TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[Trugunzn]

looks like moving wnw?


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Zadok]

It looks like it's falling apart. For those that need help accepting this please study the five stages of grief.
The five stages of grief are:

1-Denial-"this can't be happening to me", looking for the former spouse in familia places, or if it is death, setting the table for the person or acting as if they are still in living there. No crying. Not accepting or even acknowledging the loss.

2-Anger-"why me?", feelings of wanting to fight back or get even with spouse of divorce, for death, anger at the deceased, blaming them for leaving.

3-Bargaining-bargaining often takes place before the loss. Attempting to make deals with the spouse who is leaving, or attempting to make deals with God to stop or change the loss. Begging, wishing, praying for them to come back.

4-Depression-overwhelming feelings of hopelessness, frustration, bitterness, self pity, mourning loss of person as well as the hopes, dreams and plans for the future. Feeling lack of control, feeling numb. Perhaps feeling suicidal.

5-Acceptance-there is a difference between resignation and acceptance. You have to accept the loss, not just try to bear it quietly. Realization that it takes two to make or break a marriage. Realization that the person is gone (in death) that it is not their fault, they didn't leave you on purpose. (even in cases of suicide, often the deceased person, was not in their right frame of mind) Finding the good that can come out of the pain of loss, finding comfort and healing. Our goals turn toward personal growth. Stay with fond memories of person.

Get help. You will survive. You will heal.

[Aquawind]

60 MPH gust reported on CMAN station in Long Key. About 15 miles from Marathon.

Where is that data?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LONF1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... 250&time=3

[Zardoz]

Am I blind or is the center, such as it is, heading WNW now?

Key West radar

[Brent]

from the orlando sent E blog

In a stunning turnaround, shuttle Atlantis is being rolled back to the launch pad after getting halfway to the Kennedy Space Center's Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA managers ordered the turnaround after the latest weather forecast showed significant weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto. More details will be posted here when available.

3:45 p.m. update: NASA apparently will attempt a pair of launch attempts on Sept. 6-7

Oh, say they have stopped the roll back to the VAB and are headed back to the launch pad. That is pretty big news. That tells me they aren't expecting much at KSC.

I think it's because the storm is very weak(and by the time it gets to the Cape will likely not be a tropical storm), not a track change. It is completely obvious this is following the NHC track.

[HurricaneHunter914]

A WNW movement would not be could for us. That would mean some possible further strengthening and closer to Central Florida.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

All you have to do is look at Water Vapor. Some dry air from Cuba is hurting the SW side. Bottom line is it spent to much time over land yesterday.

[westmoon]

One thing for sure the west side of this storm is getting wetter.

[gatorcane]

It looks like it's falling apart. For those that need help accepting this please study the five stages of grief.
The five stages of grief are:

1-Denial-"this can't be happening to me", looking for the former spouse in familia places, or if it is death, setting the table for the person or acting as if they are still in living there. No crying. Not accepting or even acknowledging the loss.

2-Anger-"why me?", feelings of wanting to fight back or get even with spouse of divorce, for death, anger at the deceased, blaming them for leaving.

3-Bargaining-bargaining often takes place before the loss. Attempting to make deals with the spouse who is leaving, or attempting to make deals with God to stop or change the loss. Begging, wishing, praying for them to come back.

4-Depression-overwhelming feelings of hopelessness, frustration, bitterness, self pity, mourning loss of person as well as the hopes, dreams and plans for the future. Feeling lack of control, feeling numb. Perhaps feeling suicidal.

5-Acceptance-there is a difference between resignation and acceptance. You have to accept the loss, not just try to bear it quietly. Realization that it takes two to make or break a marriage. Realization that the person is gone (in death) that it is not their fault, they didn't leave you on purpose. (even in cases of suicide, often the deceased person, was not in their right frame of mind) Finding the good that can come out of the pain of loss, finding comfort and healing. Our goals turn toward personal growth. Stay with fond memories of person.


Get help. You will survive. You will heal.

This is very inappropriate. This is a tropical weather forum not a psychology 101 forum.

[mettski]

very good Zadok.

[rjgator]

rjgator wrote:
60 MPH gust reported on CMAN station in Long Key. About 15 miles from Marathon.


Where is that data?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LONF1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... 250&time=3

GRXLEvel3 Allison House Data = 17:18 UTC

[gtalum]

This is very inappropriate. This is a tropical weather forum not a psychology 101 forum.

I think it was an attempt at humor.

[SouthFloridawx]

Again I will repeat....

IMO looking at recon data, satelite presentation and radar... it is likely that the intensity will not be upped and the Hurricane watches will be dropped. Intensity will be max before landfall of 50KTS maximum. The system looks like it is fairly disorganized and likely will only be mostly a rain event with some localized areas of high winds and possible tornadoes.

The system is still moving NW and will make landfall in extreme southern florida in the middle keys.

[westmoon]

gtalum,

gatorcane wrote:
This is very inappropriate. This is a tropical weather forum not a psychology 101 forum.


I think it was an attempt at humor.

I think we all need a laugh right about now!

[storms in NC]

I didn't think it was very funny. Not when we are trying to see where this TS is going. It maybe a TS and they can put out a lot of rain.

[gatorcane]

gtalum,

gatorcane wrote:
This is very inappropriate. This is a tropical weather forum not a psychology 101 forum.


I think it was an attempt at humor.

I think we all need a laugh right about now!

well if it was a joke then I'd have to laugh

[Thunder44]

I believe the center is moving NW 16mph, if not a little more than that. It's speeding up as it heads towards the South FL and the Keys.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

16 may be a little fast, may 12/13 mph or so.

[Solaris]

465
URNT12 KNHC 292042
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/20:29:00Z
B. 24 deg 19 min N
080 deg 09 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 32 deg 058 nm
F. 109 deg 042 kt
G. 031 deg 058 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 24 C/ 398 m
J. 24 C/ 392 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 19
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 19:31:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;

[mettski]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

anyone have a good vapour link so i can see how dry air destroyed the s/sw side? - am trying to learn. thanks