TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

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Damar91
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#101 Postby Damar91 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:29 pm

You can just hear Typhoon Ioke looking at Ernesto and going....... :fools:
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#102 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:30 pm

SCMedic wrote:I love the quote... "It's about over for him.."

Maybe for Floridians, but for us in the Carolina's, this could still be interesting.


Maybe not if he go over land there will be not much left of him. If he moves fast over land then a out side chance
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#103 Postby THead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:31 pm

Category6 wrote:This is the biggest non-event I've ever gone through here in South Fl. I was expecting a decent TS with winds of 60 mph. I dunno where the heck the supposed 45 mph winds are located. The center is just offshore and the winds outside are barely 15 mph! The strongest I've experienced were about an hour ago, when they gusted to about 25 mph. I'm just worried people will become complacent about future systems when you have a major dud like Ernesto.


Unfortunately people become complacent no matter what. We have short memories. Biggest non-event I went through was probably Floyd. And I wasn't one bit dissappointed about missing his monster-nous.
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#104 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:31 pm

what are the chances of it reforming a new center again after the deep convection? Just about everytime it blew up it reformed a new center.

Image
Last edited by Trugunzn on Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#105 Postby hial2 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:32 pm

[quote="jschlitz"][quote="rnbaida"]Ok. Max mayfield just said that hurricane watches will be discontinued.... this storm sucks!!! What a waste of time....[/quote

I cant believe Max said that while the storm is still not inland!!...If he really said that and this thing ramps up before landfalling..well,he might retire before January..

If i remember correctly, this has a precedent...Irene in 1999
Last edited by hial2 on Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#106 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:33 pm

hial2 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
rnbaida wrote:Ok. Max mayfield just said that hurricane watches will be discontinued.... this storm sucks!!! What a waste of time....[/quote

I cant believe Max said that while the storm is still not inland!!...If he really said that and this thing ramps up before landfalling..well,he might retire before January..


lol i agree!
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#107 Postby Damar91 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:33 pm

I know. It really seems like he wants one last shot.
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#108 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:36 pm

Landfall minues 1 Hour!!! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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#109 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:38 pm

what are the chances of it reforming a new center again after the deep convection? Just about everytime it blew up it reformed a new center.


If it does to the east we here on the east coast are in trouble
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#110 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:39 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

It looks like the center did form farther west.
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#111 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:39 pm

not going to reform another center....almost on the coast now.....
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#112 Postby Stormavoider » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:40 pm

storms in NC wrote:
what are the chances of it reforming a new center again after the deep convection? Just about everytime it blew up it reformed a new center.


If it does to the east we here on the east coast are in trouble


Are you looking at this?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes
How can there be any question about a center.
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#113 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:40 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Landfall minues 1 Hour!!! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes


is it just south of key largo? If it is then thats furthur east then NHC ploted
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#114 Postby THead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:42 pm

Trugunzn wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Landfall minues 1 Hour!!! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes


is it just south of key largo? If it is then thats furthur east then NHC ploted


Yes, just south of Key Largo.
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#115 Postby Praxus » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:44 pm

Looks better than it has in a long time. Isn't it supposed to be weakening now ? Hmm..

edit - wow some brown in the latest IR

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
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#116 Postby SapphireSea » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:46 pm

Trugunzn wrote:what are the chances of it reforming a new center again after the deep convection? Just about everytime it blew up it reformed a new center.


Quite contrary. Everytime it blew up new convection it was near the center, but it never wrapped around nor it persisted very long. Unusual time it did persist had a reverse effect on increasing pressures. EG. This late morning it got some persistant convection yet pressures went up to 1008mb. Then back down to 1005.

This storm was probobly an open wave for a long time before and winds were just thunderstorm specific until it reorganized this morning after making it back on water. It is a true TS now though no doubt about it, but it will be short lived. It will merge with the front before it attacks carolinas IMO.
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#117 Postby rnbaida » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:48 pm

651
URNT12 KNHC 292345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/23:28:20Z
B. 24 deg 45 min N
080 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1466 m
D. 20 kt
E. 312 deg 076 nm
F. 039 deg 034 kt
G. 312 deg 041 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1522 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 1805A ERNESTO OB 04
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 23:16:20 Z
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tgenius
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#118 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:48 pm

PRessure drop.. interesting...
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#119 Postby stormtruth » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:48 pm

Pressure down to 1004 now. Is that the lowest for the day?
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#120 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:49 pm

A beautiful night in Miami to sleep soundly.
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