TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[skysummit]

[Trugunzn]

Deep convection starting to fire up. now it has 9 hours to work with that convection.

[tallywx]

one of my local mets just said that he does not agree with the NHC and think it will go into the east gulf before turning NE into FL... It looks like it may go into the gulf...Anyone agree?

I can only agree with what I see, and I see it going into the eastern Gulf as we speak. Remember it either has to stall or slow down before heading back
NE and it's still moving at quite a clip I must add.

Not necessarily. If it's rounding the base of a high pressure axis, it's still basically in the same steering flow "stream," it's just that the stream bends around the high. Thus, it could very well continue at the exact same speed while changing direction.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

A WNW movement shows on the Visible Loop. The track could move farther west and possibly a better chance of strengthening.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Great the eastern eyewall goes right over my house....TC or Hurricane it's going to be messy come the weekend. I'll hope for an easter track shift out to sea.

[chrisnnavarre]

IAW this link, I see it moving NW and at his present speed will clip the southern part of Florida in two hours and be well into the EGOM by 11pm EST.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis

[JonathanBelles]

i would put a wobble watch out! i think the nw quadrant is stongest. could it still turn wnw or w?

[Solaris]

last frames: convection rebuilding on southern side, wobble north imminent

[jaxfladude]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Per Jax, Fla Local TV Mets: NOT AS BAD AS JEANNE AND FRANCES IN 2004, heavy winds/rains starting later tomorrow thru Thursday. Things can and will change until "Ernesto" leaves our area completely.

I will not dare "Ernesto"

[bahamaswx]

I've received 5' of rain since 3pm. A real rainmaker here.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this WNW continues with a NW turn around 6-7 PM, it will still be over water.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest southern FL wind reports:

Key west - 12mph sustained

Marathon - 14mph sustained, gusts to 21mph

Homestead AFB - 16mph sustained, gusts to 25mph

Miami - 10mph sustained

So nothing bad looks to be going on right now besides generally just breezy winds and some heavy rains. However, a few areas did see strong gusts in outer bands earlier today.

TOP gust recorded today in...

Key west - 23mph

Marathon - 32mph

Homestead AFB - 38mph

Miami - 28mph

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear at least in visibles that the LLC if the 5pm position is correct has tracked a little more WNW of the official track.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Seems to still be following a more wnw track according the radar imagery

That "WNW movement" you see may just be the tilt of the vortex, as per the 5pm NHC discussion:

ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR MIGHT BE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND A WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT AS IMPLIED BY CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1500 AND 7500 FEET AS WELL AS WSR-88D RADAR.

[SouthFloridawx]

Posted on the next page.

[WxGuy1]

INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.3N 80.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W 55 KT

The first 55kt... INLAND point is pretty soon after landfall, and the 55KT (no inland) point is pretty soon after re-emergence into the Atlantic...

So the NHC 5pm advisory has this coming ashore as nearly a 55kt TS, crossing the peninsula over about 18-24 hours, then coming back out into the Atlantic as a 50-55kt TS? I'm sorry, but I find it hard to believe that Ernesto will essentially remain as a strong tropical storm while spending 18-24 hours over land.

[skysummit]

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well, It sure looks like a developing TS to me, curved banding in all quadrants and some convention firing on the SW near the center. The question is if it persists for another 4-8 hours...Probably will if it stays on current track just a hair longer i.e. just west of the NHC track and the center stays over water.

[THead]

Strongest band so far, just offshore Miami, and affecting the upper keys now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[marcane_1973]

Mark Sudduth and the boys are in the keys. They were just laughing at this storm. The highest wind gust they have recorded so far is 28 mph. What a joke. This is a deoression not even a TS in my opinion.