TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[CronkPSU]

that makes sense, why risk keeping it out there?

[JonathanBelles]

Mark Sudduth and the boys are in the keys. They were just laughing at this storm. The highest wind gust they have recorded so far is 28 mph. What a joke. This is a deoression not even a TS in my opinion.

The strongest winds haven't even come ashore yet.Let's how much they'll be laughing later tonight.

ummm....Mark and the boys have been in winds 140 plus sitting in their SUV so yes they will be laughing and cutting up and having a great time like they always do together.

140+?

[brunota2003]

I like the eastern track across FL. Looking at radar more northerly course. That's actually what GFS had 2 days ago.

so what you are saying is basicially it looks to be going further east than currently thought? so that would mean the forecast would need to be shifted to the east or would the second landfall point remain the same?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Very possible. We'll see.

[StormWarning1]

TITAN shows a west turn and brings it up the west coast and makes landfall near the sarasota area. TITAN is a very good model. it forecaste charley's turn 20 hours ahead of time and forecasted only 3 miles off of katrina's final landfall point.

It's wrong this time.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I AGREE!! It's moving north already.

[Eyewall]

why has this thing not intensified..
looks much stronger than 45 mph

[SouthFloridawx]

I like the eastern track across FL. Looking at radar more northerly course. That's actually what GFS had 2 days ago.

so what you are saying is basicially it looks to be going further east than currently thought? so that would mean the forecast would need to be shifted to the east or would the second landfall point remain the same?

This is what I think is generally going to happen, with a shift here or the a little bit... and on the longer range I think it could possibly go father east.

[stormtruth]

why has this thing not intensified..
looks much stronger than 45 mph

The center is too broad. It didn't tighten up enough to strengthen much.

[The_OD_42]

TITAN shows a west turn and brings it up the west coast and makes landfall near the sarasota area. TITAN is a very good model. it forecaste charley's turn 20 hours ahead of time and forecasted only 3 miles off of katrina's final landfall point.

It's wrong this time.

It's not just TITAN. VIPIR and the rest of the models that the Tampa news stations use all show rougly the same path. Not saying that they are correct, just saying that all of those are basically shooting for the same place.

[JonathanBelles]

im not seeing a northerly turn

[gtsmith]

seeing north motion over the last few frames of the miami nexrad base reflectivity radar...max mayfield just called this a mediocre storm on WPBF 25 and didn't expect much from it.

[JonathanBelles]

seeing north motion over the last few frames of the miami nexrad base reflectivity radar...max mayfield just called this a mediocre storm on WPBF 25 and didn't expect much from it.

dont use radar! visible is much better

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

seeing north motion over the last few frames of the miami nexrad base reflectivity radar...max mayfield just called this a mediocre storm on WPBF 25 and didn't expect much from it.

dont use radar! visible is much better

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

why would visible be better when a storm can be picked up on radar? Radar beats visible by a long shot when it comes to approaching TCs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

seeing north motion over the last few frames of the miami nexrad base reflectivity radar...max mayfield just called this a mediocre storm on WPBF 25 and didn't expect much from it.

dont use radar! visible is much better

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I hope your joking??

[SouthFloridawx]

seeing north motion over the last few frames of the miami nexrad base reflectivity radar...max mayfield just called this a mediocre storm on WPBF 25 and didn't expect much from it.

dont use radar! visible is much better

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Radar is much better as the broad circulation is coming much closer and is lower and lower to the surface.

I'm sorry I'm just not seeing a westward movement. I'm seeing a more northerly movement.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Moving north now..

[gtsmith]

seeing north motion over the last few frames of the miami nexrad base reflectivity radar...max mayfield just called this a mediocre storm on WPBF 25 and didn't expect much from it.

dont use radar! visible is much better

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I know I know...been hearing this all day...but i thought now that it is closer to the mia base that it's accuracy would be improve a bit.

See! - the Pros back me up on this one!

[SouthFloridawx]

I am seeing a more NW-NNW movement and not totally north. If this hugs the east coast it could likely produce a fairly decent amount of rain in the state.

[caribepr]

Funny thing is were supposed to get 5 to 10 inches of rain. I'm in Palm Bch County and the rain is dissipating as it reaches the coast. I'm predicting no were near what their saying. This whole situation pisses me off because I'm missing work and my kidsout of school because of this non event system that can't get its act together.

Boca Boca Boca...you've been around the weather scene a lot, you know the drill. Take a deep breath, remember reality, coulda woulda shoulda and darn glad it wasn't...remember??