0000000000

1801 2435N 08036W 00397 5009 043 029 220 220 029 00399 0000000000

1801. 2436N 08037W 00395 5008 043 027 220 220 028 00399 0000000000

1802 2437N 08038W 00397 5007 050 029 224 224 029 00401 0000000000

NNNN






000

SXXX50 KNHC 291813

SXXX50



AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 38 KNHC

1802. 2438N 08039W 00396 5006 052 028 226 226 029 00401 0000000000

1803 2439N 08041W 00397 5005 050 029 226 226 030 00403 0000000000

1803. 2440N 08042W 00395 5005 050 027 226 226 029 00402 0000000000

1804 2441N 08043W 00397 5005 052 026 226 226 027 00404 0000000000

1804. 2442N 08044W 00396 5004 050 026 226 226 028 00403 0000000000

1805 2443N 08046W 00397 5003 053 027 226 226 028 00405 0000000000

1805. 2444N 08047W 00395 5003 053 027 226 226 027 00404 0000000000

1806 2445N 08048W 00397 5002 052 027 224 224 027 00407 0000000000

1806. 2446N 08049W 00396 5002 059 027 226 226 028 00406 0000000000

1807 2448N 08051W 00396 5001 060 027 230 218 028 00406 0000000000

1807. 2449N 08052W 00397 5001 059 028 226 226 028 00408 0000000000

1808 2450N 08053W 00396 5000 062 028 232 212 028 00407 0000000000

1808. 2451N 08055W 00395 0000 062 028 234 214 030 00407 0000000000

1809 2452N 08056W 00397 0001 060 029 228 212 030 00409 0000000000

1809. 2453N 08057W 00396 0001 055 031 226 214 031 00409 0000000000

1810 2454N 08058W 00396 0001 056 030 228 214 030 00409 0000000000

1810. 2455N 08100W 00396 0002 053 032 234 208 033 00409 0000000000

1811 2456N 08101W 00397 0002 053 031 234 210 032 00411 0000000000

1811. 2457N 08102W 00396 0002 055 032 226 220 034 00410 0000000000

1812 2459N 08104W 00398 0002 061 036 228 218 036 00412 0000000000

NNNN






000

SXXX50 KNHC 291826

SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 291822

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 39 KNHC

1812. 2500N 08105W 00395 0003 066 036 222 216 037 00410 0000000000

1813 2501N 08106W 00397 0004 064 035 222 216 037 00413 0000000000

1813. 2502N 08107W 00395 0004 059 034 228 218 035 00411 0000000000

1814 2503N 08109W 00398 0004 063 026 226 226 029 00413 0000000000

1814. 2504N 08110W 00396 0004 069 026 232 232 027 00412 0000000000

1815 2505N 08111W 00394 0003 061 025 240 230 026 00408 0000000000

1815. 2506N 08113W 00396 0003 058 023 240 234 023 00411 0000000000

1816 2508N 08114W 00396 0003 063 024 240 236 024 00410 0000000000

1816. 2509N 08115W 00396 0003 064 024 240 232 025 00411 0000000000

1817 2510N 08117W 00396 0004 067 023 240 234 024 00412 0000000000

1817. 2510N 08118W 00398 0004 063 022 240 232 023 00414 0000000000

1818 2510N 08120W 00394 0004 057 023 240 230 023 00409 0000000000

1818. 2509N 08121W 00398 0006 059 021 240 234 022 00415 0000000000

1819 2507N 08122W 00395 0005 053 019 240 236 020 00411 1101000000

1819. 2505N 08121W 00397 0004 053 020 240 232 020 00412 1101000000

1820 2504N 08121W 00399 0004 041 015 232 232 018 00414 1101000000

1820. 2502N 08121W 00394 0003 038 019 234 234 021 00409 1101000000

1821 2501N 08121W 00396 0003 039 022 238 234 023 00411 1101000000

1821. 2459N 08121W 00395 0003 047 024 240 232 024 00409 1101000000

1822 2457N 08120W 00397 0004 050 022 238 234 024 00413 1101000000

NNNN

[otowntiger]

Wow! I don't get it. The satellite image keeps improving but the winds are minimal and the pressure rises 3 millibars? Amazing. This is one odd little storm. (emphasis on little and also weak- so far not at all deserving of the hype.)

