TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing a tiny eye trying to curl up on the east side of the broad center.

[SouthFloridawx]

INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.3N 80.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W 55 KT

The first 55kt... INLAND point is pretty soon after landfall, and the 55KT (no inland) point is pretty soon after re-emergence into the Atlantic...

So the NHC 5pm advisory has this coming ashore as nearly a 55kt TS, crossing the peninsula over about 18-24 hours, then coming back out into the Atlantic as a 50-55kt TS? I'm sorry, but I find it hard to believe that Ernesto will essentially remain as a strong tropical storm while spending 18-24 hours over land.

Maybe its because itll be over the everglades at least half of the time?

This storm did not strengthen over 86-88 degree waters in the Gulf Stream, it may have a chance just before it moves inland but, it is going to speed up and then eventually merge with a front.

IMO it is possible to strengthen just before and during landfall.

[storms in NC]

Can someone tell why we have a Hurricane watch up and Fla only a TS. Pros please ring in

[Sanibel]

Gulf Stream boosting can be delayed. But 2006 owns this one.

[CronkPSU]

this is the little sotrm that wouldn't

all the times it could have intensified, it decided not to and all the times it had open water, it found and stayed on land

[Bgator]

Im here in miami waiting for this squall to come through, i want some action im bored...but the sky is getting dark, and im bracing for it!

[boca]

Funny thing is were supposed to get 5 to 10 inches of rain. I'm in Palm Bch County and the rain is dissipating as it reaches the coast. I'm predicting no were near what their saying. This whole situation pisses me off because I'm missing work and my kidsout of school because of this non event system that can't get its act together.

[SouthFloridawx]

Can someone tell why we have a Hurricane watch up and Fla only a TS. Pros please ring in

We are currently under a hurricane watch.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... L&site=MFL

[THead]

Can someone tell why we have a Hurricane watch up and Fla only a TS. Pros please ring in

Fla. is also under a hurricane watch.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

[StormWarning1]

Radar and satellite pretty much show Ernesto is moving inland right now. The heavy convection to the North of the center is moving over the upper keys and some more from the Northeast is approaching the Florida southeast coast. A large area around the center is actually clearing out of convection and cloud cover.
I would be surprised if any reporting stations record sustained tropical force winds beyond the keys.

[Josephine96]

Because days ago there was still a chance of Ernesto becoming a Cat 1. Plus there is still the chance {if he strenghtens enough} of hurricane force gusts..

[boca]

I have no idea why were under a hurricane watch I don't have anything nice to say about this whole situation.

[Thunder44]

Looks to be moving more northerly on the last few radar frames.

That would cocur with the latest recon fix. I estimate a short-term motion about NNW 17mph. Will have to see if this a general movement when next fix comes out.

[webke]

I remember Flyod quite well, as it cut our county basically in half due to the flood waters, I hope this moves a lot faster than that and the flooding is not as widespread, I am concerned about the winds I know the damage that even a tropical storm can to to homes along a unprotected shore, I spent many days providing estimates for roof repairs after Charley which at that time had gusts to 50 MPH went through the NC/SC border area.
Thanks for the input,

[DelrayMorris]

Can someone tell why we have a Hurricane watch up and Fla only a TS. Pros please ring in

Actually, I'm (on the East Coast of Florida) in a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch area right now. They have also issued Hurricane Watches further up the east coast due to the possibility that it will strengthen after it leaves the Florida Coast.

So, technically, we are both under a Hurricane Watch (a possibility of Hurricane Force winds of 74 mph or more in the next 36 hours), but Florida has the added TS Warning to indicate that Tropical Storm conditions are imminent (I think that's 24 hours, but someone can correct me) in South Florida.

Hope that helps.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I like the eastern track across FL. Looking at radar more northerly course. That's actually what GFS had 2 days ago.

[THead]

Funny thing is were supposed to get 5 to 10 inches of rain. I'm in Palm Bch County and the rain is dissipating as it reaches the coast. I'm predicting no were near what their saying. This whole situation pisses me off because I'm missing work and my kidsout of school because of this non event system that can't get its act together.

You'll probably get most of that between 2-5am tonight as the "core" of this disturbance passes you. Good sleepin weather.

[JonathanBelles]

TITAN shows a west turn and brings it up the west coast and makes landfall near the sarasota area. TITAN is a very good model. it forecaste charley's turn 20 hours ahead of time and forecasted only 3 miles off of katrina's final landfall point.

[storms in NC]

The shuttle is moving back to the launch pad because the E is going to be west of KSC, according to local news. Does that mean a west shift of the track?

Just seen on TV they are putting the shuttle back in hanger

[marcane_1973]

Mark Sudduth and the boys are in the keys. They were just laughing at this storm. The highest wind gust they have recorded so far is 28 mph. What a joke. This is a deoression not even a TS in my opinion.

The strongest winds haven't even come ashore yet.Let's how much they'll be laughing later tonight.

ummm....Mark and the boys have been in winds 140 plus sitting in their SUV so yes they will be laughing and cutting up and having a great time like they always do together.