TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[storms in NC]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this continues WNW and then NW around 8 PM, it will still be over water.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 24.3 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 105
miles...165 km...east of Key West Florida and about 105 miles...165
km...south of Miami Florida.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue today and tonight. On
this track...the center will be nearing the Florida Keys and
extreme southern Florida tonight. However...rains and squalls with
tropical storm force winds are arriving well in advance of the
center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before the center moves
over land.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

It's on the back side of the ridge and should continue to move NW if not more NNW at a faster rate as the night goes on.


As noted below in the latest VDM's and radar imagery, this system is likely to turn more NNW and more north. It may start turning more NNW sooner than expected on the track.

You can see the ridge moving more quickly to the east.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

I would not doubt a landfall a little farther to the east than indicated by the NHC forecast track.

I just put the new VDM and the last two here. It's looks like it's speeding up and turning more to the NNW.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Mark Sudduth and the boys are in the keys. They were just laughing at this storm. The highest wind gust they have recorded so far is 28 mph. What a joke. This is a deoression not even a TS in my opinion.

No recon recorded that it is infact a tropical storm. With 49 knots flight level=39.3 knots at the surface. Which makes it a 40 knot tropical storm. The tropical storm force winds are with in a small area. This is looking better on satellite. But no time.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Actually what I meant was that it looks like it has been wobbling to the WNW, I'm sorry.

[Opal storm]

Mark Sudduth and the boys are in the keys. They were just laughing at this storm. The highest wind gust they have recorded so far is 28 mph. What a joke. This is a deoression not even a TS in my opinion.

The strongest winds haven't even come ashore yet.Let's how much they'll be laughing later tonight.

[chrisnnavarre]

INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.3N 80.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W 55 KT

The first 55kt... INLAND point is pretty soon after landfall, and the 55KT (no inland) point is pretty soon after re-emergence into the Atlantic...

So the NHC 5pm advisory has this coming ashore as nearly a 55kt TS, crossing the peninsula over about 18-24 hours, then coming back out into the Atlantic as a 50-55kt TS? I'm sorry, but I find it hard to believe that Ernesto will essentially remain as a strong tropical storm while spending 18-24 hours over land.

Based on what I see curently on Visual SAT. I find any of those points hard to believe as well. But we'll see.... like I said in an earlier post, I'll give it till 11:00pm EST, if it's well in the eastern GOM you can throw out NHC's forecast all together. Then start over with ole Ernesto.

[superfly]

Mark Sudduth and the boys are in the keys. They were just laughing at this storm. The highest wind gust they have recorded so far is 28 mph. What a joke. This is a deoression not even a TS in my opinion.

The west side (the side the Keys are on) doesn't have any TS force winds. The TS winds are in small areas on the east side.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looks to be moving more northerly on the last few radar frames.

[skysummit]

Mark Sudduth and the boys are in the keys. They were just laughing at this storm. The highest wind gust they have recorded so far is 28 mph. What a joke. This is a deoression not even a TS in my opinion.

The strongest winds haven't even come ashore yet.Let's how much they'll be laughing later tonight.

Well, if it stays 45 - 50mph, that's one of those fun type of storms. They probably will be laughing!

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks to be moving more northerly on the last few radar frames.

Please see my post above.

[feederband]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[webke]

It's on the back side of the ridge and should continue to move NW if not more NNW at a faster rate as the night goes on.


As noted below in the latest VDM's and radar imagery, this system is likely to turn more NNW and more north. It may start turning more NNW sooner than expected on the track.

You can see the ridge moving more quickly to the east.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

I would not doubt a landfall a little farther to the east than indicated by the NHC forecast track.


Thunder44 wrote:


I just put the new VDM and the last two here. It's looks like it's speeding up and turning more to the NNW.

If this does track a little to the east of the NHC's track do you think it will continue that track and make a second landfall in North Carolina instead of Charleston, and will the chance for this to intensify increase.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Some deeper convection beginning to fire on the SE side.

[Brent]

INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.3N 80.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W 55 KT

The first 55kt... INLAND point is pretty soon after landfall, and the 55KT (no inland) point is pretty soon after re-emergence into the Atlantic...

So the NHC 5pm advisory has this coming ashore as nearly a 55kt TS, crossing the peninsula over about 18-24 hours, then coming back out into the Atlantic as a 50-55kt TS? I'm sorry, but I find it hard to believe that Ernesto will essentially remain as a strong tropical storm while spending 18-24 hours over land.

Agreed.

[AZRainman]

Recon Data Plot

[Sanibel]

2006 is wearing me out. Now this one is broadening and spreading out after showing tightening earlier.

I'm still watching for it to seek a coastal track.

[SouthFloridawx]

It's on the back side of the ridge and should continue to move NW if not more NNW at a faster rate as the night goes on.


As noted below in the latest VDM's and radar imagery, this system is likely to turn more NNW and more north. It may start turning more NNW sooner than expected on the track.

You can see the ridge moving more quickly to the east.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

I would not doubt a landfall a little farther to the east than indicated by the NHC forecast track.


Thunder44 wrote:


I just put the new VDM and the last two here. It's looks like it's speeding up and turning more to the NNW.

If this does track a little to the east of the NHC's track do you think it will continue that track and make a second landfall in North Carolina instead of Charleston, and will the chance for this to intensify increase.

I don't see why this couldn't exit around daytona beach and skurt the SC coast and up into the N/C - S/C boarder and cause a lot of inland flooding. It's possible Ernesto could restrengthen to Upper tropical storm force when re-entering the coast a second time.

[cheezyWXguy]

INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.3N 80.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W 55 KT

The first 55kt... INLAND point is pretty soon after landfall, and the 55KT (no inland) point is pretty soon after re-emergence into the Atlantic...

So the NHC 5pm advisory has this coming ashore as nearly a 55kt TS, crossing the peninsula over about 18-24 hours, then coming back out into the Atlantic as a 50-55kt TS? I'm sorry, but I find it hard to believe that Ernesto will essentially remain as a strong tropical storm while spending 18-24 hours over land.

Maybe its because itll be over the everglades at least half of the time?

[THead]

Looks to still be heading for a Key Largo or just a bit south of there landfall.

[Solaris]

miami about to get some nasty squalls