The hype is based on the storm's potential, given the very circumstances you find so interesting and odd. It would be hype if there was no justification for concern, though if it does not strengthen I expect lots of Monday morning quarterbacking on here directed at NHC

Notice I said "so far" not deserving of the hype. But I agree with you, it is definitely an inexact science. Gotta be very frustrating to those in the profession.

[Scott_inVA]

Don't know if Windrunner is updating this afternoon at Mid-Atlantic, but current recco is online with links to translate if needed.

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/recon.htm

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 40 KNHC

1822. 2456N 08120W 00396 0004 050 024 238 230 025 00412 1101000000

1823 2454N 08120W 00394 0002 049 026 236 232 026 00410 1101000000

1823. 2452N 08120W 00395 0003 050 025 236 232 025 00409 0000000000

1824 2451N 08119W 00396 0002 050 025 232 232 026 00409 0000000000

1824. 2449N 08119W 00399 0002 045 024 228 228 025 00411 0000000000

1825 2447N 08119W 00395 0002 048 025 218 218 030 00408 0000000000

1825. 2446N 08119W 00395 0002 051 028 214 214 029 00408 0000000000

1826 2444N 08119W 00397 0001 050 030 214 214 032 00409 0000000000

1826. 2442N 08118W 00397 0001 044 028 214 214 030 00409 0000000000

1827 2441N 08118W 00395 0001 050 031 216 216 033 00406 0000000000

1827. 2439N 08118W 00396 5000 051 032 214 214 033 00406 0000000000

1828 2437N 08118W 00398 5001 054 034 218 218 034 00408 0000000000

1828. 2436N 08118W 00396 5001 051 033 202 202 033 00405 0000000000

1829 2434N 08117W 00396 5002 050 033 206 206 034 00405 0000000000

1829. 2432N 08117W 00397 5003 049 028 216 216 028 00404 0000000000

1830 2431N 08117W 00394 5003 047 028 216 216 030 00401 0000000000

1830. 2429N 08117W 00398 5004 045 025 212 212 028 00405 0000000000

1831 2427N 08116W 00397 5004 046 025 218 218 025 00404 0000000000

1831. 2426N 08116W 00397 5004 046 026 220 220 027 00403 0000000000

1832 2424N 08116W 00397 5004 045 025 222 216 025 00403 0000000000

NNNN

[Thunder44]

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 41 KNHC

1832. 2422N 08116W 00396 5004 047 025 226 216 026 00402 0000000000

1833 2421N 08116W 00396 5005 042 023 220 220 024 00402 0000000000

1833. 2419N 08115W 00397 5005 034 022 220 220 023 00403 0000000000

1834 2417N 08115W 00395 5004 030 023 224 222 023 00402 0000000000

1834. 2415N 08115W 00396 5005 030 024 224 222 025 00402 0000000000

1835 2414N 08115W 00396 5005 032 024 224 224 025 00402 0000000000

1835. 2412N 08114W 00397 5005 031 025 222 222 026 00402 0000000000

1836 2410N 08114W 00394 5006 026 025 204 204 026 00398 0000000000

1836. 2409N 08114W 00399 5006 029 024 224 224 025 00404 0000000000

1837 2407N 08114W 00396 5006 028 026 224 224 027 00400 0000000000

1837. 2405N 08114W 00397 5006 031 026 224 222 026 00401 0000000000

1838 2403N 08113W 00395 5006 030 023 222 220 024 00399 0000000000

1838. 2402N 08113W 00397 5007 028 024 224 218 025 00401 0000000000

1839 2400N 08113W 00396 5007 022 020 220 220 021 00400 0000000000

1839. 2358N 08113W 00396 5008 023 020 220 220 021 00398 0000000000

1840 2357N 08113W 00395 5008 015 017 226 226 018 00398 0000000000

1840. 2355N 08112W 00397 5008 015 018 226 226 019 00399 0000000000

1841 2353N 08112W 00396 5008 008 017 230 226 018 00399 0000000000

1841. 2352N 08112W 00397 5008 010 017 228 224 017 00399 0000000000

1842 2350N 08112W 00396 5008 360 016 228 228 018 00398 0000000000

NNNN

[craptacular]

This is very strange the last fixes where far apart in about a hour and NHC positions are off from the recon fixes.

