TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[MBismyPlayground]

Ernesto doesn't appear to be weakening much going over the warm Everglades - this may not bode well for the carolinas down the road.

SSssshhhh...don't say that. I keep tracking this crazy thing and I am just about lost now. I just am trying to determine how my business is gonna work out for this holiday weekend and I think Ernie knows it...regardless I am prepared for just about anything. Hard to get alot of good info here locally as the news doesn't want to scare the tourists away.

[BUD]

we have a lot less people on the forum today than yesterday...not many people intereseted on ernesto... I cant wait until it moves off the coast....

Hey,this is very typical, when the storm does not effect them, they tend to stop paying attention. I am waiting for the thing to move as well only because I want some idea of where it is going. But I do want it to hurry up and get on with it before the weekend!!!

I with you on that.So I know if my little girl has school or not.Plus have to take my wife to work

[boca]

Looks like the center is over Western Broward County moving due north.

[westmoon]

Stormavoider,

I think it had to work on getting organized before it could strengthen.

I agree but the NHC was sure it would get organized & strengthen, what pervented it? I didn't see that there was much against it, I'am just trying to figure out what happened that I missed.

[cinlfla]

KBBOCA,

Lake O was 87 deg Last week when we went through it in the boat

Lake Okeechobee is by Belle Glade. but looking at radar I don't think thats where the center is.

[storms in NC]

I think It is going to exit off or near Melbourne or south of thereJMO

[storms in NC]

KBBOCA,

Lake O was 87 deg Last week when we went through it in the boat

Lake Okeechobee is by Belle Glade. but looking at radar I don't think thats where the center is.

It is south of there.

[gatorcane]

Stormavoider,

I think it had to work on getting organized before it could strengthen.

I agree but the NHC was sure it would get organized & strengthen, what pervented it? I didn't see that there was much against it, I'am just trying to figure out what happened that I missed.

First it stayed on land too long, this caused the core to really get pounded. When it finally emerged into the straits it had *alot* of rebuilding to do. In addition the ULL that was just north of Ernesto injected enough dry air to just keep in in check. Although the ULL was largely dissipated once Ernesto was in the straits, at this point it was too late.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like the center is over Western Broward County moving due north.

I think your right. if you look at WV and visibles, you can see the cloudmass shifting around the edge of the ridge. Overall mass of cloud movement is mostly north with a hint of east component. This looks like the turn. I'll go out on a limb and say at this point it will exit the peninsula before Cape Canaveral. If Ernesto refuses to weaken much over land, he will have a few more surprises for us by Friday.

[storms in NC]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
531 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

GEORGETOWN AND HORRY

AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

BRUNSWICK

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SANTEE RIVER IN
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the center is over Western Broward County moving due north.

I think your right. if you look at WV and visibles, you can see the cloudmass shifting around the edge of the ridge. Overall mass of cloud movement is mostly north with a hint of east component. This looks like the turn. I'll go out on a limb and say at this point it will exit the peninsula before Cape Canaveral. If Ernesto refuses to weaken much over land, he will have a few more surprises for us by Friday.

agreed, I doubt Ernesto will lose much punch over the flat Southern part of the peninsula - my winds still gusting to around 35-40 mph

[SCMedic]

Some of the new models are shifting back west towards Charleston....

There's a thread about it in the analysis section...


I also think it's funny how we've lost people today. People that are actual weather enthusiasts, don't tend to care where it makes landfall or goes afterwards, they keep watching..

All these..."florida is the only state" people annoy the crap out of me..

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060830 1200 060831 0000 060831 1200 060901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 81.0W 28.0N 81.3W 30.7N 80.5W 33.6N 79.2W
BAMM 26.0N 81.0W 27.7N 81.0W 29.9N 80.0W 32.3N 78.6W
A98E 26.0N 81.0W 27.7N 81.0W 29.9N 80.7W 32.4N 80.5W
LBAR 26.0N 81.0W 27.7N 81.1W 29.8N 80.6W 32.3N 79.7W
SHIP 30KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060901 1200 060902 1200 060903 1200 060904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.5N 78.0W 41.8N 74.4W 44.5N 66.6W 40.0N 56.7W
BAMM 34.8N 77.8W 39.6N 76.2W 44.0N 72.6W 45.5N 65.3W
A98E 34.8N 80.2W 38.8N 78.7W 43.5N 73.2W 43.6N 60.1W
LBAR 35.1N 78.4W 39.9N 74.7W 43.5N 73.2W 45.5N 66.1W
SHIP 48KTS 58KTS 62KTS 59KTS
DSHP 32KTS 28KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.0N LONCUR = 81.0W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 24.8N LONM12 = 80.4W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.1N LONM24 = 79.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


12:00z Models downgrade to TD so expect a downgrade at 11 AM.

[Colossus]

Some of the new models are shifting back west towards Charleston....

There's a thread about it in the analysis section...


I also think it's funny how we've lost people today. People that are actual weather enthusiasts, don't tend to care where it makes landfall or goes afterwards, they keep watching..

All these..."florida is the only state" people annoy the crap out of me..

I watching out for it. I have friends and co-workers in the Carolina's and have been alerting them with each new tidbit I receive.

[Thunder44]

Looks like the center is over Western Broward County moving due north.

The center looks less defined on radar. Hard to tell what direction it's exactly going. Although it does looks generally moving northward.

[rnbaida]

ERNESTO IS NOW A TD..... NOW WE MUST FORECAST WHAT HAPPENS IN THE ATLANTIC.... I THINK WE MAY HAVE A STRONG TS BEFORE LANDFALL IN SC.

[storms in NC]

Do you think it will build back up to a TS when it goes off shore

[sfwx]

"All these..."florida is the only state" people annoy the crap out of me.."


Please don't lump all of us in one statement. I'll be here everyday. I'm not a wishcaster and I don't post my "gut feelings". There are many, many people that just read without posting much. Go put your shutters up now, I'm on my way out to take mine down.

Eric

[rnbaida]

Do you think it will build back up to a TS when it goes off shore

i think so but i dont see a hurricane...

[rnbaida]

Do you think it will build back up to a TS when it goes off shore

i think so but i dont see a hurricane...

Actually i think it will have a hard time coming back to a TS