I think both the 14:43 and the 16:39 VDMs are suspect. In both cases, looking at the obs, there are two different short periods where you get a big shift in winds. The VDMs were both for the first point, although the wind shifts got bigger less than 10 minutes later. They either didn't find a clear center, or just missed it. The 17:43 VDM seemed to be much cleaner ... you got one big wind shift.

[Thunder44]

This is very strange the last fixes where far apart in about a hour and NHC positions are off from the recon fixes.

I think both the 14:43 and the 16:39 VDMs are suspect. In both cases, looking at the obs, there are two different short periods where you get a big shift in winds. The VDMs were both for the first point, although the wind shifts got bigger less than 10 minutes later. They either didn't find a clear center, or just missed it. The 17:43 VDM seemed to be much cleaner ... you got one big wind shift.

Yes, I think the 17:43 fix was the correct one.

[Thunder44]

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 42 KNHC
1842. 2348N 08111W 00396 5008 001 016 224 224 018 00398 0000000000
1843 2347N 08111W 00396 5008 358 017 228 228 018 00398 0000000000
1843. 2345N 08111W 00396 5008 004 018 232 224 019 00398 0000000000
1844 2343N 08111W 00398 5008 005 018 230 230 018 00401 0000000000
1844. 2342N 08111W 00397 5008 002 017 230 230 018 00399 0000000000
1845 2340N 08110W 00396 5008 356 018 230 230 018 00398 0000000000
1845. 2338N 08110W 00397 5008 359 017 230 230 018 00399 0000000000
1846 2336N 08110W 00396 5008 358 017 230 230 018 00398 0000000000
1846. 2335N 08110W 00396 5008 003 015 226 226 016 00398 0000000000
1847 2333N 08109W 00397 5009 001 016 222 222 017 00398 0000000000
1847. 2331N 08109W 00396 5009 356 017 226 226 019 00398 0000000000
1848 2330N 08109W 00396 5009 350 016 230 230 016 00398 0000000000
1848. 2328N 08109W 00393 5009 348 016 222 222 017 00395 0000000000
1849 2326N 08109W 00399 5009 350 016 228 222 017 00400 0000000000
1849. 2325N 08108W 00395 5008 351 017 230 218 017 00397 0000000000
1850 2323N 08108W 00397 5009 349 017 228 228 017 00399 0000000000
1850. 2321N 08108W 00396 5009 338 017 228 228 017 00398 0000000000
1851 2320N 08108W 00397 5009 345 017 230 230 017 00398 0000000000
1851. 2318N 08107W 00396 5009 347 015 230 230 016 00397 0000000000
1852 2317N 08106W 00399 5009 346 015 230 230 017 00401 0000000000
NNNN

[Thunder44]

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 43 KNHC
1852. 2318N 08105W 00395 5010 350 015 234 224 017 00395 0000000000
1853 2319N 08104W 00396 5010 353 016 230 224 016 00397 0000000000
1853. 2320N 08103W 00397 5011 358 015 230 218 015 00397 0000000000
1854 2321N 08101W 00396 5011 355 013 228 226 013 00395 0000000000
1854. 2322N 08100W 00396 5012 352 014 230 222 014 00395 0000000000
1855 2323N 08059W 00397 5012 346 016 230 228 016 00396 0000000000
1855. 2325N 08058W 00396 5012 346 014 230 230 016 00394 0000000000
1856 2325N 08057W 00396 5012 351 013 226 226 013 00394 0000000000
1856. 2326N 08056W 00396 5012 350 012 228 222 013 00394 0000000000
1857 2328N 08054W 00396 5013 345 012 230 230 013 00394 0000000000
1857. 2329N 08053W 00396 5013 350 013 230 226 013 00394 0000000000
1858 2330N 08052W 00397 5013 345 013 230 220 013 00394 0000000000
1858. 2331N 08051W 00396 5014 346 013 228 228 013 00393 0000000000
1859 2332N 08050W 00396 5014 348 014 226 226 014 00392 0000000000
1859. 2333N 08049W 00396 5015 343 015 228 228 015 00391 0000000000
1900 2334N 08047W 00396 5016 340 015 228 228 016 00391 0000000000
1900. 2335N 08046W 00397 5017 334 015 226 226 016 00390 0000000000
1901 2336N 08045W 00397 5017 327 015 228 228 015 00390 0000000000
1901. 2337N 08044W 00396 5018 321 015 226 226 016 00389 0000000000
1902 2338N 08043W 00396 5018 332 015 226 226 015 00389 0000000000
NNNN

[Thunder44]

449
URNT11 KWBC 291758
97779 17584 30248 80359 22900 09033 14118 /8011
RMK NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO OB 22 KWBC
LAST REPORT


NOAA Plane mission is done.

[Thunder44]

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 44 KNHC
1902. 2339N 08041W 00397 5018 333 015 226 226 015 00389 0000000000
1903 2340N 08040W 00396 5019 330 013 230 230 014 00388 0000000000
1903. 2341N 08039W 00397 5019 333 013 230 230 014 00388 0000000000
1904 2342N 08038W 00396 5020 345 013 230 230 013 00387 0000000000
1904. 2343N 08037W 00396 5020 345 012 230 230 012 00387 0000000000
1905 2344N 08036W 00396 5021 341 012 230 230 013 00386 0000000000
1905. 2345N 08034W 00396 5021 339 013 230 230 014 00385 0000000000
1906 2347N 08033W 00395 5023 331 012 230 230 012 00383 0000000000
1906. 2348N 08032W 00398 5024 336 011 234 234 012 00384 0000000000
1907 2349N 08031W 00396 5025 323 013 230 230 013 00381 0000000000
1907. 2350N 08030W 00397 5025 328 016 230 230 017 00383 0000000000
1908 2351N 08028W 00396 5026 320 017 224 224 018 00380 0000000000
1908. 2352N 08027W 00397 5027 311 017 222 222 018 00380 0000000000
1909 2353N 08026W 00397 5028 305 019 210 210 021 00379 0000000000
1909. 2354N 08025W 00395 5030 313 022 218 218 022 00376 0000000000
1910 2355N 08024W 00397 5032 318 021 208 208 021 00375 0000000000
1910. 2356N 08022W 00396 5033 324 018 220 220 019 00373 0000000000
1911 2357N 08021W 00396 5034 334 018 224 224 018 00372 0000000000
1911. 2358N 08020W 00397 5035 326 018 222 222 019 00373 0000000000
1912 2359N 08019W 00396 5036 337 015 226 226 016 00370 0000000000
NNNN



Going in for another pass.

[Thunder44]

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 45 KNHC
1912. 2401N 08018W 00396 5038 336 016 232 232 017 00369 0000000000
1913 2402N 08016W 00397 5039 334 017 230 230 018 00368 0000000000
1913. 2403N 08015W 00397 5040 334 013 230 230 014 00367 0000000000
1914 2404N 08014W 00395 5041 347 011 218 218 015 00364 0000000000
1914. 2405N 08013W 00397 5041 029 008 234 234 008 00366 0000000000
1915 2406N 08012W 00394 5041 035 008 236 236 009 00364 0000000000
1915. 2406N 08010W 00399 5042 019 008 234 234 008 00368 0000000000
1916 2405N 08008W 00395 5043 026 010 234 234 012 00362 0000000000
1916. 2405N 08007W 00395 5044 030 011 232 232 012 00362 0000000000
1917 2404N 08005W 00398 5046 035 008 232 232 009 00363 0000000000
1917. 2403N 08004W 00396 5047 098 006 234 234 007 00359 0000000000
1918 2403N 08002W 00394 5048 167 011 232 232 013 00356 0000000000
1918. 2403N 08001W 00399 5047 178 015 226 226 018 00363 0000000000
1919 2404N 08000W 00395 5047 172 022 230 230 023 00358 0000000000
1919. 2405N 07958W 00398 5045 174 024 228 228 025 00364 0000000000
1920 2406N 07957W 00395 5045 177 026 228 228 027 00361 0000000000
1920. 2408N 07956W 00396 5045 185 027 216 216 027 00361 0000000000
1921 2409N 07955W 00395 5044 184 027 226 224 028 00362 0000000000
1921. 2410N 07953W 00397 5043 179 026 244 218 027 00365 0000000000
1922 2412N 07952W 00396 5041 181 028 242 216 029 00365 0000000000
NNNN



Center pass, VDM shortly

[craptacular]

next VDM should be about 24'03"N 80'04"W

1915. 2406N 08010W 00399 5042 019 008 234 234 008 00368 0000000000
1916 2405N 08008W 00395 5043 026 010 234 234 012 00362 0000000000
1916. 2405N 08007W 00395 5044 030 011 232 232 012 00362 0000000000
1917 2404N 08005W 00398 5046 035 008 232 232 009 00363 0000000000
1917. 2403N 08004W 00396 5047 098 006 234 234 007 00359 0000000000
1918 2403N 08002W 00394 5048 167 011 232 232 013 00356 0000000000
1918. 2403N 08001W 00399 5047 178 015 226 226 018 00363 0000000000
1919 2404N 08000W 00395 5047 172 022 230 230 023 00358 000000000

[Thunder44]

632
URNT12 KNHC 291929
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/19:17:10Z
B. 24 deg 03 min N
080 deg 04 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 246 deg 022 nm
F. 312 deg 022 kt
G. 246 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 396 m
J. 24 C/ 395 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 16:27:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
;

[WmE]

632
URNT12 KNHC 291929
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/19:17:10Z
B. 24 deg 03 min N
080 deg 04 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 246 deg 022 nm
F. 312 deg 022 kt
G. 246 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 396 m
J. 24 C/ 395 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 16:27:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
;

Looking healthier!

[Thunder44]

[craptacular]

The last two VDMs seemed "clean".

17:42 23'55"N 79'55"W

19:17 24'03"N 80'04"W

edit: That's a little over 13 statute miles (or about 11.5 nautical miles) northwest (heading of 314) in about 1.5 hrs.

[Thunder44]

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 46 KNHC
1922. 2413N 07951W 00396 5040 182 027 234 222 029 00366 0000000000
1923 2414N 07950W 00396 5039 177 025 236 234 025 00367 0000000000
1923. 2415N 07949W 00397 5039 174 026 232 232 026 00368 0000000000
1924 2417N 07947W 00395 5039 169 027 230 230 029 00367 0000000000
1924. 2418N 07946W 00397 5038 163 030 230 230 031 00369 0000000000
1925 2419N 07945W 00396 5038 162 031 232 232 031 00368 0000000000
1925. 2421N 07944W 00397 5037 164 032 230 230 032 00370 0000000000
1926 2422N 07943W 00396 5037 162 031 232 232 031 00370 0000000000
1926. 2423N 07942W 00397 5036 163 032 234 234 032 00371 0000000000
1927 2425N 07940W 00397 5036 161 033 234 234 035 00371 0000000000
1927. 2426N 07939W 00397 5034 158 032 232 232 033 00373 0000000000
1928 2427N 07938W 00392 5033 155 032 234 234 032 00369 0000000000
1928. 2429N 07937W 00383 5033 155 032 234 234 033 00360 0000000000
1929 2430N 07936W 00367 5034 158 034 236 236 035 00344 0000000000
1929. 2430N 07934W 00364 5034 158 033 232 232 034 00340 0000000000
1930 2430N 07933W 00375 5034 160 032 214 214 035 00352 0000000000
1930. 2431N 07931W 00387 5033 161 035 222 222 036 00365 0000000000
1931 2432N 07930W 00404 5030 152 039 220 220 043 00384 0000000000
1931. 2433N 07929W 00389 5030 153 043 216 216 046 00369 0000000000
1932 2435N 07927W 00397 5029 152 041 220 220 041 00378 0000000000
NNNN